NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, December 1, 2018 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     9     9    9    9
   2 Clemson          98.944    2.111    2.0     9     9    9    0
   3 Georgia          97.778    3.444    3.0     9     9    9    0
   4 Notre Dame       96.667    4.667    4.0     9     8    7    0
   5 Ohio St          94.778    6.444    6.0     9     8    3    0
   6 Oklahoma         93.722    7.556    7.0     9     8    3    0
   7 Michigan         93.222    8.556    7.0     9     6    2    0
   8 LSU              93.056    7.889    8.0     9     8    1    0
   9 UCF              92.278    9.444    8.0     9     7    1    0
  10 Florida          89.333   12.333   11.0     9     4    0    0
  11 Missouri         89.056   11.889   12.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Kentucky         88.444   13.111   12.0     9     3    0    0
  13 Texas A&M        87.889   13.222   13.0     9     1    0    0
  14 Washington       87.167   13.667   14.0     9     2    0    0
  15 Mississippi St   86.333   14.333   15.0     9     2    1    0
  16 Penn St          85.333   15.333   16.0     9     1    0    0
  17 Washington St    83.611   17.778   17.0     9     0    0    0
  18 Syracuse         81.556   19.889   19.0     9     0    0    0
  19 Fresno St        81.111   19.778   20.0     9     1    0    0
  20 Auburn           79.667   22.667   20.0     8     0    0    0
  21 West Virginia    79.611   20.778   22.0     8     1    0    0
  22 Utah             78.389   22.222   23.0     9     0    0    0
  23 South Carolina   77.556   23.889   23.0     7     0    0    0
  24 Stanford         77.000   24.000   24.0     8     0    0    0
  25 NC State         74.833   26.333   26.0     8     0    0    0
  26 Texas            74.444   26.111   27.0     8     0    0    0
  27 Iowa             73.833   28.333   26.0     7     0    0    0
  28 Boise St         73.222   28.556   27.0     7     0    0    0
  29 Appalachian St   70.167   30.667   31.0     3     0    0    0
  30 Cincinnati       69.611   30.778   32.0     4     0    0    0
  31 Utah St          68.722   32.556   32.0     4     0    0    0
  32 Pittsburgh       68.333   34.333   31.0     4     0    0    0
  33 Army             68.222   33.556   32.0     3     0    0    0
  34 Northwestern     67.278   35.444   32.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Vanderbilt       66.722   34.556   34.0     3     0    0    0
  36 Iowa St          65.500   34.000   37.0     2     0    0    0
  37 Michigan St      65.167   37.667   34.0     0     0    0    0
  38 Oregon           62.278   38.444   39.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Miami FL         62.000   37.000   41.0     2     0    0    0
  40 Purdue           60.611   40.778   40.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Boston College   60.500   41.000   40.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Georgia Tech     57.556   42.889   44.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Duke             56.889   45.222   43.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Arizona St       55.111   45.778   46.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Temple           52.944   48.111   48.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Wisconsin        51.611   50.778   48.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Wake Forest      51.278   51.444   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Virginia         50.611   49.778   51.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Tennessee        49.667   51.667   51.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Oklahoma St      48.278   53.444   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 TCU              48.222   52.556   53.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Buffalo          47.444   54.111   53.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Ga Southern      46.444   56.111   53.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Minnesota        45.722   55.556   55.0     0     0    0    0
  55 California       45.389   56.222   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Troy             43.444   55.111   60.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Ohio             42.444   59.111   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Florida St       41.278   62.444   57.0     0     0    0    0
  59 UAB              40.778   57.444   63.0     0     0    0    0
  60 USC              40.667   61.667   59.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Mississippi      39.444   63.111   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 N Illinois       39.278   64.444   59.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Virginia Tech    38.111   62.778   63.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Maryland         37.222   65.556   62.0     0     0    0    0
  65 BYU              36.778   63.444   65.0     0     0    0    0
  66 MTSU             36.278   64.444   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Memphis          36.000   61.000   69.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Texas Tech       35.278   64.444   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Baylor           34.556   64.889   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Indiana          32.944   68.111   68.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Kansas St        32.556   69.889   67.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Arkansas St      30.889   69.222   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Houston          30.500   69.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 San Diego St     29.500   72.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Marshall         26.333   75.333   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Nebraska         25.833   73.333   77.0     0     0    0    0
  77 North Texas      24.611   74.778   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Toledo           22.611   76.778   80.0     0     0    0    0
  79 E Michigan       21.222   78.556   81.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Arizona          20.889   81.222   79.0     0     0    0    0
  81 UCLA             20.778   81.444   79.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Nevada           20.000   81.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Miami OH         19.944   81.111   81.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Wyoming          17.111   82.778   85.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Colorado         16.722   83.556   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 South Florida    16.611   83.778   85.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Louisiana        15.278   84.444   87.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Tulane           15.222   85.556   86.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Hawaii           13.444   86.111   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 W Michigan       13.111   86.778   89.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Florida Intl     12.722   86.556   90.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Air Force         9.333   90.333   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Louisiana Tech    7.556   93.889   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 FL Atlantic       6.167   93.667   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 SMU               5.667   95.667   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Southern Miss     4.833   95.333   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 ULM               4.667   96.667   96.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Kansas            2.833   97.333   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Illinois          1.889   99.222   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 North Carolina    0.944   99.111  101.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Coastal Car      -0.611  102.222  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Arkansas         -1.667  103.333  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Navy             -1.944  102.889  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Liberty          -2.056  104.111  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Charlotte        -2.333  103.667  103.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Louisville       -3.389  104.778  104.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Massachusetts    -7.167  108.333  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Oregon St        -7.389  108.778  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 UNLV             -7.611  108.222  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Akron            -7.722  108.444  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Tulsa            -9.944  110.889  111.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Ball St         -10.278  110.556  112.0     0     0    0    0
 113 East Carolina   -12.500  113.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Colorado St     -13.000  114.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 New Mexico      -13.056  113.111  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Old Dominion    -16.667  117.333  118.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Georgia St      -16.889  117.778  118.0     0     0    0    0
 118 South Alabama   -16.944  116.889  119.0     0     0    0    0
 119 WKU             -17.667  117.333  120.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Rutgers         -17.722  117.444  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Bowling Green   -18.167  119.333  119.0     0     0    0    0
 122 San Jose St     -19.333  119.667  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Kent            -21.889  122.778  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 UT San Antonio  -22.500  123.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Texas St        -23.667  124.333  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 New Mexico St   -23.833  124.667  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 C Michigan      -25.778  126.556  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Connecticut     -27.000  128.000  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Rice            -27.222  127.444  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -28.889  129.778  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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