NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 8, 2018 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama         100.000    1.000    1.0     8     8    8    8
   2 Georgia          98.438    2.625    2.5     8     8    8    0
   3 Ohio St          97.438    3.625    3.5     8     8    8    0
   4 Wisconsin        96.250    5.000    4.5     8     8    6    0
   5 Clemson          95.062    5.875    6.0     8     8    2    0
   6 Penn St          94.875    6.250    6.0     8     8    3    0
   7 Oklahoma         94.875    6.250    6.0     8     8    2    0
   8 UCF              93.625    7.750    7.0     8     6    3    0
   9 Auburn           91.625    9.250    9.5     8     6    0    0
  10 Notre Dame       91.125   10.250    9.5     8     7    0    0
  11 TCU              89.000   12.000   12.0     8     0    0    0
  12 Michigan St      88.625   13.250   11.5     8     2    0    0
  13 Oklahoma St      86.562   13.875   15.0     8     1    0    0
  14 USC              85.625   15.750   15.0     8     0    0    0
  15 Miami FL         85.000   16.000   16.0     8     0    0    0
  16 Northwestern     84.812   17.875   14.5     7     0    0    0
  17 Washington       83.500   17.000   18.0     8     2    0    0
  18 Mississippi St   83.312   17.875   17.5     8     0    0    0
  19 Iowa             83.188   18.625   17.0     8     0    0    0
  20 NC State         81.250   20.000   19.5     8     0    0    0
  21 LSU              79.812   20.875   21.5     8     0    0    0
  22 Michigan         78.750   23.000   21.5     8     0    0    0
  23 Virginia Tech    77.438   23.625   23.5     7     0    0    0
  24 Stanford         77.438   24.125   23.0     6     0    0    0
  25 Iowa St          74.438   26.625   26.5     8     0    0    0
  26 Wake Forest      73.438   27.125   28.0     8     0    0    0
  27 South Carolina   72.875   29.250   27.0     5     0    0    0
  28 Memphis          72.312   29.375   28.0     5     0    0    0
  29 Louisville       71.562   29.375   29.5     5     0    0    0
  30 South Florida    69.688   31.125   31.5     3     0    0    0
  31 Boise St         69.438   30.625   32.5     3     0    0    0
  32 Texas            68.938   31.625   32.5     3     0    0    0
  33 Florida St       67.500   33.000   34.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Washington St    67.062   35.375   32.5     2     0    0    0
  35 Kansas St        65.875   35.750   34.5     1     0    0    0
  36 Boston College   65.500   35.000   36.0     1     0    0    0
  37 Purdue           63.312   38.375   37.0     0     0    0    0
  38 FL Atlantic      63.125   37.250   38.5     2     0    0    0
  39 Duke             60.062   40.375   41.5     1     0    0    0
  40 Army             58.625   43.250   41.5     1     0    0    0
  41 Georgia Tech     58.438   44.125   41.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Texas A&M        57.625   43.250   43.5     0     0    0    0
  43 Fresno St        56.938   43.125   45.0     1     0    0    0
  44 Utah             55.938   44.125   46.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Navy             55.188   46.125   45.5     0     0    0    0
  46 West Virginia    53.188   47.125   48.5     0     0    0    0
  47 San Diego St     53.125   47.750   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Oregon           52.438   48.125   49.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Arizona St       51.188   50.125   49.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Texas Tech       50.562   50.375   50.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Troy             49.750   49.000   53.5     1     0    0    0
  52 Missouri         48.125   52.250   53.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Kentucky         47.812   52.875   53.5     0     0    0    0
  54 Indiana          47.250   54.000   53.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Toledo           46.312   53.875   55.5     0     0    0    0
  56 Mississippi      44.062   56.375   57.5     0     0    0    0
  57 Houston          43.938   57.125   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Pittsburgh       43.562   57.375   57.5     0     0    0    0
  59 UCLA             42.750   59.000   57.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Appalachian St   42.500   60.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Maryland         42.188   60.125   57.5     0     0    0    0
  62 Arizona          40.250   60.500   61.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Minnesota        36.750   64.500   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Florida          36.625   66.250   62.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Ohio             35.875   65.250   65.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Temple           35.750   64.500   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 California       34.875   66.250   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Syracuse         34.250   68.000   65.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Virginia         33.812   67.875   66.5     0     0    0    0
  70 N Illinois       29.562   71.375   71.5     0     0    0    0
  71 SMU              29.000   73.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Nebraska         28.750   73.000   71.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Vanderbilt       27.750   74.000   72.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Arkansas         27.750   75.000   71.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Wyoming          26.625   72.750   76.0     0     0    0    0
  76 North Texas      26.312   74.375   75.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Marshall         25.062   74.375   77.5     0     0    0    0
  78 Tulane           23.562   78.375   76.5     0     0    0    0
  79 North Carolina   21.688   81.125   77.5     0     0    0    0
  80 Louisiana Tech   21.562   78.875   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Colorado         20.875   80.750   79.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Rutgers          17.625   83.750   83.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Tennessee        17.625   83.750   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 C Michigan       17.312   83.375   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 W Michigan       15.750   85.500   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Colorado St      14.250   84.500   89.0     0     0    0    0
  87 MTSU             14.188   87.625   86.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Southern Miss    13.500   87.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Buffalo          13.375   87.750   87.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Florida Intl     12.688   88.625   88.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Akron            12.250   90.000   87.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Arkansas St      11.062   88.875   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Air Force         9.562   90.375   92.5     0     0    0    0
  94 E Michigan        8.938   91.625   92.5     0     0    0    0
  95 New Mexico St     6.250   96.000   93.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Utah St           6.062   93.875   96.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Cincinnati        2.938   98.625   97.5     0     0    0    0
  98 UAB               1.875   99.250   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Miami OH          0.812   99.875  100.5     0     0    0    0
 100 UT San Antonio    0.562   99.875  101.0     0     0    0    0
 101 East Carolina     0.250  101.500  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Georgia St       -2.562  103.625  103.5     0     0    0    0
 103 UNLV             -3.750  104.500  105.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Tulsa            -4.000  104.500  105.5     0     0    0    0
 105 BYU              -4.562  105.125  106.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Illinois         -4.812  106.125  105.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Connecticut      -5.062  105.625  106.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Massachusetts    -6.625  106.250  109.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Old Dominion     -7.312  109.625  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 WKU              -7.500  109.000  108.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Nevada           -8.375  108.250  110.5     0     0    0    0
 112 ULM              -9.375  110.250  110.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Baylor          -10.125  107.250  115.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Idaho           -10.625  111.250  112.0     0     0    0    0
 115 New Mexico      -13.250  114.000  114.5     0     0    0    0
 116 South Alabama   -13.312  114.125  114.5     0     0    0    0
 117 ULL             -14.250  115.500  115.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Bowling Green   -14.438  115.375  115.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Hawaii          -18.375  119.250  119.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Oregon St       -19.250  119.500  121.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Coastal Car     -20.000  121.000  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Kansas          -20.562  122.125  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Ga Southern     -21.312  121.625  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Kent            -21.438  122.375  122.5     0     0    0    0
 125 San Jose St     -24.625  125.750  125.5     0     0    0    0
 126 Charlotte       -24.812  125.625  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Ball St         -25.625  126.250  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Rice            -25.812  126.625  127.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Texas St        -26.000  127.000  127.0     0     0    0    0
 130 UTEP            -29.000  130.000  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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