NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, September 15, 2018 (4 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     4     4    4    4
   2 Ohio St          98.750    2.500    2.0     4     4    4    0
   3 Oklahoma         97.500    3.500    3.5     4     4    4    0
   4 Georgia          96.875    4.250    4.0     4     4    3    0
   5 Clemson          95.250    6.500    5.0     4     3    3    0
   6 Penn St          95.125    5.750    6.0     4     4    1    0
   7 LSU              92.500    9.000    8.0     4     3    0    0
   8 Oklahoma St      92.500    8.000    9.0     4     4    1    0
   9 Auburn           92.375    8.750    8.5     4     3    0    0
  10 Mississippi St   90.750   10.500   10.0     4     2    0    0
  11 Washington       90.375   10.750   10.5     4     2    0    0
  12 Stanford         88.250   12.500   13.0     4     2    0    0
  13 Iowa             87.000   15.000   13.0     4     0    0    0
  14 Virginia Tech    86.625   14.250   14.5     4     0    0    0
  15 TCU              84.375   16.750   16.5     4     0    0    0
  16 Notre Dame       82.250   20.000   17.5     3     0    0    0
  17 Boise St         82.250   19.500   18.0     4     0    0    0
  18 Miami FL         82.125   18.750   19.0     4     0    0    0
  19 Michigan         82.125   18.250   19.5     4     0    0    0
  20 Wisconsin        82.000   19.500   18.5     3     1    0    0
  21 UCF              80.250   20.500   21.0     4     0    0    0
  22 Boston College   79.875   21.750   20.5     4     0    0    0
  23 Duke             79.125   22.750   21.0     3     0    0    0
  24 Texas A&M        77.375   24.250   23.0     3     0    0    0
  25 Washington St    73.000   27.500   28.5     3     0    0    0
  26 West Virginia    72.875   28.750   27.5     3     0    0    0
  27 Michigan St      72.250   28.500   29.0     2     0    0    0
  28 NC State         70.750   29.500   31.0     2     0    0    0
  29 Missouri         70.375   30.750   30.5     2     0    0    0
  30 Texas            68.250   34.000   31.5     2     0    0    0
  31 Memphis          65.500   37.000   34.0     1     0    0    0
  32 South Florida    65.000   36.000   36.0     1     0    0    0
  33 Utah             64.750   37.000   35.5     0     0    0    0
  34 Mississippi      64.625   36.250   36.5     2     0    0    0
  35 Minnesota        64.500   37.000   36.0     1     0    0    0
  36 South Carolina   61.375   40.250   39.0     1     0    0    0
  37 Iowa St          61.375   43.250   36.0     2     0    0    0
  38 Kentucky         61.375   39.750   39.5     0     0    0    0
  39 Syracuse         60.875   40.250   40.0     0     0    0    0
  40 USC              60.500   41.000   40.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Fresno St        59.875   42.750   39.5     1     0    0    0
  42 Wake Forest      58.500   44.000   41.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Louisville       57.375   42.750   44.5     1     0    0    0
  44 Oregon           57.375   43.750   43.5     1     0    0    0
  45 Arizona St       56.375   44.250   45.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Florida          55.875   43.250   47.0     1     0    0    0
  47 Vanderbilt       54.125   47.250   46.5     0     0    0    0
  48 Appalachian St   53.625   45.750   49.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Texas Tech       52.375   48.250   49.0     0     0    0    0
  50 California       51.375   50.750   48.5     0     0    0    0
  51 San Diego St     51.250   49.000   50.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Colorado         51.125   49.750   50.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Kansas St        50.625   49.750   51.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Georgia Tech     46.625   52.750   56.0     0     0    0    0
  55 BYU              45.750   55.500   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Indiana          44.500   56.500   56.5     0     0    0    0
  57 Utah St          42.875   58.250   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Northwestern     42.750   58.500   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Houston          42.375   58.750   58.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Pittsburgh       42.000   57.000   61.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Florida St       40.750   61.500   59.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Toledo           37.125   63.250   64.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Army             37.000   63.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Virginia         36.250   65.500   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Troy             35.625   63.750   67.0     0     0    0    0
  66 FL Atlantic      35.250   66.500   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 North Texas      34.750   66.000   66.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Baylor           33.250   68.500   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Navy             32.375   67.250   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Cincinnati       31.750   69.000   69.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Maryland         30.250   71.000   70.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Purdue           29.750   74.000   68.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Buffalo          29.625   72.750   70.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Arkansas St      28.625   73.750   71.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Temple           27.375   72.750   74.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Marshall         26.750   75.000   73.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Louisiana Tech   26.125   73.750   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Air Force        25.250   75.500   76.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Tennessee        24.375   77.750   75.5     0     0    0    0
  80 Arizona          21.000   79.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Nebraska         19.625   81.250   81.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Akron            18.250   84.000   81.5     0     0    0    0
  83 E Michigan       17.750   82.500   84.0     0     0    0    0
  84 N Illinois       16.000   85.000   85.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Hawaii           15.500   88.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Wyoming          14.875   85.750   86.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Kansas           13.375   89.750   85.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Ohio             12.125   88.250   89.5     0     0    0    0
  89 W Michigan       10.125   91.750   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 UCLA              9.750   91.000   91.5     0     0    0    0
  91 North Carolina    9.500   91.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Tulsa             9.250   92.500   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Tulane            8.500   93.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Arkansas          7.000   94.500   93.5     0     0    0    0
  95 Nevada            7.000   93.500   94.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Ga Southern       6.750   96.000   92.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Florida Intl      6.250   95.000   94.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Illinois          5.875   94.250   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 UNLV              5.375   95.250   96.0     0     0    0    0
 100 MTSU              3.000   98.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Southern Miss     1.500  100.500   98.5     0     0    0    0
 102 New Mexico        1.250   99.500  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Oregon St        -3.250  104.000  104.5     0     0    0    0
 104 WKU              -3.375  105.250  103.5     0     0    0    0
 105 UAB              -3.750  104.500  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 SMU              -3.875  105.250  104.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Liberty          -4.000   99.000  111.0     0     0    0    0
 108 East Carolina    -5.375  105.250  107.5     0     0    0    0
 109 Colorado St      -6.250  107.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 110 ULM              -6.750  108.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Rutgers          -8.875  109.750  110.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Coastal Car      -9.625  110.750  110.5     0     0    0    0
 113 South Alabama   -10.625  111.750  111.5     0     0    0    0
 114 ULL             -12.625  113.250  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 C Michigan      -13.250  114.500  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Miami OH        -13.375  114.250  114.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Ball St         -15.000  116.000  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Georgia St      -15.500  116.000  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Massachusetts   -17.625  118.250  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 UT San Antonio  -18.500  120.000  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Connecticut     -19.750  119.500  122.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Bowling Green   -20.125  120.750  121.5     0     0    0    0
 123 San Jose St     -20.750  121.500  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Kent            -21.500  122.500  122.5     0     0    0    0
 125 Charlotte       -21.625  122.750  122.5     0     0    0    0
 126 Rice            -24.625  125.750  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 New Mexico St   -24.750  125.500  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Old Dominion    -25.000  126.000  126.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Texas St        -27.875  128.750  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -29.000  130.000  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football Data missing
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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