NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 7, 2019 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Clemson         100.000    1.000    1.0     8     8    8    8
   2 Alabama          99.000    2.000    2.0     8     8    8    0
   3 Notre Dame       97.062    4.875    3.0     8     7    7    0
   4 Georgia          96.312    5.375    4.0     8     8    6    0
   5 Oklahoma         95.938    5.125    5.0     8     8    5    0
   6 Ohio St          95.938    5.125    5.0     8     8    5    0
   7 LSU              93.938    7.125    7.0     8     8    1    0
   8 Texas A&M        93.125    7.750    8.0     8     8    0    0
   9 Florida          91.000   10.000   10.0     8     5    0    0
  10 Michigan         89.125   12.250   11.5     8     4    0    0
  11 Kentucky         88.875   13.250   11.0     8     0    0    0
  12 Syracuse         88.688   13.125   11.5     8     4    0    0
  13 UCF              86.125   14.750   15.0     8     0    0    0
  14 Texas            84.875   16.750   15.5     8     0    0    0
  15 Washington       84.312   16.875   16.5     8     0    0    0
  16 Washington St    84.125   16.750   17.0     8     0    0    0
  17 Fresno St        82.938   18.125   18.0     8     0    0    0
  18 Auburn           82.875   18.250   18.0     8     1    0    0
  19 Penn St          82.500   19.000   18.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Mississippi St   82.000   18.500   19.5     7     2    0    0
  21 Iowa             79.312   20.875   22.5     8     1    0    0
  22 West Virginia    78.688   23.125   21.5     7     0    0    0
  23 Missouri         78.250   23.000   22.5     7     0    0    0
  24 Stanford         77.062   24.375   23.5     7     0    0    0
  25 Appalachian St   74.250   26.000   27.5     5     0    0    0
  26 Utah St          73.875   27.750   26.5     5     0    0    0
  27 Boise St         73.688   27.625   27.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Army             72.812   28.875   27.5     5     0    0    0
  29 Northwestern     72.562   28.375   28.5     4     0    0    0
  30 Cincinnati       70.062   31.875   30.0     5     0    0    0
  31 NC State         70.062   32.375   29.5     4     0    0    0
  32 Utah             69.812   30.875   31.5     4     0    0    0
  33 Iowa St          67.812   32.875   33.5     3     0    0    0
  34 Duke             66.688   34.625   34.0     1     0    0    0
  35 Oklahoma St      64.812   36.875   35.5     2     0    0    0
  36 South Carolina   64.812   36.875   35.5     3     0    0    0
  37 Oregon           64.438   36.625   36.5     1     0    0    0
  38 Pittsburgh       62.438   38.625   38.5     1     0    0    0
  39 Wisconsin        61.812   38.875   39.5     1     0    0    0
  40 Virginia         60.062   40.875   41.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Boston College   58.312   42.375   43.0     0     0    0    0
  42 TCU              56.625   44.750   44.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Michigan St      55.562   44.375   46.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Minnesota        54.500   46.000   47.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Wake Forest      54.125   47.250   46.5     0     0    0    0
  46 Miami FL         53.750   46.000   48.5     1     0    0    0
  47 UAB              52.375   47.750   49.5     1     0    0    0
  48 Purdue           52.062   49.375   48.5     0     0    0    0
  49 Baylor           51.688   51.125   47.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Vanderbilt       51.438   49.125   50.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Arizona St       49.500   51.000   52.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Troy             49.250   50.500   53.0     1     0    0    0
  53 Ohio             47.000   54.000   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Georgia Tech     46.812   52.875   55.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Ga Southern      45.688   55.125   55.5     0     0    0    0
  56 Tennessee        44.938   57.125   55.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Texas Tech       44.875   56.250   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 BYU              43.125   57.250   58.5     0     0    0    0
  59 Florida St       40.000   63.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  60 California       39.125   62.250   61.5     0     0    0    0
  61 Kansas St        39.125   62.750   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Maryland         37.562   64.875   62.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Temple           37.000   64.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 USC              36.938   64.625   63.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Mississippi      35.625   65.750   65.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Virginia Tech    35.375   64.750   66.5     0     0    0    0
  67 Indiana          34.625   66.250   66.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Buffalo          33.562   65.875   69.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Marshall         33.438   66.625   68.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Nebraska         33.000   68.500   67.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Memphis          31.062   68.875   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 MTSU             30.938   70.625   69.5     0     0    0    0
  73 N Illinois       27.438   74.125   73.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Nevada           27.375   73.750   73.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Tulane           26.938   74.125   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 North Texas      24.750   75.000   77.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Florida Intl     23.812   76.375   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Miami OH         21.750   79.500   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Houston          21.625   78.750   80.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Arkansas St      21.312   78.375   81.0     0     0    0    0
  81 UCLA             20.938   81.125   79.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Arizona          20.625   81.250   79.5     0     0    0    0
  83 Wyoming          19.375   80.750   82.5     0     0    0    0
  84 San Diego St     19.312   81.375   82.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Colorado         17.625   83.750   83.0     0     0    0    0
  86 E Michigan       16.312   83.875   85.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Louisiana Tech   16.062   82.375   87.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Toledo           15.000   85.000   87.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Louisiana        11.375   90.250   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Air Force        10.812   88.375   92.0     0     0    0    0
  91 South Florida     9.625   92.250   90.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Hawaii            9.125   92.250   91.5     0     0    0    0
  93 Southern Miss     8.875   90.750   93.5     0     0    0    0
  94 W Michigan        8.188   93.625   92.0     0     0    0    0
  95 FL Atlantic       7.750   92.500   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Kansas            6.312   92.875   96.5     0     0    0    0
  97 ULM               4.500   96.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 SMU               3.500   97.500   97.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Illinois          1.250   99.000  100.5     0     0    0    0
 100 North Carolina    1.062   98.875  101.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Coastal Car       0.062  102.375   99.5     0     0    0    0
 102 Charlotte        -0.875  102.250  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Liberty          -2.000  104.000  102.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Louisville       -2.250  103.500  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Navy             -2.500  103.500  103.5     0     0    0    0
 106 Arkansas         -4.562  105.125  106.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Massachusetts    -6.188  107.875  106.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Oregon St        -7.438  108.875  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Akron            -8.125  108.750  109.5     0     0    0    0
 110 UNLV             -8.500  109.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Ball St         -11.125  112.250  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Tulsa           -11.688  112.375  113.0     0     0    0    0
 113 New Mexico      -12.250  112.500  114.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Colorado St     -12.938  113.875  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 East Carolina   -13.688  114.375  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 WKU             -14.812  114.625  117.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Old Dominion    -15.000  115.500  116.5     0     0    0    0
 118 South Alabama   -15.812  116.125  117.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Rutgers         -15.875  115.750  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Georgia St      -18.000  119.000  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 San Jose St     -19.750  120.000  121.5     0     0    0    0
 122 Bowling Green   -20.250  121.500  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 UT San Antonio  -21.000  121.000  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Texas St        -23.000  124.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -23.125  124.250  124.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Kent            -23.250  123.500  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 C Michigan      -25.812  126.625  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Rice            -26.500  127.000  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Connecticut     -27.250  128.500  128.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -28.812  129.625  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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