NCAA Football Superlist

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Richard Billingsley's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Justin Moore and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, September 27, 2014 (6 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Florida St       99.417    1.667    1.5     6     6    6    3
   2 Oregon           97.917    3.167    3.0     6     6    5    1
   3 Texas A&M        96.667    4.667    4.0     6     6    5    0
   4 Alabama          96.417    4.167    5.0     6     6    3    2
   5 Auburn           96.333    4.833    4.5     6     6    3    0
   6 Oklahoma         95.750    5.500    5.0     6     6    4    0
   7 UCLA             92.667    8.667    8.0     6     5    2    0
   8 Baylor           89.417   11.667   11.5     6     2    1    0
   9 BYU              88.000   14.000   12.0     6     3    0    0
  10 LSU              86.833   14.833   13.5     6     2    0    0
  11 Michigan St      86.667   14.167   14.5     6     2    0    0
  12 Mississippi      86.667   14.167   14.5     6     1    0    0
  13 Notre Dame       86.250   15.000   14.5     6     2    0    0
  14 Oklahoma St      85.500   17.000   14.0     5     2    0    0
  15 Stanford         85.333   18.333   13.0     5     2    1    0
  16 Mississippi St   85.000   16.500   15.5     6     0    0    0
  17 Georgia          84.667   18.167   14.5     5     0    0    0
  18 Missouri         83.833   18.333   16.0     5     1    0    0
  19 Nebraska         83.250   17.500   18.0     6     1    0    0
  20 USC              80.250   23.500   18.0     5     0    0    0
  21 South Carolina   79.500   21.000   22.0     6     0    0    0
  22 Kansas St        77.583   23.333   23.5     6     0    0    0
  23 Arizona          76.667   23.167   25.5     6     1    0    0
  24 Wisconsin        76.417   26.167   23.0     5     0    0    0
  25 Ohio St          76.083   26.833   23.0     5     0    0    0
  26 Clemson          75.667   27.667   23.0     5     0    0    0
  27 Georgia Tech     72.333   29.833   27.5     4     0    0    0
  28 TCU              71.000   29.000   31.0     3     0    0    0
  29 Washington       69.750   32.000   30.5     3     0    0    0
  30 Arizona St       69.000   33.500   30.5     3     0    0    0
  31 Louisville       68.500   33.000   32.0     2     0    0    0
  32 Texas            67.833   32.833   33.5     2     0    0    0
  33 Arkansas         65.917   33.167   37.0     2     0    0    0
  34 East Carolina    65.000   36.000   36.0     2     0    0    0
  35 Florida          64.083   38.333   35.5     0     0    0    0
  36 Miami FL         62.417   39.167   38.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Virginia Tech    61.583   40.333   38.5     0     0    0    0
  38 Minnesota        61.333   38.833   40.5     1     0    0    0
  39 Penn St          60.833   39.833   40.5     1     0    0    0
  40 Tennessee        58.833   41.833   42.5     1     0    0    0
  41 Maryland         58.750   42.000   42.5     0     0    0    0
  42 Iowa             58.417   43.667   41.5     0     0    0    0
  43 Marshall         57.500   44.000   43.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Duke             56.667   44.667   44.0     1     0    0    0
  45 N Illinois       54.083   46.333   47.5     1     0    0    0
  46 UCF              54.083   47.333   46.5     0     0    0    0
  47 Utah             53.500   50.000   45.0     0     0    0    0
  48 West Virginia    53.000   46.000   50.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Oregon St        52.167   51.667   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Virginia         48.417   51.167   54.0     1     0    0    0
  51 Cincinnati       46.667   54.667   54.0     0     0    0    0
  52 North Carolina   46.083   56.333   53.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Rutgers          45.667   55.667   55.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Texas Tech       45.583   54.833   56.0     0     0    0    0
  55 NC State         43.500   58.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Boise St         42.250   57.000   60.5     0     0    0    0
  57 Indiana          41.667   60.667   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Boston College   41.333   60.833   58.5     0     0    0    0
  59 California       39.750   58.500   64.0     1     0    0    0
  60 Colorado St      39.333   61.333   62.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Syracuse         38.917   61.667   62.5     0     0    0    0
  62 Pittsburgh       38.583   63.333   61.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Nevada           37.667   61.667   65.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Northwestern     37.167   63.667   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Washington St    34.917   66.667   65.5     0     0    0    0
