NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
 (6 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.417    2.167    1.0     6     6    5    4
   2 Ohio St          98.500    2.500    2.5     6     6    6    1
   3 Oregon           98.000    3.000    3.0     6     6    6    0
   4 Michigan St      95.917    4.667    5.5     6     6    3    0
   5 TCU              95.250    6.500    5.0     6     5    4    1
   6 Baylor           94.083    6.833    7.0     6     6    2    0
   7 Georgia          93.917    7.667    6.5     6     5    2    0
   8 Clemson          90.917   10.167   10.0     6     4    0    0
   9 Florida St       87.667   13.167   13.5     6     3    2    0
  10 Stanford         87.250   13.500   14.0     6     2    0    0
  11 Auburn           86.500   14.500   14.5     6     2    0    0
  12 UCLA             86.500   14.500   14.5     6     1    0    0
  13 USC              86.500   14.500   14.5     6     1    0    0
  14 Missouri         86.417   14.667   14.5     6     1    0    0
  15 Mississippi      86.417   15.667   13.5     6     0    0    0
  16 Georgia Tech     84.833   16.333   16.0     6     1    0    0
  17 LSU              84.667   17.167   15.5     5     1    0    0
  18 Wisconsin        83.750   16.500   18.0     6     1    0    0
  19 Mississippi St   83.333   20.333   15.0     5     1    0    0
  20 Arizona St       81.917   18.667   19.5     6     0    0    0
  21 Oklahoma         78.917   21.667   22.5     6     0    0    0
  22 Kansas St        78.333   23.333   22.0     5     0    0    0
  23 Arkansas         77.083   22.833   25.0     5     2    0    0
  24 Boise St         76.417   25.167   24.0     5     0    0    0
  25 Texas A&M        75.000   26.000   26.0     6     0    0    0
  26 Arizona          74.083   25.833   28.0     5     0    0    0
  27 Louisville       73.167   27.167   28.5     5     0    0    0
  28 Nebraska         72.833   28.333   28.0     4     0    0    0
  29 Utah             71.833   28.833   29.5     4     0    0    0
  30 Florida          71.750   29.000   29.5     4     0    0    0
  31 Notre Dame       69.333   30.333   33.0     2     0    0    0
  32 South Carolina   68.250   32.000   33.5     2     0    0    0
  33 Virginia Tech    65.417   37.167   34.0     1     0    0    0
  34 West Virginia    64.917   39.167   33.0     1     0    0    0
  35 Washington       64.667   36.667   36.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Oklahoma St      64.417   37.667   35.5     1     0    0    0
  37 Tennessee        63.250   37.500   38.0     2     0    0    0
  38 Marshall         63.000   39.500   36.5     1     0    0    0
  39 Texas            62.667   39.167   37.5     1     0    0    0
  40 Minnesota        60.167   41.167   40.5     1     0    0    0
  41 Miami FL         58.250   43.000   42.5     0     0    0    0
  42 Iowa             57.000   45.000   43.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Duke             56.917   43.667   44.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Penn St          54.500   45.500   47.5     0     0    0    0
  45 BYU              52.833   48.833   47.5     0     0    0    0
  46 Michigan         52.750   48.500   48.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Boston College   51.583   50.833   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Cincinnati       50.500   52.000   49.0     0     0    0    0
  49 NC State         49.083   51.833   52.0     0     0    0    0
  50 UCF              47.917   51.667   54.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Utah St          47.583   50.833   56.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Pittsburgh       47.500   54.500   52.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Memphis          46.250   55.500   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Rutgers          43.417   58.167   57.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Virginia         42.833   59.333   57.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Northwestern     42.417   59.167   58.0     0     0    0    0
  57 North Carolina   41.917   60.167   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 East Carolina    40.667   60.167   60.5     0     0    0    0
  59 California       40.083   63.333   58.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Louisiana Tech   40.083   58.833   63.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Maryland         39.250   59.000   64.5     0     0    0    0
  62 Colorado St      38.917   60.167   64.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Oregon St        38.833   65.333   59.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Texas Tech       38.417   64.667   60.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Washington St    37.000   65.500   62.5     0     0    0    0
  66 Kentucky         36.833   66.333   62.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Houston          36.000   65.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  68 N Illinois       35.667   62.667   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Navy             35.500   63.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Toledo           33.083   66.833   69.0     0     0    0    0
  71 W Kentucky       32.750   68.000   68.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Illinois         29.250   73.000   70.5     0     0    0    0
  73 San Diego St     28.417   73.667   71.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Air Force        27.833   71.333   75.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Rice             27.500   73.000   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 ULL              24.250   74.000   79.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Indiana          23.083   77.833   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Ga Southern      21.083   77.333   82.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Vanderbilt       20.917   82.667   77.5     0     0    0    0
  80 Colorado         20.000   82.500   79.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Temple           19.583   78.833   84.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Syracuse         19.500   81.000   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Bowling Green    18.917   83.167   81.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Nevada           17.917   82.667   83.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Iowa St          17.167   86.167   81.5     0     0    0    0
  86 Arkansas St      16.083   82.333   87.5     0     0    0    0
  87 W Michigan       15.667   85.167   85.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Purdue           15.083   89.333   82.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Fresno St        14.250   85.500   88.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Appalachian St   11.250   89.000   90.5     0     0    0    0
  91 MTSU             10.667   88.167   92.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Wake Forest      10.500   91.500   89.5     0     0    0    0
  93 C Michigan       10.250   91.500   90.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Ball St           8.500   92.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 UTEP              4.333   96.833   96.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Texas St          4.083   95.333   98.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Kansas            3.917   95.667   98.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Ohio              3.083   99.333   96.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Tulane            2.583   98.333   98.5     0     0    0    0
 100 Old Dominion      2.167   99.167   98.5     0     0    0    0
 101 South Alabama     0.333  101.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Hawaii            0.000  102.500   99.5     0     0    0    0
 103 UT San Antonio   -1.667  103.833  101.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Wyoming          -2.667  104.333  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 San Jose St      -3.167  102.833  105.5     0     0    0    0
 106 ULM              -4.167  106.333  104.0     0     0    0    0
 107 South Florida    -4.167  105.333  105.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Buffalo          -4.750  104.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 109 New Mexico       -4.833  105.667  106.0     0     0    0    0
 110 North Texas      -5.750  103.500  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Florida Intl     -6.750  108.500  107.0     0     0    0    0
 112 FL Atlantic      -6.833  108.167  107.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Akron            -7.250  106.000  110.5     0     0    0    0
 114 Army            -12.583  112.667  114.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Tulsa           -12.833  114.167  113.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Kent            -13.333  113.167  115.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Massachusetts   -13.333  112.667  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Troy            -14.667  115.833  115.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Southern Miss   -15.667  116.333  117.0     0     0    0    0
 120 UNLV            -17.583  118.667  118.5     0     0    0    0
 121 Connecticut     -17.667  118.333  119.0     0     0    0    0
 122 SMU             -19.167  118.833  121.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Miami OH        -20.667  121.333  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Charlotte       -23.000  123.500  124.5     0     0    0    0
 125 Idaho           -24.250  125.000  125.5     0     0    0    0
 126 New Mexico St   -24.333  125.167  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 E Michigan      -25.500  126.000  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -25.917  126.833  127.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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