NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

Go to the Blog

Sports Rating Pages 
  I sum it all up in a nutshell.  

Home ] [ Predictive NCAA Football Ratings ] [ Retrodictive NCAA Football Ratings ] [ Predictive NFL Ratings ] [ Retrodictive NFL Ratings ] [ Classic YourLinx NFL Ratings ] [ NBA Ratings ] [ NCAA Football Superlist ] [ NCAA Basketball Superlist ]

Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
 (4 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     4     4    4    4
   2 Clemson          97.750    3.500    3.0     4     4    4    0
   3 Ohio St          97.750    3.500    3.0     4     4    3    0
   4 Stanford         95.500    6.000    5.0     4     4    3    0
   5 Mississippi      95.375    5.750    5.5     4     4    2    0
   6 Oklahoma         95.125    5.750    6.0     4     4    2    0
   7 TCU              91.125    9.250   10.5     4     2    1    0
   8 Arkansas         90.375   13.250    8.0     3     3    0    0
   9 Michigan St      89.750   11.000   11.5     4     1    1    0
  10 LSU              89.125   12.250   11.5     4     2    0    0
  11 Mississippi St   88.875   12.250   12.0     4     2    0    0
  12 Tennessee        88.875   14.250   10.0     4     2    0    0
  13 Baylor           88.125   12.250   13.5     4     1    0    0
  14 Michigan         87.875   13.750   12.5     4     1    0    0
  15 Notre Dame       84.125   17.750   16.0     4     0    0    0
  16 Oregon           84.000   18.500   15.5     3     1    0    0
  17 Wisconsin        83.750   17.500   17.0     4     0    0    0
  18 Georgia          83.500   18.500   16.5     4     0    0    0
  19 Florida St       82.125   19.750   18.0     3     1    0    0
  20 USC              81.125   20.250   19.5     4     0    0    0
  21 Utah             79.000   22.000   22.0     4     0    0    0
  22 Iowa             76.375   24.750   24.5     4     0    0    0
  23 Houston          75.750   25.000   25.5     4     0    0    0
  24 Florida          74.250   27.500   26.0     3     0    0    0
  25 Auburn           73.875   29.750   24.5     3     0    0    0
  26 Boise St         73.500   30.000   25.0     3     0    0    0
  27 West Virginia    73.250   28.500   27.0     3     0    0    0
  28 North Carolina   73.125   27.750   28.0     2     0    0    0
  29 Texas A&M        72.500   30.500   26.5     2     0    0    0
  30 Washington       72.250   27.500   30.0     2     0    0    0
  31 UCLA             71.375   30.250   29.0     2     0    0    0
  32 California       68.750   34.500   30.0     2     0    0    0
  33 Oklahoma St      68.375   35.250   30.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Navy             68.125   33.250   32.5     1     0    0    0
  35 Louisville       66.125   34.750   35.0     1     0    0    0
  36 WKU              65.250   35.000   36.5     1     0    0    0
  37 Nebraska         64.375   37.250   36.0     0     0    0    0
  38 BYU              63.750   37.500   37.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Toledo           63.500   37.000   38.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Arizona St       62.250   41.500   36.0     0     0    0    0
  41 San Diego St     57.250   42.000   45.5     1     0    0    0
  42 Pittsburgh       56.250   44.500   45.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Memphis          56.125   41.750   48.0     1     0    0    0
  44 Virginia Tech    55.125   46.250   45.5     0     0    0    0
  45 Northwestern     55.000   47.500   44.5     0     0    0    0
  46 NC State         52.375   47.750   49.5     1     0    0    0
  47 Washington St    51.375   49.250   50.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Miami FL         50.000   52.000   50.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Kansas St        49.625   54.750   48.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Georgia Tech     49.375   52.250   51.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Bowling Green    49.125   52.250   51.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Penn St          46.000   55.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Arizona          45.125   55.250   56.5     0     0    0    0
  54 Temple           45.000   55.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Duke             44.750   57.000   55.5     0     0    0    0
  56 South Florida    44.250   58.000   55.5     0     0    0    0
  57 Texas            44.250   59.000   54.5     0     0    0    0
  58 W Michigan       42.750   56.000   60.5     0     0    0    0
  59 Texas Tech       41.875   60.750   57.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Missouri         41.875   61.250   57.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Ga Southern      40.750   60.500   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Marshall         40.375   58.750   62.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Minnesota        40.375   61.250   60.0     0     0    0    0
  64 South Carolina   37.000   70.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Louisiana Tech   35.625   62.750   68.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Air Force        35.375   61.750   69.5     0     0    0    0
