NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, November 26, 2016 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.938    1.125    1.0     8     8    8    7
   2 Ohio St          99.062    1.875    2.0     8     8    8    1
   3 Michigan         97.250    4.000    3.5     8     8    7    0
   4 Washington       96.875    4.250    4.0     8     8    7    0
   5 Clemson          96.062    4.875    5.0     8     8    5    0
   6 Wisconsin        94.875    6.250    6.0     8     8    2    0
   7 Colorado         92.812    8.375    8.0     8     7    0    0
   8 USC              92.250    8.500    9.0     8     7    2    0
   9 Penn St          90.000   13.000    9.0     8     5    0    0
  10 Oklahoma         89.875   11.250   11.0     8     2    1    0
  11 W Michigan       89.312   13.375   10.0     7     5    0    0
  12 Florida St       88.625   12.750   12.0     8     1    0    0
  13 LSU              85.500   16.500   14.5     8     1    0    0
  14 Auburn           85.125   16.250   15.5     8     1    0    0
  15 Stanford         84.812   17.375   15.0     7     1    0    0
  16 Florida          81.875   19.250   19.0     8     0    0    0
  17 West Virginia    81.812   19.875   18.5     7     0    0    0
  18 Nebraska         80.375   21.250   20.0     6     0    0    0
  19 Washington St    79.438   22.125   21.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Louisville       79.125   22.750   21.0     7     1    0    0
  21 Texas A&M        77.688   23.125   23.5     7     0    0    0
  22 Virginia Tech    77.250   23.500   24.0     7     0    0    0
  23 South Florida    76.938   24.125   24.0     6     0    0    0
  24 Oklahoma St      76.312   24.375   25.0     6     1    0    0
  25 Iowa             75.750   24.500   26.0     6     0    0    0
  26 Tennessee        75.688   26.625   24.0     5     0    0    0
  27 Pittsburgh       73.812   27.875   26.5     5     0    0    0
  28 Boise St         73.812   25.375   29.0     7     0    0    0
  29 Miami FL         73.438   27.125   28.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Houston          72.625   29.250   27.5     5     0    0    0
  31 Navy             72.438   27.625   29.5     5     0    0    0
  32 North Carolina   68.812   30.875   33.5     3     0    0    0
  33 Utah             68.500   32.500   32.5     3     0    0    0
  34 Tulsa            65.500   35.500   35.5     1     0    0    0
  35 Minnesota        64.375   36.750   36.5     3     0    0    0
  36 Georgia Tech     64.250   37.000   36.5     1     0    0    0
  37 Temple           62.812   37.875   38.5     2     0    0    0
  38 Arkansas         60.250   42.500   39.0     0     0    0    0
  39 BYU              59.938   40.125   42.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Kansas St        59.312   41.375   42.0     2     0    0    0
  41 Memphis          59.188   41.625   42.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Appalachian St   57.812   43.375   43.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Georgia          57.375   42.250   45.0     1     0    0    0
  44 WKU              55.250   47.000   44.5     1     0    0    0
  45 Air Force        54.500   47.000   46.0     1     0    0    0
  46 Troy             54.250   47.000   46.5     1     0    0    0
  47 Northwestern     54.188   46.625   47.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Toledo           54.062   48.375   45.5     0     0    0    0
  49 Mississippi      52.500   51.000   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 TCU              52.500   49.500   47.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Kentucky         51.500   50.500   48.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Vanderbilt       49.688   51.625   51.0     0     0    0    0
  53 San Diego St     49.312   51.875   51.5     1     0    0    0
  54 NC State         47.438   54.125   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Wyoming          46.250   53.500   56.0     1     0    0    0
  56 Colorado St      43.438   57.625   57.5     0     0    0    0
  57 California       41.500   61.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Indiana          40.375   61.250   60.0     0     0    0    0
  59 UCLA             39.875   61.750   60.5     0     0    0    0
  60 South Carolina   37.375   62.250   65.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Oregon           37.188   66.125   61.5     0     0    0    0
  62 Mississippi St   36.688   65.125   63.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Louisiana Tech   36.188   64.625   65.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Maryland         35.250   67.500   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Baylor           35.250   63.500   68.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Arizona St       35.125   67.250   64.5     0     0    0    0
  67 New Mexico       33.750   68.000   66.5     0     0    0    0
  68 UCF              33.250   66.000   69.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Texas            32.562   68.375   68.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Texas Tech       30.250   72.000   69.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Boston College   30.250   72.000   69.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Wake Forest      29.750   71.500   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Notre Dame       29.625   71.250   71.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Old Dominion     28.438   71.125   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Ohio             28.375   73.750   71.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Missouri         26.875   72.250   76.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Oregon St        26.688   72.625   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 MTSU             25.188   76.125   75.5     0     0    0    0
  79 SMU              23.062   77.875   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Arkansas St      22.125   80.250   77.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Idaho            20.938   78.125   82.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Duke             20.188   80.625   81.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Michigan St      17.375   84.250   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 E Michigan       16.562   84.875   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Syracuse         14.250   87.500   86.0     0     0    0    0
  86 N Illinois       13.750   87.500   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 C Michigan       13.500   89.000   86.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Arizona          12.438   89.125   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Iowa St          11.062   89.875   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 UT San Antonio   10.062   90.375   91.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Southern Miss     9.188   91.125   92.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Cincinnati        9.062   91.375   92.5     0     0    0    0
  93 Illinois          8.812   93.375   91.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Miami OH          8.312   93.875   91.5     0     0    0    0
  95 Tulane            7.875   92.250   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Army              7.688   90.625   96.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Hawaii            7.625   94.250   92.5     0     0    0    0
  98 ULL               7.438   93.125   94.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Ga Southern       5.250   94.500   97.0     0     0    0    0
 100 South Alabama     3.250   97.000   98.5     0     0    0    0
 101 East Carolina     2.000   97.500  100.5     0     0    0    0
 102 Purdue            0.312   99.875  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Utah St          -0.688  101.875  101.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Virginia         -2.500  103.000  104.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Akron            -3.000  103.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Nevada           -4.625  103.750  107.5     0     0    0    0
 107 San Jose St      -6.062  105.625  108.5     0     0    0    0
 108 ULM              -7.562  107.625  109.5     0     0    0    0
 109 Connecticut      -7.875  107.250  110.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Bowling Green    -9.000  110.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 UNLV             -9.125  109.750  110.5     0     0    0    0
 112 North Texas      -9.125  108.750  111.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Rutgers          -9.625  109.750  111.5     0     0    0    0
 114 Ball St         -11.750  112.000  113.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Florida Intl    -12.500  113.500  113.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Georgia St      -13.625  112.750  116.5     0     0    0    0
 117 New Mexico St   -15.688  115.875  117.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Charlotte       -16.188  116.375  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Kent            -16.438  116.375  118.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Massachusetts   -17.375  117.750  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kansas          -18.438  118.875  120.0     0     0    0    0
 122 UTEP            -19.688  120.375  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Marshall        -20.562  120.125  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Rice            -22.250  122.500  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 FL Atlantic     -22.375  123.750  123.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Buffalo         -24.938  124.875  127.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Fresno St       -25.250  126.500  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Texas St        -26.062  126.125  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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