NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Richard Billingsley's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Justin Moore and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, September 13, 2014 (4 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Florida St       98.375    2.750    2.5     4     4    4    2
   2 Oregon           96.875    4.250    4.0     4     4    2    1
   3 Alabama          96.750    4.500    4.0     4     4    2    1
   4 Oklahoma         96.750    4.500    4.0     4     4    3    0
   5 Texas A&M        95.625    5.250    5.5     4     4    2    0
   6 LSU              95.375    5.750    5.5     4     4    2    0
   7 Missouri         93.125    9.750    6.0     4     3    2    0
   8 Auburn           92.625    8.750    8.0     4     2    2    0
   9 South Carolina   90.375   10.250   11.0     4     2    0    0
  10 Notre Dame       90.375   11.250   10.0     4     2    0    0
  11 UCLA             89.625   10.750   12.0     4     2    1    0
  12 Baylor           89.500   12.000   11.0     4     1    0    0
  13 Mississippi      87.625   13.750   13.0     4     1    0    0
  14 Stanford         86.500   14.000   15.0     4     1    0    0
  15 BYU              85.375   16.250   15.0     4     1    0    0
  16 Georgia          85.250   16.000   15.5     4     0    0    0
  17 Michigan St      84.750   17.000   15.5     4     0    0    0
  18 Oklahoma St      81.875   20.750   17.5     3     1    0    0
  19 USC              81.250   20.000   19.5     4     0    0    0
  20 Ohio St          80.625   20.250   20.5     4     0    0    0
  21 Arizona St       79.750   22.000   20.5     3     0    0    0
  22 Clemson          79.500   22.000   21.0     4     0    0    0
  23 Nebraska         77.750   23.500   23.0     4     0    0    0
  24 Washington       77.250   24.000   23.5     4     0    0    0
  25 Kansas St        76.250   24.000   25.5     4     0    0    0
  26 Wisconsin        75.250   26.000   25.5     3     0    0    0
  27 Mississippi St   74.125   28.750   25.0     3     0    0    0
  28 Arizona          73.375   27.750   27.5     3     0    0    0
  29 Duke             70.500   29.500   31.5     1     0    0    0
  30 Penn St          70.000   32.000   30.0     2     0    0    0
  31 Virginia Tech    69.625   31.750   31.0     2     0    0    0
  32 Pittsburgh       69.125   31.750   32.0     1     0    0    0
  33 Texas            65.875   36.250   34.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Florida          63.750   39.000   35.5     0     0    0    0
  35 Georgia Tech     63.250   38.000   37.5     0     0    0    0
  36 East Carolina    63.000   38.000   38.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Louisville       62.000   40.000   38.0     0     0    0    0
  38 Miami FL         60.625   40.750   40.0     0     0    0    0
  39 N Illinois       60.125   40.750   41.0     2     0    0    0
  40 TCU              59.875   39.750   42.5     1     0    0    0
  41 North Carolina   59.625   41.250   41.5     0     0    0    0
  42 Boise St         59.375   42.250   41.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Oregon St        59.000   42.500   41.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Tennessee        58.250   42.500   43.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Boston College   58.000   42.500   43.5     1     0    0    0
  46 Utah             56.250   46.000   43.5     0     0    0    0
  47 UCF              55.500   45.000   46.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Syracuse         53.250   48.000   47.5     0     0    0    0
  49 Michigan         53.125   47.250   48.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Cincinnati       52.750   49.000   47.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Marshall         52.375   48.750   48.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Iowa             49.750   51.500   51.0     0     0    0    0
  53 West Virginia    48.875   53.250   51.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Arkansas         48.750   50.000   54.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Navy             48.750   53.000   51.5     0     0    0    0
  56 Texas Tech       44.875   55.250   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Minnesota        44.000   56.500   57.5     0     0    0    0
  58 Utah St          43.875   56.750   57.5     0     0    0    0
  59 NC State         39.750   61.500   61.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Virginia         38.625   61.750   63.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Bowling Green    38.375   62.250   63.0     0     0    0    0
  62 UT San Antonio   36.625   66.250   62.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Maryland         35.750   64.500   66.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Rice             34.750   67.500   65.0     0     0    0    0
  65 San Diego St     33.125   68.750   67.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Houston          33.000   68.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  67 MTSU             31.625   71.250   67.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Louisiana Tech   30.250   71.500   70.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Vanderbilt       30.125   70.250   71.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Rutgers          29.500   71.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Iowa St          29.500   71.500   71.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Fresno St        28.375   73.250   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Illinois         28.375   73.250   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Nevada           27.625   74.250   72.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Colorado St      27.250   74.000   73.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Kentucky         25.625   74.250   76.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Indiana          25.500   75.000   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Toledo           23.000   77.500   78.5     0     0    0    0
  79 California       23.000   78.500   77.5     0     0    0    0
  80 W Kentucky       22.875   78.250   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 North Texas      22.375   78.750   78.5     0     0    0    0
  82 San Jose St      21.125   80.750   79.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Washington St    20.500   79.500   81.5     0     0    0    0
  84 Arkansas St      18.500   81.500   83.5     0     0    0    0
  85 ULM              17.250   84.000   83.5     0     0    0    0
  86 FL Atlantic      17.000   85.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  87 ULL              16.000   86.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Northwestern     12.875   88.250   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Ball St          12.500   88.500   88.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Temple           10.750   89.500   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Colorado          9.500   93.500   89.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Wake Forest       8.750   91.500   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Tulsa             7.250   94.000   93.5     0     0    0    0
  94 South Alabama     5.625   95.750   95.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Kansas            5.500   93.500   97.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Wyoming           5.500   95.000   96.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Tulane            4.750   97.500   95.0     0     0    0    0
  98 UNLV              4.125   96.250   97.5     0     0    0    0
  99 SMU               3.125   97.750   98.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Ohio              1.875   98.750   99.5     0     0    0    0
 101 C Michigan        1.875   98.250  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 UAB               0.000  101.500  100.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Memphis          -0.750  101.000  102.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Connecticut      -2.000  103.500  102.5     0     0    0    0
 105 UTEP             -3.000  104.000  104.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Old Dominion     -3.875  105.750  104.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Buffalo          -4.250  105.000  105.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Army             -5.250  106.500  106.0     0     0    0    0
 109 South Florida    -7.875  108.750  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Purdue           -8.000  108.500  109.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Akron            -8.250  109.000  109.5     0     0    0    0
 112 Texas St         -8.500  110.000  109.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Hawaii           -8.750  108.500  111.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Air Force        -9.250  109.000  111.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Ga Southern     -13.125  113.750  114.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Southern Miss   -15.500  116.500  116.5     0     0    0    0
 117 New Mexico      -15.875  117.750  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Kent            -16.125  116.750  117.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Troy            -16.500  117.500  117.5     0     0    0    0
 120 New Mexico St   -16.625  117.750  117.5     0     0    0    0
 121 Appalachian St  -20.375  121.250  121.5     0     0    0    0
 122 W Michigan      -20.625  120.750  122.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Florida Intl    -21.250  123.000  121.5     0     0    0    0
 124 E Michigan      -22.500  124.000  123.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Idaho           -23.625  124.750  124.5     0     0    0    0
 126 Georgia St      -24.625  125.750  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Massachusetts   -25.000  126.000  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Miami OH        -26.125  127.250  127.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking Data missing
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

College Football Research Center Rankings
http://www.cfrc.com//

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Tempo-Free Gridiron Data missing
http://blog.tempo-free-gridiron.com/

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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