NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 11, 2016 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.938    1.125    1.0     8     8    8    7
   2 Clemson          98.875    2.250    2.0     8     8    8    0
   3 Ohio St          97.562    3.875    3.0     8     8    6    0
   4 Oklahoma         96.000    5.000    5.0     8     8    4    0
   5 Mississippi      95.188    5.625    6.0     8     8    4    1
   6 Michigan St      95.062    6.375    5.5     8     7    4    0
   7 Stanford         95.000    7.500    4.5     8     7    5    0
   8 TCU              91.875    9.250    9.0     8     6    0    0
   9 Michigan         90.688   10.125   10.5     8     4    1    0
  10 Houston          89.688   11.125   11.5     8     3    0    0
  11 LSU              89.312   11.375   12.0     8     4    0    0
  12 Baylor           87.625   13.750   13.0     8     4    0    0
  13 Tennessee        86.688   14.625   14.0     8     2    0    0
  14 Notre Dame       85.938   16.625   13.5     8     1    0    0
  15 Iowa             85.438   16.125   15.0     8     0    0    0
  16 Mississippi St   82.000   18.500   19.5     8     0    0    0
  17 Arkansas         81.938   19.125   19.0     8     0    0    0
  18 Wisconsin        80.438   20.625   20.5     8     0    0    0
  19 Utah             79.438   20.625   22.5     8     1    0    0
  20 Florida St       79.375   20.750   22.5     8     0    0    0
  21 Oklahoma St      78.938   21.125   23.0     8     1    0    0
  22 Navy             78.062   23.875   22.0     7     0    0    0
  23 Florida          77.688   25.625   21.0     6     0    0    0
  24 Georgia          77.062   23.375   24.5     8     0    0    0
  25 Oregon           76.312   25.875   23.5     7     0    0    0
  26 Northwestern     75.688   28.125   22.5     6     0    0    0
  27 North Carolina   75.625   26.250   24.5     5     0    0    0
  28 WKU              73.375   27.250   28.0     5     0    0    0
  29 Toledo           72.062   27.875   30.0     5     0    0    0
  30 West Virginia    69.250   31.500   32.0     3     0    0    0
  31 USC              69.000   32.000   32.0     2     0    0    0
  32 Auburn           68.438   35.125   30.0     4     0    0    0
  33 Texas A&M        67.750   34.000   32.5     4     0    0    0
  34 California       67.312   33.875   33.5     0     0    0    0
  35 Washington St    63.438   37.625   37.5     1     0    0    0
  36 San Diego St     63.125   37.750   38.0     2     0    0    0
  37 Memphis          62.562   38.875   38.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Washington       62.438   38.625   38.5     2     0    0    0
  39 Louisville       62.438   38.625   38.5     0     0    0    0
  40 Temple           60.875   40.750   39.5     0     0    0    0
  41 UCLA             59.688   41.625   41.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Texas Tech       58.188   43.125   42.5     2     0    0    0
  43 BYU              57.125   43.250   44.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Pittsburgh       56.625   46.750   42.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Bowling Green    56.438   44.125   45.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Penn St          53.188   49.125   46.5     0     0    0    0
  47 Appalachian St   51.875   46.750   51.5     0     0    0    0
  48 Miami FL         51.438   52.125   47.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Nebraska         49.625   52.750   50.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Arizona St       49.250   51.500   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Ga Southern      49.062   52.375   51.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Boise St         48.875   50.250   54.0     2     0    0    0
  53 South Florida    48.500   52.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  54 W Michigan       48.062   52.875   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Texas            45.438   56.125   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Virginia Tech    43.375   59.250   56.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Minnesota        42.250   60.000   57.5     0     0    0    0
  58 Louisiana Tech   41.500   60.500   58.5     0     0    0    0
  59 Kansas St        41.188   60.125   59.5     0     0    0    0
  60 NC State         40.000   61.500   60.5     0     0    0    0
  61 Arizona          39.562   61.875   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Duke             39.250   62.500   61.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Marshall         38.625   62.750   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Indiana          36.562   62.875   66.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Missouri         36.250   66.000   63.5     0     0    0    0
  66 Arkansas St      36.000   66.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Illinois         34.312   67.375   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Southern Miss    34.000   65.500   68.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Air Force        33.250   66.500   69.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Cincinnati       32.062   68.375   69.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Vanderbilt       31.000   70.000   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Kentucky         27.125   72.750   75.0     0     0    0    0
  73 C Michigan       27.000   74.000   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Iowa St          26.938   74.125   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Ohio             26.500   74.000   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 MTSU             24.188   76.625   77.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Virginia         23.688   77.625   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 N Illinois       22.812   78.375   78.0     0     0    0    0
  79 South Carolina   22.750   77.500   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Akron            22.250   79.500   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Maryland         21.812   81.375   77.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Georgia Tech     21.750   78.500   80.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Utah St          21.375   77.250   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 East Carolina    21.250   79.500   80.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Connecticut      19.625   81.750   81.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Nevada           17.312   83.375   84.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Syracuse         16.312   85.375   84.0     0     0    0    0
  88 San Jose St      15.750   83.000   87.5     0     0    0    0
  89 Tulsa            12.562   88.375   88.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Colorado         11.812   87.375   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Rutgers          11.562   89.375   89.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Boston College   11.062   89.375   90.5     0     0    0    0
  93 Colorado St      10.875   87.750   92.5     0     0    0    0
  94 New Mexico       10.500   88.500   92.5     0     0    0    0
  95 Georgia St        7.688   90.625   96.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Purdue            6.812   93.875   94.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Wake Forest       5.625   95.250   95.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Oregon St         3.812   96.875   97.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Buffalo           2.375   98.250   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Troy              2.375   98.250   99.0     0     0    0    0
 101 South Alabama     0.812  100.375  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Florida Intl     -3.000  105.000  103.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Idaho            -3.250  104.500  104.0     0     0    0    0
 104 FL Atlantic      -5.625  105.750  107.5     0     0    0    0
 105 Old Dominion     -6.250  108.500  106.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Rice             -6.438  108.875  106.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Kent             -7.000  108.500  107.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Ball St          -7.000  108.000  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 UTEP             -7.125  109.250  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Massachusetts    -8.125  109.250  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 SMU              -9.438  110.875  110.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Fresno St        -9.938  110.875  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UNLV            -10.312  110.125  112.5     0     0    0    0
 114 ULL             -10.812  111.125  112.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Miami OH        -11.500  112.500  112.5     0     0    0    0
 116 UT San Antonio  -13.062  113.625  114.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Tulane          -14.625  115.750  115.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Army            -15.562  115.125  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 New Mexico St   -16.375  117.250  117.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Wyoming         -19.250  119.500  121.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Texas St        -19.375  119.750  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Kansas          -19.625  119.750  121.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Hawaii          -21.000  122.000  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 ULM             -22.750  124.000  123.5     0     0    0    0
 125 E Michigan      -23.750  124.500  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 North Texas     -23.750  125.000  124.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Charlotte       -24.562  125.125  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 UCF             -26.500  127.000  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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