NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, October 13, 2018 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.750    1.500    1.0     8     8    8    5
   2 Clemson          98.938    2.125    2.0     8     8    8    2
   3 Ohio St          96.875    4.750    3.5     8     8    6    0
   4 LSU              95.875    5.250    5.0     8     8    5    0
   5 Notre Dame       95.625    5.750    5.0     8     7    4    1
   6 Michigan         93.938    7.125    7.0     8     8    0    0
   7 Georgia          93.375    8.250    7.0     8     6    2    0
   8 Florida          92.188    9.625    8.0     8     6    1    0
   9 Oklahoma         91.812    9.375    9.0     8     5    2    0
  10 Texas A&M        88.312   12.375   13.0     8     2    2    0
  11 Kentucky         88.125   13.250   12.5     8     4    2    0
  12 Texas            87.438   15.125   12.0     8     1    0    0
  13 Iowa             85.875   15.250   15.0     8     1    0    0
  14 NC State         84.062   19.375   14.5     7     1    0    0
  15 Washington       83.438   18.125   17.0     8     1    0    0
  16 UCF              82.000   20.500   17.5     7     0    0    0
  17 Mississippi St   81.500   19.500   19.5     7     0    0    0
  18 Duke             81.062   21.375   18.5     7     0    0    0
  19 Stanford         81.000   23.500   16.5     7     1    0    0
  20 Penn St          80.500   21.500   19.5     6     1    0    0
  21 West Virginia    79.875   21.750   20.5     7     0    0    0
  22 Utah             77.250   23.000   24.5     8     0    0    0
  23 Texas Tech       74.562   26.375   26.5     6     1    0    0
  24 Washington St    73.000   30.000   26.0     5     0    0    0
  25 Cincinnati       71.750   30.500   28.0     6     0    0    0
  26 USC              71.562   29.875   29.0     6     0    0    0
  27 South Carolina   70.250   31.500   30.0     5     0    0    0
  28 Oregon           68.250   31.000   34.5     3     0    0    0
  29 Miami FL         67.688   31.625   35.0     3     0    0    0
  30 Fresno St        67.625   33.750   33.0     3     0    0    0
  31 Wisconsin        67.438   32.125   35.0     3     0    0    0
  32 San Diego St     67.000   35.000   33.0     4     0    0    0
  33 Iowa St          66.938   34.125   34.0     2     1    0    0
  34 Army             66.875   33.250   35.0     2     1    0    0
  35 Michigan St      66.688   33.625   35.0     2     0    0    0
  36 Mississippi      65.875   33.250   37.0     3     0    0    0
  37 Auburn           65.625   38.250   32.5     1     0    0    0
  38 TCU              63.812   37.375   37.0     2     0    0    0
  39 South Florida    62.562   41.375   35.5     3     0    0    0
  40 Appalachian St   61.625   37.750   41.0     2     1    0    0
  41 Colorado         60.500   40.500   40.5     2     0    0    0
  42 Utah St          59.875   40.250   42.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Boston College   59.688   42.625   40.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Maryland         58.500   41.500   43.5     2     0    0    0
  45 Missouri         58.250   44.000   41.5     2     0    0    0
  46 Syracuse         55.562   45.875   45.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Virginia Tech    53.938   45.125   49.0     1     0    0    0
  48 Boise St         53.438   46.125   49.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Virginia         52.688   48.125   48.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Houston          48.938   53.625   50.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Buffalo          48.500   52.500   52.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Northwestern     47.875   52.750   53.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Arizona St       47.875   52.250   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 North Texas      46.938   54.125   54.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Minnesota        46.875   54.250   54.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Tennessee        45.312   54.375   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Indiana          44.312   58.875   54.5     0     0    0    0
  58 Baylor           44.062   56.875   57.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Oklahoma St      41.562   58.875   60.0     1     0    0    0
  60 Purdue           41.500   59.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 BYU              41.438   58.125   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Vanderbilt       38.000   60.000   66.0     0     0    0    0
  63 UAB              38.000   62.500   63.5     0     0    0    0
  64 Kansas St        36.938   65.125   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Ga Southern      35.375   65.750   65.5     1     0    0    0
  66 W Michigan       34.938   65.125   67.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Wake Forest      33.875   66.750   67.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Florida St       33.688   66.625   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Louisiana Tech   33.500   65.500   69.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Temple           33.250   68.000   67.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Georgia Tech     32.000   68.000   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Pittsburgh       30.938   69.125   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Troy             28.250   71.500   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 N Illinois       27.375   74.750   72.5     0     0    0    0
  75 UCLA             27.000   75.000   73.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Memphis          25.188   75.125   76.5     0     0    0    0
  77 E Michigan       23.875   76.750   77.5     0     0    0    0
  78 Florida Intl     23.438   77.625   77.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Marshall         23.000   77.500   78.5     0     0    0    0
  80 FL Atlantic      21.188   79.125   80.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Hawaii           20.938   80.625   79.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Arizona          20.562   80.875   80.0     0     0    0    0
  83 MTSU             20.500   80.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  84 California       20.062   81.875   80.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Tulane           18.000   83.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Toledo           17.750   82.500   84.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Air Force        14.375   85.250   88.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Arkansas St      13.688   87.125   87.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Miami OH         12.000   89.000   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Nevada            8.250   92.000   93.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Ohio              8.000   93.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Akron             5.812   94.375   96.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Liberty           5.125   95.250   96.5     0     0    0    0
  94 New Mexico        3.750   97.500   97.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Coastal Car       3.312   97.375   98.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Louisville        2.812   97.375   99.0     0     0    0    0
  97 ULL               2.750   99.000   97.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Illinois          2.625   97.750   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 SMU               2.188   98.125   99.5     0     0    0    0
 100 Nebraska         -0.188  100.375  102.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Colorado St      -0.312  103.125   99.5     0     0    0    0
 102 Wyoming          -0.500  101.500  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 North Carolina   -0.875  100.750  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 ULM              -1.188  101.875  102.5     0     0    0    0
 105 Kansas           -1.375  100.750  104.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Tulsa            -2.250  103.000  103.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Arkansas         -3.438  103.375  105.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Navy             -5.000  104.000  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Ball St          -5.000  105.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Georgia St       -5.750  106.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Southern Miss    -5.750  106.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 112 East Carolina    -9.625  110.750  110.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Massachusetts   -10.812  111.625  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Charlotte       -11.562  112.125  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Oregon St       -13.375  113.750  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 C Michigan      -14.438  115.375  115.5     0     0    0    0
 117 UT San Antonio  -15.375  116.250  116.5     0     0    0    0
 118 UNLV            -15.625  117.250  116.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Connecticut     -16.938  116.875  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Old Dominion    -17.062  118.625  117.5     0     0    0    0
 121 South Alabama   -19.375  119.750  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 WKU             -19.750  119.500  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 New Mexico St   -21.188  121.875  122.5     0     0    0    0
 124 Bowling Green   -21.500  122.000  123.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Rutgers         -22.375  123.250  123.5     0     0    0    0
 126 San Jose St     -24.312  125.125  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Kent            -25.250  126.000  126.5     0     0    0    0
 128 Rice            -27.000  128.000  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Texas St        -27.312  127.625  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -28.812  129.625  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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