  66 Iowa St          34.583   69.833   63.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Kentucky         33.250   67.500   68.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Michigan         31.667   71.667   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Illinois         31.583   68.833   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 W Kentucky       30.250   71.500   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Toledo           29.667   71.167   71.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Houston          28.417   74.167   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Bowling Green    27.917   71.167   75.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Navy             27.167   72.167   75.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Utah St          26.417   74.667   74.5     0     0    0    0
  76 San Diego St     26.417   76.167   73.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Arkansas St      26.167   74.167   75.5     0     0    0    0
  78 UT San Antonio   25.583   74.333   76.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Memphis          24.583   73.833   79.0     1     0    0    0
  80 Fresno St        23.167   77.167   78.5     0     0    0    0
  81 MTSU             22.667   74.167   82.5     0     0    0    0
  82 FL Atlantic      22.500   77.000   80.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Temple           22.250   75.000   82.5     0     0    0    0
  84 Wyoming          21.417   73.667   85.5     1     0    0    0
  85 Air Force        17.500   78.000   89.0     1     0    0    0
  86 ULM              17.167   83.667   84.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Louisiana Tech   15.250   86.000   85.5     0     0    0    0
  88 North Texas      15.167   86.167   85.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Rice             14.417   85.667   87.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Akron            12.083   86.333   91.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Colorado         10.667   91.167   89.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Ga Southern      10.083   92.333   89.5     0     0    0    0
  93 San Jose St       8.500   90.500   94.5     0     0    0    0
  94 Kansas            7.833   93.333   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Old Dominion      7.750   93.500   93.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Vanderbilt        6.750   90.500   98.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Ball St           5.083   97.333   94.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Wake Forest       4.917   95.667   96.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Ohio              3.167   96.667   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 ULL               2.583   98.833   98.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Purdue            0.583  100.833  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Texas St         -0.250  101.000  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 South Florida    -1.250  101.500  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 South Alabama    -2.917  103.333  104.5     0     0    0    0
 105 UTEP             -3.417  102.333  106.5     0     0    0    0
 106 C Michigan       -3.417  103.333  105.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Tulsa            -4.333  105.667  105.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Buffalo          -4.417  104.333  106.5     0     0    0    0
 109 Tulane           -6.500  108.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 SMU              -8.000  108.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Hawaii           -9.750  109.000  112.5     0     0    0    0
 112 Connecticut     -11.333  111.667  113.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UAB             -11.333  112.167  112.5     0     0    0    0
 114 UNLV            -11.500  110.500  114.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Southern Miss   -12.750  114.500  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Army            -13.667  114.833  114.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Florida Intl    -15.083  117.167  115.0     0     0    0    0
 118 New Mexico      -15.250  115.500  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 W Michigan      -16.500  117.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Kent            -18.000  119.000  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 New Mexico St   -18.500  119.000  120.0     0     0    0    0
 122 E Michigan      -21.000  120.500  123.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Troy            -21.583  122.667  122.5     0     0    0    0
 124 Appalachian St  -21.917  122.333  123.5     0     0    0    0
 125 Georgia St      -23.750  124.500  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Massachusetts   -23.917  124.833  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Miami OH        -24.667  125.833  125.5     0     0    0    0
 128 Idaho           -25.833  126.667  127.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking Data missing
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

College Football Research Center Rankings
http://www.cfrc.com//

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Tempo-Free Gridiron Data missing
http://blog.tempo-free-gridiron.com/

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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