  67 Appalachian St   34.875   62.250   70.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Cincinnati       32.625   67.250   69.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Boston College   31.875   67.750   70.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Southern Miss    31.375   70.250   69.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Indiana          30.750   70.500   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 East Carolina    30.375   72.250   69.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Virginia         28.125   73.750   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Illinois         27.250   74.000   73.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Arkansas St      26.875   74.250   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 N Illinois       26.625   72.250   76.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Utah St          25.375   74.250   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 C Michigan       24.000   74.000   80.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Kentucky         23.875   77.750   76.5     0     0    0    0
  80 MTSU             22.750   78.500   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Maryland         20.250   82.000   79.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Colorado St      19.875   80.250   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Syracuse         19.250   82.500   81.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Ohio             19.000   82.500   81.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Vanderbilt       18.250   83.000   82.5     0     0    0    0
  86 Nevada           17.625   83.250   83.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Rutgers          17.375   83.750   83.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Iowa St          16.875   84.750   83.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Colorado         14.125   86.750   87.0     0     0    0    0
  90 San Jose St      11.125   88.750   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Tulsa            10.875   90.250   90.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Akron            10.625   88.750   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Connecticut       9.500   92.500   90.5     0     0    0    0
  94 Purdue            7.875   93.250   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 New Mexico        7.625   92.750   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Wake Forest       6.125   95.250   94.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Oregon St         5.375   98.750   92.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Troy              2.375   99.250   98.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Georgia St        1.750  100.500   98.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Buffalo           0.000  100.500  101.5     0     0    0    0
 101 ULL              -1.125  101.750  102.5     0     0    0    0
 102 Ball St          -3.125  105.750  102.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Army             -3.625  106.750  102.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Fresno St        -4.500  106.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 105 South Alabama    -5.875  106.750  107.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Massachusetts    -6.125  108.750  105.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Rice             -6.750  106.500  109.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Florida Intl     -7.250  104.500  112.0     0     0    0    0
 109 FL Atlantic      -7.375  108.750  108.0     0     0    0    0
 110 UNLV             -8.500  108.500  110.5     0     0    0    0
 111 UT San Antonio   -9.500  110.500  110.5     0     0    0    0
 112 UTEP            -10.500  109.500  113.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Old Dominion    -11.250  113.000  111.5     0     0    0    0
 114 SMU             -11.500  113.500  111.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Miami OH        -13.250  114.000  114.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Idaho           -13.625  113.750  115.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Texas St        -13.625  114.750  114.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Wyoming         -14.500  114.500  116.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Kent            -14.875  115.750  116.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Tulane          -15.000  115.500  116.5     0     0    0    0
 121 Kansas          -16.000  116.000  118.0     0     0    0    0
 122 UCF             -16.375  115.750  119.0     0     0    0    0
 123 ULM             -19.375  120.250  120.5     0     0    0    0
 124 Hawaii          -20.000  121.000  121.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -22.500  122.500  124.5     0     0    0    0
 126 E Michigan      -23.625  124.750  124.5     0     0    0    0
 127 North Texas     -24.875  125.250  126.5     0     0    0    0
 128 Charlotte       -25.750  125.500  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

Copyright 1998-2012 Nutshellsports.com

Webmaster: ray@ebarrelracing.com