NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 12, 2015 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Ohio St          99.875    1.250    1.0     8     8    8    7
   2 Oregon           98.625    2.750    2.0     8     8    7    0
   3 Alabama          97.438    3.625    3.5     8     8    7    0
   4 TCU              97.000    4.000    4.0     8     8    6    1
   5 Michigan St      96.125    4.750    5.0     8     8    7    0
   6 Florida St       93.375    8.250    7.0     8     7    3    0
   7 Baylor           92.875    8.250    8.0     8     6    1    0
   8 Georgia          92.500    8.000    9.0     8     8    1    0
   9 Mississippi      90.000   11.000   11.0     8     4    0    0
  10 Georgia Tech     89.625   11.750   11.0     8     4    0    0
  11 UCLA             89.125   12.750   11.0     8     3    0    0
  12 Mississippi St   88.750   13.000   11.5     8     4    0    0
  13 Clemson          87.875   13.750   12.5     8     2    0    0
  14 Missouri         87.625   13.750   13.0     8     0    0    0
  15 Wisconsin        86.438   14.125   15.0     8     1    0    0
  16 Arizona St       82.688   18.125   18.5     8     1    0    0
  17 Auburn           82.125   18.750   19.0     8     0    0    0
  18 Boise St         81.750   19.000   19.5     8     1    0    0
  19 USC              81.250   20.000   19.5     8     0    0    0
  20 Arkansas         80.438   20.625   20.5     8     0    0    0
  21 Arizona          80.312   21.875   19.5     7     0    0    0
  22 Kansas St        80.312   20.375   21.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Marshall         78.625   22.750   22.0     7     0    0    0
  24 Stanford         78.250   23.000   22.5     7     0    0    0
  25 Utah             77.312   23.875   23.5     6     0    0    0
  26 Texas A&M        76.250   26.000   23.5     6     0    0    0
  27 LSU              75.688   24.625   26.0     7     0    0    0
  28 Louisville       73.000   27.000   29.0     7     0    0    0
  29 Florida          70.938   30.125   30.0     4     0    0    0
  30 Nebraska         69.938   30.625   31.5     4     0    0    0
  31 Oklahoma         69.500   31.500   31.5     3     0    0    0
  32 Notre Dame       68.500   33.500   31.5     3     0    0    0
  33 Minnesota        66.125   34.750   35.0     1     0    0    0
  34 Tennessee        65.688   35.125   35.5     1     0    0    0
  35 Memphis          65.562   35.375   35.5     3     0    0    0
  36 West Virginia    63.438   38.625   36.5     0     0    0    0
  37 Colorado St      61.812   38.375   40.0     1     0    0    0
  38 South Carolina   59.688   42.125   40.5     0     0    0    0
  39 Washington       59.125   42.750   41.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Louisiana Tech   58.938   42.625   41.5     1     0    0    0
  41 NC State         56.438   44.625   44.5     0     0    0    0
  42 Duke             56.062   45.375   44.5     0     0    0    0
  43 Utah St          55.688   44.125   46.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Air Force        54.625   44.750   48.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Virginia Tech    53.438   47.125   48.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Miami FL         53.000   50.000   46.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Oklahoma St      53.000   49.500   46.5     0     0    0    0
  48 Boston College   52.750   47.500   49.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Rutgers          52.750   50.000   46.5     2     0    0    0
  50 Texas            52.000   49.500   48.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Maryland         48.750   53.000   51.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Penn St          47.938   54.625   51.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Cincinnati       47.062   52.375   55.5     0     0    0    0
  54 BYU              47.000   53.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  55 N Illinois       45.500   55.500   55.5     0     0    0    0
  56 Iowa             44.938   57.125   55.0     0     0    0    0
  57 UCF              44.500   56.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Virginia         41.375   60.250   59.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Navy             38.875   61.750   62.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Michigan         38.812   62.375   62.0     0     0    0    0
  61 California       38.562   61.375   63.5     0     0    0    0
  62 East Carolina    38.188   60.625   65.0     0     0    0    0
  63 North Carolina   38.000   64.500   61.5     0     0    0    0
  64 Kentucky         37.938   63.125   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 ULL              37.875   62.250   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Rice             37.688   62.625   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Toledo           35.750   66.500   64.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Ga Southern      34.062   66.375   67.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Northwestern     33.062   67.375   68.5     0     0    0    0
  70 W Kentucky       31.438   68.625   70.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Pittsburgh       31.000   71.500   68.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Nevada           30.062   69.375   72.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Oregon St        29.562   70.375   72.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Illinois         29.500   72.500   70.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Houston          28.438   71.125   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Washington St    23.312   77.875   77.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Texas Tech       22.750   80.000   76.5     0     0    0    0
  78 San Diego St     22.750   77.500   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 W Michigan       22.500   76.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  80 UTEP             21.375   79.750   79.5     0     0    0    0
  81 UAB              19.938   81.625   80.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Temple           19.875   80.250   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 MTSU             18.875   82.750   81.5     0     0    0    0
  84 Fresno St        17.125   82.250   85.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Indiana          16.000   84.500   85.5     0     0    0    0
  86 C Michigan       12.562   87.375   89.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Arkansas St      11.812   88.375   90.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Kansas           10.875   89.750   90.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Bowling Green    10.750   90.500   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Syracuse          9.875   90.750   91.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Appalachian St    9.250   90.000   93.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Purdue            8.688   92.625   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Iowa St           8.000   93.000   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Colorado          7.812   93.375   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Old Dominion      7.688   93.125   93.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Texas St          6.000   93.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 New Mexico        5.125   95.750   96.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Wyoming           3.812   98.875   95.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Ball St           1.938   99.125   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Ohio              1.812   99.375   99.0     0     0    0    0
 101 South Alabama     1.625   98.250  100.5     0     0    0    0
 102 UT San Antonio    0.188  100.625  101.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Hawaii           -0.375  101.250  101.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Vanderbilt       -0.438  101.875  101.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Wake Forest      -1.188  102.875  101.5     0     0    0    0
 106 Florida Intl     -4.125  104.250  106.0     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -6.062  106.625  107.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Tulane           -6.250  107.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 109 South Florida    -7.062  107.625  108.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Buffalo          -8.062  107.125  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Akron            -9.250  107.500  113.0     0     0    0    0
 112 San Jose St      -9.312  109.625  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 FL Atlantic      -9.375  110.750  110.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Army            -10.438  109.375  113.5     0     0    0    0
 115 North Texas     -10.688  110.375  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Southern Miss   -10.750  111.500  112.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Massachusetts   -16.250  116.500  118.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Tulsa           -16.500  117.500  117.5     0     0    0    0
 119 UNLV            -17.875  119.250  118.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Kent            -19.438  120.375  120.5     0     0    0    0
 121 Miami OH        -19.875  120.750  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Troy            -20.688  121.375  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Connecticut     -20.750  121.500  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 SMU             -23.000  124.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -24.125  124.750  125.5     0     0    0    0
 126 E Michigan      -25.000  125.500  126.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Idaho           -25.250  126.000  126.5     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -26.688  127.375  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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