NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, November 10, 2018 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     9     9    9    9
   2 Clemson          98.833    2.333    2.0     9     9    9    0
   3 Georgia          97.944    3.111    3.0     9     9    9    0
   4 Michigan         96.722    4.556    4.0     9     9    7    0
   5 Notre Dame       95.778    5.444    5.0     9     8    7    0
   6 LSU              94.667    6.667    6.0     9     8    2    0
   7 Oklahoma         93.444    8.111    7.0     9     7    2    0
   8 Ohio St          92.167    9.667    8.0     9     7    0    0
   9 West Virginia    91.389   10.222    9.0     9     6    0    0
  10 Washington St    88.500   14.000   11.0     9     3    0    0
  11 Florida          87.722   14.556   12.0     9     2    0    0
  12 UCF              87.333   15.333   12.0     8     3    0    0
  13 Penn St          86.556   14.889   14.0     9     1    0    0
  14 Texas A&M        85.667   15.667   15.0     9     1    0    0
  15 Kentucky         84.722   18.556   14.0     7     2    0    0
  16 Mississippi St   84.500   16.000   17.0     9     4    0    0
  17 Missouri         83.278   17.444   18.0     9     1    0    0
  18 Syracuse         80.667   20.667   20.0     8     0    0    0
  19 Auburn           79.556   23.889   19.0     7     0    0    0
  20 Utah             79.389   21.222   22.0     9     0    0    0
  21 Washington       78.278   22.444   23.0     8     0    0    0
  22 Texas            77.167   23.667   24.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Iowa St          76.611   25.778   23.0     7     0    0    0
  24 Utah St          76.000   24.000   26.0     7     1    0    0
  25 South Carolina   74.833   27.333   25.0     5     0    0    0
  26 Michigan St      73.944   28.111   26.0     6     0    0    0
  27 Fresno St        73.889   27.222   27.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Boise St         71.500   29.000   30.0     5     0    0    0
  29 Iowa             70.833   30.333   30.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Boston College   70.778   30.444   30.0     5     0    0    0
  31 Stanford         70.556   30.889   30.0     5     0    0    0
  32 Cincinnati       69.722   28.556   34.0     4     1    0    0
  33 Pittsburgh       67.944   33.111   33.0     3     0    0    0
  34 Army             67.556   32.889   34.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Duke             66.611   33.778   35.0     3     0    0    0
  36 Northwestern     66.222   34.556   35.0     2     0    0    0
  37 NC State         65.667   36.667   34.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Tennessee        63.667   37.667   37.0     2     0    0    0
  39 Buffalo          60.722   40.556   40.0     2     0    0    0
  40 Appalachian St   60.389   40.222   41.0     2     0    0    0
  41 Purdue           60.278   41.444   40.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Texas Tech       58.833   41.333   43.0     2     0    0    0
  43 Arizona St       57.167   43.667   44.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Virginia         57.111   43.778   44.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Georgia Tech     55.556   44.889   46.0     1     0    0    0
  46 Wisconsin        54.222   46.556   47.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Oregon           52.333   49.333   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 UAB              51.333   47.333   52.0     2     0    0    0
  49 Temple           51.167   50.667   49.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Mississippi      50.556   49.889   51.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Vanderbilt       50.000   50.000   52.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Troy             50.000   51.000   51.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Oklahoma St      49.500   53.000   50.0     1     0    0    0
  54 N Illinois       48.444   54.111   51.0     0     0    0    0
  55 USC              47.722   53.556   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Miami FL         47.500   52.000   55.0     1     0    0    0
  57 California       44.500   57.000   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Wake Forest      42.667   60.667   56.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Maryland         40.222   61.556   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 TCU              39.056   63.889   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Baylor           38.944   63.111   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Indiana          37.500   64.000   63.0     0     0    0    0
  63 BYU              37.111   63.778   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 San Diego St     36.500   64.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Houston          36.000   64.000   66.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Minnesota        32.833   68.333   68.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Arizona          31.944   71.111   67.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Florida St       31.333   71.333   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Nevada           30.667   70.667   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 MTSU             30.000   71.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Ga Southern      29.556   69.889   73.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Virginia Tech    28.667   72.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Colorado         28.056   73.889   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Kansas St        27.556   75.889   71.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Louisiana Tech   27.444   72.111   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 North Texas      27.278   73.444   74.0     0     0    0    0
  77 E Michigan       25.222   74.556   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 South Florida    25.000   75.000   77.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Ohio             23.444   76.111   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Tulane           22.944   78.111   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Memphis          20.944   77.111   83.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Marshall         20.056   79.889   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Arkansas St      18.889   82.222   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 SMU              18.833   82.333   82.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Nebraska         17.611   81.778   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Toledo           16.333   84.333   85.0     0     0    0    0
  87 FL Atlantic      15.833   85.333   85.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Air Force        14.778   83.444   89.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Florida Intl     13.500   87.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  90 UCLA             13.500   87.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  91 W Michigan       12.056   89.889   88.0     0     0    0    0
  92 ULM              10.500   90.000   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 ULL               9.056   91.889   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Miami OH          9.000   92.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Wyoming           5.611   95.778   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Coastal Car       5.167   96.667   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Hawaii            3.889   97.222   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Kansas            2.889   98.222   98.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Illinois          2.333   99.333   98.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Arkansas          1.611   98.778  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Akron             1.111   99.778  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 North Carolina    0.778   99.444  101.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Southern Miss     0.222   99.556  102.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Louisville       -2.278  104.556  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Liberty          -2.278  103.556  103.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Oregon St        -4.000  105.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Navy             -4.667  105.333  106.0     0     0    0    0
 108 New Mexico       -6.389  106.778  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Charlotte        -7.667  108.333  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Massachusetts    -8.556  110.111  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 East Carolina   -11.333  112.667  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Old Dominion    -11.500  112.000  113.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UNLV            -11.778  112.556  113.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Tulsa           -12.056  112.111  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Colorado St     -13.111  115.222  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Georgia St      -14.944  115.889  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Ball St         -15.111  115.222  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Rutgers         -15.556  117.111  116.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Kent            -19.389  120.778  120.0     0     0    0    0
 120 San Jose St     -19.833  120.667  121.0     0     0    0    0
 121 UT San Antonio  -20.056  121.111  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 South Alabama   -21.056  121.111  123.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Bowling Green   -22.167  123.333  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 New Mexico St   -22.667  123.333  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Texas St        -22.722  123.444  124.0     0     0    0    0
 126 C Michigan      -24.056  124.111  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Connecticut     -24.167  125.333  125.0     0     0    0    0
 128 WKU             -24.722  124.444  127.0     0     0    0    0
 129 UTEP            -27.778  128.556  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 Rice            -28.778  129.556  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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