NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
 (3 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     3     3    3    3
   2 Ohio St          98.333    3.333    2.0     3     3    2    0
   3 Clemson          97.667    3.667    3.0     3     3    3    0
   4 Mississippi      95.667    5.667    5.0     3     3    2    0
   5 Stanford         95.333    6.333    5.0     3     3    2    0
   6 Oklahoma         93.500    7.000    8.0     3     3    1    0
   7 Michigan St      91.000    9.000   11.0     3     1    1    0
   8 Mississippi St   90.167   11.667   10.0     3     2    0    0
   9 Arkansas         90.167   14.667    7.0     2     2    0    0
  10 LSU              90.000   12.000   10.0     3     2    0    0
  11 TCU              89.667    9.667   13.0     3     1    1    0
  12 Tennessee        88.833   15.333    9.0     3     2    0    0
  13 Wisconsin        86.667   15.667   13.0     3     0    0    0
  14 Baylor           86.500   14.000   15.0     3     0    0    0
  15 Michigan         86.500   15.000   14.0     3     0    0    0
  16 Georgia          86.000   15.000   15.0     3     0    0    0
  17 Notre Dame       85.167   17.667   14.0     3     0    0    0
  18 Oregon           83.167   19.667   16.0     2     1    0    0
  19 USC              81.333   20.333   19.0     3     0    0    0
  20 Florida St       80.500   21.000   20.0     2     1    0    0
  21 Utah             79.000   22.000   22.0     3     0    0    0
  22 Iowa             78.000   23.000   23.0     3     0    0    0
  23 Florida          76.333   24.333   25.0     3     0    0    0
  24 Texas A&M        74.833   30.333   22.0     2     0    0    0
  25 Houston          73.500   27.000   28.0     3     0    0    0
  26 Boise St         73.333   31.333   24.0     2     0    0    0
  27 Auburn           72.667   31.667   25.0     2     0    0    0
  28 West Virginia    71.667   29.667   29.0     2     0    0    0
  29 North Carolina   70.000   30.000   32.0     1     0    0    0
  30 UCLA             69.833   31.333   31.0     1     0    0    0
  31 Navy             69.333   31.333   32.0     1     0    0    0
  32 California       69.333   35.333   28.0     2     0    0    0
  33 Washington       67.667   32.667   34.0     1     0    0    0
  34 BYU              66.333   36.333   33.0     0     0    0    0
  35 Louisville       66.167   34.667   35.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Oklahoma St      66.167   37.667   32.0     1     0    0    0
  37 Toledo           65.000   35.000   37.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Nebraska         64.167   37.667   36.0     0     0    0    0
  39 WKU              63.167   35.667   40.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Arizona St       60.500   44.000   37.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Northwestern     59.333   42.333   41.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Memphis          57.833   39.333   47.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Pittsburgh       55.667   44.667   46.0     0     0    0    0
  44 San Diego St     55.500   42.000   49.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Miami FL         52.333   51.333   46.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Virginia Tech    52.000   49.000   49.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Penn St          50.667   52.667   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Bowling Green    50.000   52.000   50.0     0     0    0    0
  49 NC State         49.667   48.667   54.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Georgia Tech     48.500   53.000   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Kansas St        47.167   57.667   50.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Arizona          46.333   54.333   55.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Duke             44.833   57.333   55.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Washington St    44.833   52.333   60.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Marshall         44.667   55.667   57.0     0     0    0    0
  56 W Michigan       43.167   54.667   61.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Minnesota        42.833   60.333   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Temple           42.000   56.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Ga Southern      41.333   60.333   59.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Missouri         41.167   62.667   57.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Louisiana Tech   39.833   59.333   63.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Texas            39.167   62.667   61.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Air Force        38.333   58.333   67.0     0     0    0    0
  64 South Florida    38.167   61.667   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Cincinnati       37.000   64.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Texas Tech       37.000   64.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Appalachian St   36.167   59.667   70.0     0     0    0    0
  68 South Carolina   34.500   75.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Arkansas St      32.833   71.333   65.0     0     0    0    0
  70 N Illinois       31.000   68.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  71 East Carolina    29.833   73.333   69.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Illinois         28.833   73.333   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Boston College   28.667   68.667   76.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Indiana          28.667   71.667   73.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Colorado St      26.833   76.333   72.0     0     0    0    0
  76 C Michigan       25.667   70.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Kentucky         25.333   77.333   74.0     0     0    0    0
  78 MTSU             24.667   77.667   75.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Southern Miss    24.500   74.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Virginia         23.833   76.333   78.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Utah St          23.833   74.333   80.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Ohio             23.500   79.000   76.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Rutgers          23.000   80.000   76.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Nevada           21.333   81.333   78.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Maryland         20.167   82.667   79.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Vanderbilt       17.833   83.333   83.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Syracuse         16.500   85.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  88 San Jose St      13.000   87.000   89.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Akron            12.833   86.333   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Colorado         10.167   89.667   92.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Tulsa             9.333   91.333   92.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Iowa St           8.333   89.333   96.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Connecticut       8.000   94.000   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Oregon St         7.333   99.333   88.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Purdue            5.833   94.333   96.0     0     0    0    0
  96 New Mexico        5.833   93.333   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Troy              2.833   99.333   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 ULL               2.667   99.667   97.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Wake Forest       1.833   98.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Buffalo           1.500   99.000  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Georgia St        1.333  101.333   98.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Rice             -2.500  103.000  104.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Ball St          -2.667  106.333  101.0     0     0    0    0
 104 South Alabama    -3.833  105.667  104.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Florida Intl     -5.333  101.667  111.0     0     0    0    0
 106 UTEP             -5.500  106.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Massachusetts    -5.667  109.333  104.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Army             -6.000  109.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Fresno St        -6.667  107.333  108.0     0     0    0    0
 110 FL Atlantic      -8.333  109.667  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 UT San Antonio   -9.167  110.333  110.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Old Dominion     -9.167  112.333  108.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UNLV            -10.500  111.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Texas St        -10.667  112.333  111.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Miami OH        -10.833  112.667  111.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Idaho           -13.000  113.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Kent            -13.500  114.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 118 SMU             -13.500  115.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 119 UCF             -15.833  114.667  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Tulane          -15.833  116.667  117.0     0     0    0    0
 121 ULM             -16.333  118.667  116.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Wyoming         -18.167  118.333  120.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Kansas          -18.333  116.667  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Hawaii          -19.000  120.000  120.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -21.000  121.000  123.0     0     0    0    0
 126 E Michigan      -24.667  125.333  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 North Texas     -25.000  125.000  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Charlotte       -25.333  124.667  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking Data missing
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T. Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football Data missing
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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