NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Richard Billingsley's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Justin Moore and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
 (3 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Florida St       99.667    1.667    1.0     3     3    3    2
   2 Oregon           98.833    2.333    2.0     3     3    3    0
   3 Alabama          98.667    2.667    2.0     3     3    3    1
   4 Stanford         96.333    5.333    4.0     3     3    2    0
   5 Oklahoma         93.667    7.667    7.0     3     2    1    0
   6 Auburn           92.667   10.667    6.0     3     2    0    0
   7 South Carolina   92.167    8.667    9.0     3     2    1    0
   8 Ohio St          91.833   10.333    8.0     3     2    1    0
   9 Michigan St      91.500    9.000   10.0     3     3    0    0
  10 LSU              91.500    9.000   10.0     3     2    0    0
  11 UCLA             90.167   12.667    9.0     3     2    0    0
  12 Baylor           87.667   13.667   13.0     3     0    0    0
  13 Oklahoma St      87.333   18.333    9.0     2     2    0    0
  14 Clemson          87.167   13.667   14.0     3     0    0    0
  15 Georgia          86.500   16.000   13.0     3     0    0    0
  16 Missouri         85.000   18.000   14.0     2     1    1    0
  17 USC              84.500   17.000   16.0     3     0    0    0
  18 Texas A&M        83.333   18.333   17.0     3     0    0    0
  19 Notre Dame       83.333   18.333   17.0     3     0    0    0
  20 Wisconsin        83.000   18.000   18.0     3     0    0    0
  21 Arizona St       80.167   20.667   21.0     3     0    0    0
  22 Washington       79.500   22.000   21.0     3     0    0    0
  23 Kansas St        79.167   21.667   22.0     3     0    0    0
  24 Texas            75.333   24.333   27.0     3     0    0    0
  25 UCF              74.333   29.333   24.0     2     0    0    0
  26 Nebraska         74.167   27.667   26.0     2     0    0    0
  27 Mississippi      74.000   30.000   24.0     2     0    0    0
  28 Louisville       73.500   26.000   29.0     3     0    0    0
  29 Boise St         72.167   32.667   25.0     2     0    0    0
  30 BYU              71.500   30.000   29.0     2     0    0    0
  31 Arizona          68.500   33.000   32.0     1     0    0    0
  32 Florida          67.500   33.000   34.0     0     0    0    0
  33 Michigan         66.500   35.000   34.0     0     0    0    0
  34 N Illinois       65.333   40.333   31.0     1     0    0    0
  35 Virginia Tech    65.000   36.000   36.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Mississippi St   64.667   37.667   35.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Oregon St        63.833   37.333   37.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Texas Tech       63.167   36.667   39.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Iowa             63.167   38.667   37.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Miami FL         62.333   39.333   38.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Vanderbilt       58.667   44.667   40.0     1     0    0    0
  42 Duke             58.667   42.667   42.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Georgia Tech     57.667   43.667   43.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Utah St          56.833   43.333   45.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Penn St          56.500   45.000   44.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Cincinnati       55.667   48.667   42.0     0     0    0    0
  47 North Carolina   55.167   46.667   45.0     0     0    0    0
  48 TCU              53.667   46.667   48.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Fresno St        53.500   49.000   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Pittsburgh       51.333   50.333   49.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Utah             50.333   50.333   51.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Bowling Green    49.833   47.333   55.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Navy             48.667   53.667   51.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Houston          48.667   50.667   54.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Minnesota        46.000   57.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Tennessee        44.167   55.667   58.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Syracuse         42.000   58.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  58 East Carolina    42.000   58.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Northwestern     40.500   60.000   61.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Ball St          40.000   63.000   59.0     0     0    0    0
  61 ULL              39.833   65.333   57.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Marshall         39.833   58.333   64.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Washington St    37.833   59.333   67.0     0     0    0    0
  64 San Diego St     37.500   65.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Boston College   36.333   66.333   63.0     0     0    0    0
  66 West Virginia    33.500   69.000   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Rice             33.167   67.667   68.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Toledo           32.000   67.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Maryland         30.833   71.333   69.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Arkansas         30.667   70.667   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Arkansas St      30.000   71.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 North Texas      29.500   71.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 W Kentucky       27.500   74.000   73.0     0     0    0    0
  74 San Jose St      26.667   76.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Indiana          26.000   72.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Iowa St          24.500   73.000   80.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Colorado St      24.333   79.333   74.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Ohio             23.500   83.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Nevada           22.000   81.000   77.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Rutgers          21.833   77.333   81.0     0     0    0    0
  81 NC State         21.667   78.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Middle Tenn St   21.500   81.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  83 UT San Antonio   20.000   82.000   80.0     0     0    0    0
  84 SMU              19.167   84.667   79.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Colorado         17.833   84.333   82.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Wake Forest      16.333   81.333   88.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Tulsa            15.333   87.333   84.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Troy             15.000   88.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Illinois         13.167   85.667   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 ULM              11.167   90.667   89.0     0     0    0    0
  91 South Alabama     9.833   94.333   88.0     0     0    0    0
  92 California        9.000   92.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 UNLV              8.833   92.333   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Kentucky          8.167   89.667   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Buffalo           7.667   92.667   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Virginia          7.333   93.333   94.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Kansas            7.000   96.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  98 FL Atlantic       4.000   97.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Kent              2.667   96.667  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Connecticut       2.167   98.667   99.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Tulane            1.333   99.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Wyoming           0.167  101.667  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 South Florida    -0.500  100.000  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Purdue           -1.667  102.333  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Louisiana Tech   -3.667  103.333  106.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Temple           -3.833  104.667  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 C Michigan       -4.333  103.667  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Memphis          -5.667  105.333  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Air Force        -6.500  109.000  106.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Texas St         -6.833  106.667  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Akron            -6.833  107.667  108.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Old Dominion    -10.667  114.333  109.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Hawaii          -10.833  112.667  111.0     0     0    0    0
 114 New Mexico      -11.667  113.333  112.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Army            -14.000  115.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 UAB             -15.167  116.333  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Ga Southern     -15.833  116.667  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Southern Miss   -16.333  117.667  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 UTEP            -17.000  117.000  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Appalachian St  -17.833  119.667  118.0     0     0    0    0
 121 W Michigan      -18.500  119.000  120.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Florida Intl    -20.000  122.000  120.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Georgia St      -22.333  123.667  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Idaho           -22.500  123.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -23.167  123.333  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Miami OH        -24.333  125.667  125.0     0     0    0    0
 127 E Michigan      -24.500  125.000  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Massachusetts   -26.167  126.333  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking Data missing
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

College Football Research Center Rankings
http://www.cfrc.com//

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Tempo-Free Gridiron Data missing
http://blog.tempo-free-gridiron.com/

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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