NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, September 24, 2016 (3 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     3     3    3    3
   2 Ohio St          98.833    2.333    2.0     3     3    3    0
   3 Clemson          98.000    3.000    3.0     3     3    3    0
   4 Stanford         97.167    3.667    4.0     3     3    3    0
   5 Texas A&M        93.833    8.333    6.0     3     2    1    0
   6 Wisconsin        93.667    7.667    7.0     3     2    1    0
   7 Houston          93.333    7.333    8.0     3     3    0    0
   8 Louisville       93.333    8.333    7.0     3     2    0    0
   9 Michigan         91.667    8.667   10.0     3     3    0    0
  10 Tennessee        91.667    8.667   10.0     3     2    1    0
  11 Florida St       89.333   11.333   12.0     3     1    0    0
  12 Baylor           87.667   13.667   13.0     3     1    0    0
  13 Utah             85.833   16.333   14.0     3     0    0    0
  14 Mississippi      85.333   15.333   16.0     3     0    0    0
  15 Arkansas         85.167   16.667   15.0     3     0    0    0
  16 Michigan St      84.000   16.000   18.0     3     1    0    0
  17 Washington       82.500   20.000   17.0     3     0    0    0
  18 Nebraska         82.167   19.667   18.0     3     0    0    0
  19 Oklahoma         80.167   21.667   20.0     3     0    0    0
  20 Georgia          79.500   22.000   21.0     3     0    0    0
  21 TCU              78.833   22.333   22.0     3     0    0    0
  22 LSU              78.333   21.333   24.0     3     0    0    0
  23 North Carolina   76.833   23.333   25.0     3     0    0    0
  24 Florida          75.833   25.333   25.0     2     0    0    0
  25 Auburn           75.333   25.333   26.0     2     0    0    0
  26 Navy             75.333   25.333   26.0     3     0    0    0
  27 Arizona St       74.667   25.667   27.0     2     0    0    0
  28 Miami FL         74.000   27.000   27.0     3     0    0    0
  29 Iowa             71.000   28.000   32.0     1     0    0    0
  30 UCLA             70.833   31.333   29.0     2     0    0    0
  31 West Virginia    69.333   30.333   33.0     1     0    0    0
  32 W Michigan       69.333   31.333   32.0     1     0    0    0
  33 San Diego St     68.667   27.667   37.0     1     1    0    0
  34 Oregon           67.167   34.667   33.0     0     0    0    0
  35 Virginia Tech    65.833   36.333   34.0     0     0    0    0
  36 Memphis          64.667   36.667   36.0     0     0    0    0
  37 USC              64.667   35.667   37.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Toledo           64.167   37.667   36.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Boise St         63.667   37.667   37.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Oklahoma St      59.667   41.667   41.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Georgia Tech     59.333   43.333   40.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Mississippi St   57.667   43.667   43.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Pittsburgh       57.000   43.000   45.0     0     0    0    0
  44 South Florida    56.833   46.333   42.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Minnesota        56.667   44.667   44.0     0     0    0    0
  46 California       55.333   47.333   44.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Notre Dame       54.333   46.333   47.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Cincinnati       53.667   48.667   46.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Texas            53.333   49.333   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Wake Forest      50.333   50.333   51.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Colorado         50.167   50.667   51.0     0     0    0    0
  52 BYU              49.500   52.000   51.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Kansas St        48.167   52.667   53.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Texas Tech       47.333   54.333   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Penn St          46.000   55.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Air Force        45.167   55.667   56.0     0     0    0    0
  57 WKU              44.000   58.000   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Washington St    41.833   60.333   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Northwestern     41.667   57.667   61.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Duke             41.500   60.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  61 NC State         38.500   62.000   63.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Appalachian St   38.333   62.333   63.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Maryland         38.333   63.333   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Arizona          37.833   63.333   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Missouri         36.500   62.000   67.0     0     0    0    0
  66 C Michigan       36.333   65.333   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 South Carolina   34.167   67.667   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Vanderbilt       34.000   67.000   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Ga Southern      33.500   65.000   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Tulsa            30.333   70.333   71.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Troy             30.333   74.333   67.0     0     0    0    0
  72 MTSU             29.000   71.000   73.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Indiana          28.667   72.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 East Carolina    26.000   77.000   73.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Southern Miss    25.167   75.667   76.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Rutgers          24.500   75.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Temple           22.667   78.667   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Syracuse         22.500   79.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Utah St          20.333   79.333   82.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Kentucky         19.833   82.333   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Akron            18.500   83.000   82.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Illinois         16.000   82.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Marshall         15.833   84.333   86.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Virginia         15.833   86.333   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Boston College   15.667   86.667   84.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Louisiana Tech   15.000   85.000   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Connecticut      14.500   87.000   86.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Bowling Green    14.500   84.000   89.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Purdue           14.500   86.000   87.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Colorado St      12.500   89.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Iowa St          10.167   92.667   89.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Ohio             10.167   88.667   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Nevada           10.000   92.000   90.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Ball St           9.500   92.000   91.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Army              8.500   93.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Oregon St         8.000   96.000   90.0     0     0    0    0
  97 SMU               5.500   97.000   94.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Tulane            5.333   96.333   95.0     0     0    0    0
  99 South Alabama     2.333   98.333   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 UCF               0.333  101.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 N Illinois        0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 ULL              -0.167  100.333  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 San Jose St      -0.833  102.667  101.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Arkansas St      -3.500  102.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Wyoming          -4.000  106.000  104.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Idaho            -4.833  106.667  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 New Mexico       -5.167  104.333  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Texas St         -5.833  106.667  107.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Georgia St       -7.000  110.000  106.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Fresno St        -8.667  108.333  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Old Dominion     -8.833  109.667  110.0     0     0    0    0
 112 E Michigan      -10.167  110.333  112.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Buffalo         -11.333  111.667  113.0     0     0    0    0
 114 ULM             -14.500  117.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Massachusetts   -14.500  116.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Hawaii          -16.667  118.333  117.0     0     0    0    0
 117 FL Atlantic     -17.000  118.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 118 North Texas     -17.333  117.667  119.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Kansas          -17.500  119.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 UNLV            -18.333  118.667  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kent            -19.167  119.333  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 UT San Antonio  -20.000  120.000  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 New Mexico St   -21.000  120.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 124 UTEP            -21.333  121.667  123.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Miami OH        -21.833  122.667  123.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Rice            -23.833  123.667  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Florida Intl    -26.167  127.333  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Charlotte       -26.667  127.333  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking Data missing
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings Data missing
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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