NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, October 25, 2014 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Mississippi St   98.875    2.250    2.0     8     8    8    4
   2 Alabama          97.625    3.750    3.0     8     8    6    1
   3 Mississippi      97.562    3.375    3.5     8     8    7    2
   4 Auburn           97.188    4.125    3.5     8     8    7    0
   5 Florida St       95.562    6.375    4.5     8     7    5    0
   6 LSU              94.188    7.125    6.5     8     7    2    0
   7 Georgia          93.562    7.375    7.5     8     7    2    1
   8 Oregon           92.312    8.875    8.5     8     6    0    0
   9 TCU              92.125    9.250    8.5     8     6    2    0
  10 Kansas St        90.438   11.125   10.0     8     4    0    0
  11 Michigan St      90.312   10.875   10.5     8     4    1    0
  12 Nebraska         86.062   14.875   15.0     8     1    0    0
  13 Baylor           86.000   15.500   14.5     8     1    0    0
  14 Oklahoma         85.875   15.750   14.5     8     1    0    0
  15 Notre Dame       85.625   15.250   15.5     8     1    0    0
  16 Clemson          85.188   15.625   16.0     8     0    0    0
  17 Arizona St       83.562   17.875   17.0     8     0    0    0
  18 West Virginia    83.125   17.250   18.5     8     0    0    0
  19 Arizona          82.500   18.500   18.5     7     1    0    0
  20 UCLA             79.062   22.375   21.5     8     0    0    0
  21 Ohio St          78.312   22.375   23.0     7     2    0    0
  22 Utah             77.500   23.000   24.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Marshall         77.250   24.500   23.0     6     0    0    0
  24 Texas A&M        76.875   23.750   24.5     6     0    0    0
  25 Missouri         76.375   24.750   24.5     8     0    0    0
  26 USC              74.250   27.000   26.5     6     0    0    0
  27 Arkansas         71.188   30.125   29.5     4     0    0    0
  28 Louisville       71.188   29.125   30.5     4     0    0    0
  29 Boise St         68.688   32.625   32.0     3     0    0    0
  30 Duke             68.375   32.250   33.0     3     0    0    0
  31 Stanford         68.312   31.875   33.5     3     0    0    0
  32 East Carolina    68.250   33.000   32.5     2     0    0    0
  33 Miami FL         68.250   34.000   31.5     3     0    0    0
  34 Wisconsin        68.062   32.875   33.0     2     0    0    0
  35 Colorado St      66.750   32.500   36.0     3     0    0    0
  36 Georgia Tech     65.750   36.000   34.5     0     0    0    0
  37 South Carolina   65.250   38.000   33.5     4     0    0    0
  38 Florida          62.938   37.625   38.5     3     0    0    0
  39 Oklahoma St      61.875   40.750   37.5     1     0    0    0
  40 Washington       60.250   40.500   41.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Kentucky         59.875   39.250   43.0     3     0    0    0
  42 Minnesota        58.875   41.750   42.5     0     0    0    0
  43 Maryland         56.125   46.250   43.5     0     0    0    0
  44 Boston College   55.625   44.750   46.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Tennessee        55.562   46.375   44.5     0     0    0    0
  46 UCF              55.250   46.500   45.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Virginia Tech    53.812   48.375   46.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Iowa             52.938   47.625   48.5     0     0    0    0
  49 North Carolina   51.750   49.500   49.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Nevada           51.188   49.125   50.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Virginia         48.562   52.375   52.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Utah St          46.812   53.375   55.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Memphis          46.625   53.250   55.5     1     0    0    0
  54 California       46.375   53.750   55.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Louisiana Tech   45.875   57.250   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Oregon St        44.562   55.875   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Penn St          42.625   57.750   59.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Texas            41.500   62.000   57.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Northwestern     41.125   59.750   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Rutgers          40.625   60.250   60.5     0     0    0    0
  61 BYU              39.812   62.375   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Ga Southern      37.125   65.250   62.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Pittsburgh       37.000   63.000   65.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Syracuse         34.938   67.125   65.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Iowa St          33.375   71.250   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 NC State         33.250   69.500   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Air Force        31.688   68.625   70.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Arkansas St      31.000   69.500   70.5     0     0    0    0
  69 MTSU             30.562   69.375   71.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Toledo           30.062   71.375   70.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Cincinnati       30.000   71.500   70.5     0     0    0    0
  72 N Illinois       29.938   70.125   72.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Houston          29.188   68.625   75.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Michigan         27.125   74.250   73.5     0     0    0    0
  75 ULL              26.938   73.125   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Washington St    26.875   75.750   72.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Illinois         26.438   75.125   74.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Texas Tech       26.062   75.375   74.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Rice             23.562   78.375   76.5     0     0    0    0
  80 San Diego St     21.688   78.125   80.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Indiana          21.250   80.000   79.5     0     0    0    0
  82 W Michigan       21.062   77.875   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Purdue           20.875   80.250   80.0     0     0    0    0
  84 UTEP             20.688   81.125   79.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Navy             18.000   82.500   83.5     0     0    0    0
  86 C Michigan       14.750   84.500   88.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Fresno St        14.125   86.750   87.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Colorado         12.938   87.625   88.5     0     0    0    0
  89 San Jose St      12.812   88.875   87.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Temple           12.125   86.250   91.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Bowling Green    10.000   89.500   92.5     0     0    0    0
  92 W Kentucky        9.688   90.625   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 UAB               9.312   90.375   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 South Alabama     7.062   93.875   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Wyoming           6.500   95.000   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 FL Atlantic       6.375   95.750   93.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Florida Intl      2.812   96.875   99.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Kansas            2.000   97.500  100.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Akron             1.875   98.250  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Hawaii            1.125   99.250  100.5     0     0    0    0
 101 Texas St          1.062   99.875  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Ball St          -0.125  100.750  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 UT San Antonio   -1.688  101.375  104.0     0     0    0    0
 104 South Florida    -2.812  103.625  104.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Vanderbilt       -3.875  105.250  104.5     0     0    0    0
 106 New Mexico       -4.250  104.000  106.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Old Dominion     -4.250  106.500  104.0     0     0    0    0
 108 ULM              -4.562  106.625  104.5     0     0    0    0
 109 Ohio             -4.688  105.875  105.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Tulane           -6.500  105.500  109.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Southern Miss    -7.750  108.500  109.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Wake Forest      -9.000  110.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 113 UNLV            -11.750  113.000  112.5     0     0    0    0
 114 Massachusetts   -13.062  113.625  114.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Tulsa           -14.188  115.875  114.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Buffalo         -14.625  114.250  117.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Army            -15.188  115.875  116.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Connecticut     -16.562  117.625  117.5     0     0    0    0
 119 North Texas     -16.625  116.750  118.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Miami OH        -16.750  117.500  118.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Appalachian St  -17.625  115.750  121.5     0     0    0    0
 122 Idaho           -21.250  122.500  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 E Michigan      -21.750  122.500  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Kent            -22.438  123.375  123.5     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -22.812  123.625  124.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Georgia St      -24.938  125.875  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Troy            -25.250  126.000  126.5     0     0    0    0
 128 SMU             -26.000  126.500  127.5     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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