NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, December 2, 2017 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Clemson          99.667    1.667    1.0     9     9    9    5
   2 Georgia          99.000    2.000    2.0     9     9    9    2
   3 Oklahoma         96.778    4.444    4.0     9     9    7    0
   4 Ohio St          96.111    4.778    5.0     9     9    7    0
   5 Wisconsin        95.500    6.000    5.0     9     9    5    0
   6 Alabama          95.389    5.222    6.0     9     9    4    0
   7 Penn St          93.389    8.222    7.0     9     8    0    0
   8 Auburn           93.000    8.000    8.0     9     9    0    0
   9 UCF              92.778    8.444    8.0     9     6    4    2
  10 Notre Dame       90.778   10.444   10.0     9     7    0    0
  11 USC              89.500   11.000   12.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Washington       88.167   12.667   13.0     9     2    0    0
  13 Miami FL         87.944   13.111   13.0     9     0    0    0
  14 TCU              86.778   14.444   14.0     9     0    0    0
  15 Michigan St      84.611   17.778   15.0     8     0    0    0
  16 Stanford         84.500   17.000   16.0     9     1    0    0
  17 Virginia Tech    84.444   17.111   16.0     9     0    0    0
  18 Northwestern     82.278   19.444   18.0     8     0    0    0
  19 Oklahoma St      81.167   18.667   21.0     9     0    0    0
  20 Michigan         80.611   20.778   20.0     9     0    0    0
  21 LSU              79.500   21.000   22.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Memphis          79.333   23.333   20.0     7     0    0    0
  23 NC State         78.444   23.111   22.0     8     0    0    0
  24 Mississippi St   75.889   25.222   25.0     9     0    0    0
  25 Washington St    75.778   25.444   25.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Iowa             75.167   25.667   26.0     9     0    0    0
  27 Louisville       75.000   25.000   27.0     8     0    0    0
  28 Boston College   72.444   29.111   28.0     5     0    0    0
  29 Wake Forest      71.833   29.333   29.0     6     0    0    0
  30 Iowa St          69.056   32.889   31.0     4     0    0    0
  31 South Carolina   67.444   35.111   32.0     3     0    0    0
  32 Florida St       66.556   33.889   35.0     3     0    0    0
  33 South Florida    66.500   36.000   33.0     1     0    0    0
  34 Boise St         65.333   34.333   37.0     3     0    0    0
  35 San Diego St     64.278   38.444   35.0     3     0    0    0
  36 Toledo           64.222   35.556   38.0     2     0    0    0
  37 Oregon           62.500   39.000   38.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Arizona St       62.000   40.000   38.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Texas            59.944   40.111   42.0     2     0    0    0
  40 West Virginia    59.889   41.222   41.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Purdue           59.444   42.111   41.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Texas A&M        57.333   43.333   44.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Georgia Tech     56.889   43.222   45.0     1     0    0    0
  44 UCLA             56.278   45.444   44.0     0     0    0    0
  45 FL Atlantic      55.333   44.333   47.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Kansas St        54.222   44.556   49.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Utah             53.389   47.222   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Duke             51.944   48.111   50.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Missouri         51.556   47.889   51.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Arizona          51.444   50.111   49.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Houston          51.389   49.222   50.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Texas Tech       50.278   50.444   51.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Navy             49.444   52.111   51.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Fresno St        47.611   50.778   56.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Kentucky         44.000   56.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Virginia         43.167   57.667   58.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Indiana          42.278   57.444   60.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Pittsburgh       41.833   57.333   61.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Army             41.611   59.778   59.0     0     0    0    0
  60 SMU              41.500   59.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 California       41.000   61.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Mississippi      40.944   60.111   60.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Troy             40.222   57.556   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 N Illinois       37.722   61.556   65.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Maryland         35.778   66.444   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Syracuse         34.389   67.222   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Florida          34.000   68.000   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Minnesota        33.778   67.444   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Ohio             31.667   68.667   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 C Michigan       29.500   71.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Nebraska         28.444   74.111   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Temple           27.333   74.333   73.0     0     0    0    0
  73 North Texas      26.667   73.667   75.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Vanderbilt       26.556   74.889   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Colorado         25.889   75.222   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Tulane           24.111   78.778   75.0     0     0    0    0
  77 North Carolina   22.444   80.111   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Arkansas         22.000   79.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Marshall         20.500   80.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  80 W Michigan       20.167   81.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Colorado St      19.944   79.111   83.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Appalachian St   19.833   80.333   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Akron            18.611   82.778   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Florida Intl     18.167   82.667   83.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Wyoming          17.611   82.778   84.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Tennessee        16.611   84.778   84.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Rutgers          16.556   84.889   84.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Southern Miss    14.556   85.889   87.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Arkansas St      13.944   86.111   88.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Buffalo          13.722   87.556   87.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Utah St          13.278   86.444   89.0     0     0    0    0
  92 E Michigan       10.556   89.889   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Air Force         9.778   90.444   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Louisiana Tech    7.167   93.667   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 MTSU              6.944   94.111   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 UAB               4.944   95.111   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Miami OH          3.000   98.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Cincinnati        2.500   98.000   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 UT San Antonio    1.278   99.444  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 East Carolina     0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Tulsa            -2.667  104.333  103.0     0     0    0    0
 102 UNLV             -2.778  103.556  104.0     0     0    0    0
 103 WKU              -3.833  105.667  104.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Connecticut      -3.944  104.889  105.0     0     0    0    0
 105 New Mexico St    -4.000  105.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 BYU              -4.167  104.333  106.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Illinois         -5.611  106.222  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Old Dominion     -6.167  109.333  105.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Nevada           -6.278  106.556  108.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Massachusetts    -7.944  107.889  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Baylor           -9.000  107.000  113.0     0     0    0    0
 112 ULM             -11.389  111.778  113.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Georgia St      -11.722  111.444  114.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Bowling Green   -11.889  113.778  112.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Idaho           -13.000  114.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 New Mexico      -13.333  113.667  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Oregon St       -15.389  115.778  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 ULL             -16.389  116.778  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 South Alabama   -16.833  116.667  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Hawaii          -18.611  119.222  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kansas          -20.056  121.111  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Kent            -21.000  121.000  123.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Coastal Car     -21.056  122.111  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Ga Southern     -22.444  122.889  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Ball St         -24.278  124.556  126.0     0     0    0    0
 126 San Jose St     -24.389  125.778  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Charlotte       -25.833  126.667  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Rice            -26.056  127.111  127.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Texas St        -27.000  128.000  128.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -29.000  130.000  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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