NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, October 18, 2014 (7 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Mississippi      99.786    1.429    1.0     7     7    7    4
   2 Alabama          98.357    3.286    2.0     7     7    6    0
   3 Mississippi St   97.429    3.143    4.0     7     7    6    3
   4 Florida St       96.786    5.429    3.0     7     6    6    0
   5 Auburn           96.571    4.857    4.0     7     7    5    0
   6 Georgia          93.357    9.286    6.0     7     5    3    0
   7 Oregon           93.000    8.000    8.0     7     6    1    0
   8 TCU              92.286    9.429    8.0     7     6    0    0
   9 Michigan St      91.214   10.571    9.0     7     4    0    0
  10 Kansas St        88.643   13.714   11.0     7     3    0    0
  11 Baylor           87.786   13.429   13.0     7     2    0    0
  12 LSU              87.714   13.571   13.0     7     2    0    0
  13 Notre Dame       87.571   12.857   14.0     7     2    0    0
  14 Oklahoma         86.357   15.286   14.0     7     1    0    0
  15 Clemson          86.286   15.429   14.0     7     1    0    0
  16 Nebraska         86.214   16.571   13.0     7     0    0    0
  17 Arizona St       82.857   19.286   17.0     7     0    0    0
  18 Arizona          82.214   18.571   19.0     6     2    0    0
  19 UCLA             81.357   20.286   19.0     7     0    0    0
  20 Ohio St          80.643   22.714   18.0     5     1    1    0
  21 Texas A&M        79.429   21.143   22.0     7     1    0    0
  22 Marshall         78.643   22.714   22.0     6     0    0    0
  23 USC              78.357   23.286   22.0     6     0    0    0
  24 West Virginia    77.571   22.857   24.0     7     0    0    0
  25 Missouri         77.429   23.143   24.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Utah             73.143   30.714   25.0     5     0    0    0
  27 Louisville       72.357   28.286   29.0     4     0    0    0
  28 Oklahoma St      72.000   30.000   28.0     4     0    0    0
  29 Stanford         70.786   32.429   28.0     4     0    0    0
  30 East Carolina    70.000   31.000   31.0     1     0    0    0
  31 Minnesota        69.214   31.571   32.0     3     0    0    0
  32 Duke             68.143   32.714   33.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Arkansas         67.429   35.143   32.0     1     0    0    0
  34 Colorado St      66.714   32.571   36.0     2     0    0    0
  35 Boise St         65.429   38.143   33.0     3     0    0    0
  36 South Carolina   65.357   37.286   34.0     3     0    0    0
  37 Maryland         63.857   38.286   36.0     0     0    0    0
  38 Washington       62.786   37.429   39.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Georgia Tech     61.929   40.143   38.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Florida          60.857   39.286   41.0     2     0    0    0
  41 Kentucky         59.286   39.429   44.0     1     0    0    0
  42 Tennessee        58.500   44.000   41.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Miami FL         58.357   42.286   43.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Wisconsin        57.929   45.143   41.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Iowa             56.429   45.143   44.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Virginia Tech    55.500   44.000   47.0     1     0    0    0
  47 Boston College   54.643   46.714   46.0     0     0    0    0
  48 UCF              54.286   47.429   46.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Virginia         52.786   46.429   50.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Penn St          48.286   53.429   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 BYU              47.929   53.143   53.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Utah St          47.786   52.429   54.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Pittsburgh       47.571   52.857   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Oregon St        47.571   53.857   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Nevada           47.143   53.714   54.0     0     0    0    0
  56 California       46.929   53.143   55.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Arkansas St      44.071   56.857   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Rutgers          43.071   57.857   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Texas            42.071   57.857   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 North Carolina   42.071   58.857   59.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Memphis          40.714   58.571   62.0     1     0    0    0
  62 Northwestern     39.286   59.429   64.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Louisiana Tech   35.071   65.857   66.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Syracuse         34.786   66.429   66.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Houston          33.643   65.714   69.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Air Force        33.357   68.286   67.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Michigan         32.429   69.143   68.0     0     0    0    0
  68 N Illinois       32.143   68.714   69.0     0     0    0    0
  69 NC State         32.000   70.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Iowa St          31.000   72.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  71 MTSU             30.714   68.571   72.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Ga Southern      28.929   73.143   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Washington St    28.643   71.714   73.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Texas Tech       28.214   71.571   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Toledo           27.214   74.571   73.0     0     0    0    0
  76 San Diego St     25.000   77.000   75.0     0     0    0    0
  77 San Jose St      24.286   74.429   79.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Indiana          23.643   77.714   77.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Cincinnati       22.500   78.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Rice             20.714   81.571   79.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Purdue           17.857   81.286   85.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Temple           16.357   82.286   87.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Akron            14.786   86.429   86.0     0     0    0    0
  84 C Michigan       14.429   86.143   87.0     0     0    0    0
  85 W Michigan       14.286   84.429   89.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Bowling Green    14.214   86.571   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 UAB              13.857   86.286   88.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Fresno St        13.214   87.571   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Navy             11.357   89.286   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Illinois         10.286   91.429   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 ULL               8.357   92.286   93.0     0     0    0    0
  92 FL Atlantic       8.000   93.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 South Alabama     7.571   92.857   94.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Wyoming           7.429   92.143   95.0     0     0    0    0
  95 UT San Antonio    6.571   93.857   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Colorado          6.214   92.571   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Florida Intl      5.929   94.143   96.0     0     0    0    0
  98 W Kentucky        5.143   95.714   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 ULM               1.929   98.143  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 UTEP              1.714   94.571  104.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Old Dominion      0.857  102.286   98.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Kansas            0.357   98.286  103.0     0     0    0    0
 103 South Florida    -0.429  100.857  102.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Ohio             -1.071  102.143  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Hawaii           -4.000  105.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Southern Miss    -4.786  106.571  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Vanderbilt       -5.143  105.286  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Tulane           -5.500  106.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 109 New Mexico       -5.643  104.286  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Ball St          -6.429  107.857  107.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Wake Forest      -7.429  108.857  108.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Texas St         -8.786  108.571  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UNLV            -11.357  112.714  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Massachusetts   -11.429  111.857  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Buffalo         -12.857  112.714  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 North Texas     -13.357  112.714  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Tulsa           -15.643  116.286  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Army            -16.286  116.571  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Appalachian St  -17.500  116.000  121.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Connecticut     -18.786  119.571  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kent            -20.000  120.000  122.0     0     0    0    0
 122 E Michigan      -20.071  121.143  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Miami OH        -21.429  121.857  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Idaho           -22.786  123.571  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 SMU             -23.429  124.857  124.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Troy            -24.286  125.571  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 New Mexico St   -24.500  125.000  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -25.429  125.857  127.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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