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Waits/Wilson/Huckaby
Nutshell Sports Superlist
(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.)
The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the
Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality
Predictives.
The Five Core Systems
James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have
contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are
reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with
us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful
maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years.
They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I
check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team
was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)
The Retrodictives
Jay Coleman's and Brad Martin's systems are a couple of the very most
retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the
winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.
The Predictives
This season Justin Moore and Dunkel Sports represent
the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four
categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's
Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com).
The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4)
Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for
season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against
the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten
points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth
season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six
- again.
The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings.
He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name
is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I
only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to
include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just
some guy that thought up the idea (me!).
The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last
season, both were for most retrodictive wins.
This season's contributors currently are:
Update ratings.
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The idea behind the Superlist is to get
nine great minds together
to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.
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The actual positions of the teams in the
various ratings are not revealed here. For
that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose
of the Superlist is to
promote the various ratings around the Internet.
The Superlist
The Superlist
Monday, January 7, 2013 (8 systems)
You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.
The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.
In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.
If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance. If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.
rank team rating average median top30 top10 top5 top1
1 Alabama 100.000 1.000 1.0 8 8 8 8
2 Notre Dame 97.812 3.875 2.5 8 8 6 0
3 Oregon 97.438 3.625 3.5 8 8 7 0
4 Georgia 94.938 6.125 6.0 8 8 3 0
5 Florida 94.875 6.250 6.0 8 8 4 0
6 Texas A&M 94.625 6.250 6.5 8 7 3 0
7 South Carolina 93.875 7.750 6.5 8 6 2 0
8 Stanford 93.375 7.250 8.0 8 7 2 0
9 Ohio St 91.688 9.125 9.5 8 5 3 0
10 LSU 90.875 9.750 10.5 8 4 1 0
11 Kansas St 90.500 10.500 10.5 8 4 1 0
12 Florida St 89.625 11.250 11.5 8 3 0 0
13 Oklahoma 88.812 12.375 12.0 8 1 0 0
14 Clemson 87.688 13.625 13.0 8 2 0 0
15 Oregon St 82.812 18.875 17.5 8 0 0 0
16 Nebraska 82.750 18.000 18.5 8 0 0 0
17 Texas 82.188 19.125 18.5 8 0 0 0
18 Michigan 81.688 19.625 19.0 8 0 0 0
19 Oklahoma St 79.438 21.625 21.5 7 0 0 0
20 Northwestern 79.000 23.000 21.0 6 0 0 0
21 Vanderbilt 78.000 25.000 21.0 6 0 0 0
22 Utah St 78.000 23.000 23.0 7 0 0 0
23 Louisville 75.750 26.000 24.5 5 1 0 0
24 Wisconsin 75.375 24.750 26.5 7 0 0 0
25 San Jose St 73.312 31.875 23.5 5 0 0 0
26 Boise St 72.375 27.750 29.5 4 0 0 0
27 Baylor 72.188 29.625 28.0 5 0 0 0
28 UCLA 71.938 30.125 28.0 5 0 0 0
29 USC 70.562 31.375 29.5 5 0 0 0
30 N Illinois 69.875 31.250 31.0 4 0 0 0
31 Michigan St 69.750 31.500 31.0 4 0 0 0
32 Arizona St 66.312 34.875 34.5 3 0 0 0
33 Arizona 65.938 35.625 34.5 3 0 0 0
34 Penn St 65.875 37.250 33.0 1 0 0 0
35 TCU 64.938 36.625 35.5 2 0 0 0
36 BYU 64.750 36.000 36.5 3 0 0 0
37 Mississippi 64.562 37.875 35.0 4 0 0 0
38 Tulsa 63.562 37.375 37.5 2 0 0 0
39 Cincinnati 63.375 36.750 38.5 3 0 0 0
40 Texas Tech 61.688 40.125 38.5 0 0 0 0
41 Arkansas St 60.562 39.375 41.5 2 0 0 0
42 Missouri 60.500 41.000 40.0 1 0 0 0
43 Mississippi St 60.312 40.875 40.5 0 0 0 0
44 UCF 59.625 41.750 41.0 0 0 0 0
45 Syracuse 57.562 43.375 43.5 0 0 0 0
46 West Virginia 56.000 45.500 44.5 0 0 0 0
47 Rutgers 53.500 46.000 49.0 0 0 0 0
48 Louisiana Tech 53.250 49.500 46.0 0 0 0 0
49 Miami FL 53.125 48.250 47.5 0 0 0 0
50 Kent 52.375 48.250 49.0 0 0 0 0
51 Washington 51.312 49.375 50.0 0 0 0 0
52 North Carolina 48.688 51.125 53.5 1 0 0 0
53 Iowa St 47.625 53.250 53.5 0 0 0 0
54 Georgia Tech 46.000 55.000 55.0 0 0 0 0
55 Virginia Tech 45.938 53.625 56.5 0 0 0 0
56 Toledo 45.938 56.125 54.0 0 0 0 0
57 Ball St 45.250 56.500 55.0 0 0 0 0
58 Fresno St 44.375 56.750 56.5 0 0 0 0
59 Tennessee 42.500 59.500 57.5 0 0 0 0
60 Arkansas 41.562 59.375 59.5 0 0 0 0
61 San Diego St 41.562 58.875 60.0 0 0 0 0
62 ULL 39.875 59.750 62.5 0 0 0 0
63 Pittsburgh 39.438 59.125 64.0 1 0 0 0
64 NC State 37.688 64.125 62.5 0 0 0 0
65 Utah 37.125 64.250 63.5 0 0 0 0
66 SMU 33.188 68.125 67.5 0 0 0 0
67 Bowling Green 32.625 67.250 69.5 0 0 0 0
68 ULM 31.500 68.500 70.5 0 0 0 0
69 Ohio 31.125 69.750 70.0 0 0 0 0
70 Purdue 30.375 69.750 71.5 0 0 0 0
71 Minnesota 29.875 70.250 72.0 0 0 0 0
72 Duke 29.188 72.125 71.5 0 0 0 0
73 Navy 28.812 70.875 73.5 0 0 0 0
74 Middle Tenn St 28.500 73.500 71.5 0 0 0 0
75 Iowa 26.688 74.125 74.5 0 0 0 0
76 East Carolina 24.312 76.375 77.0 0 0 0 0
77 Auburn 23.125 77.250 78.5 0 0 0 0
78 California 21.375 80.250 79.0 0 0 0 0
79 Rice 19.938 81.625 80.5 0 0 0 0
80 W Kentucky 19.562 80.375 82.5 0 0 0 0
81 Nevada 19.000 80.000 84.0 0 0 0 0
82 Virginia 18.938 82.125 82.0 0 0 0 0
83 Connecticut 18.125 82.750 83.0 0 0 0 0
84 Indiana 17.625 83.250 83.5 0 0 0 0
85 Wake Forest 16.562 84.375 84.5 0 0 0 0
86 C Michigan 16.188 84.125 85.5 0 0 0 0
87 Temple 14.500 86.500 86.5 0 0 0 0
88 South Florida 13.875 86.250 88.0 0 0 0 0
89 Troy 13.062 87.375 88.5 0 0 0 0
90 Maryland 10.375 91.250 90.0 0 0 0 0
91 Marshall 10.312 90.375 91.0 0 0 0 0
92 Houston 8.375 91.750 93.5 0 0 0 0
93 Air Force 6.875 92.750 95.5 0 0 0 0
94 Washington St 5.438 95.125 96.0 0 0 0 0
95 Kentucky 4.875 95.250 97.0 0 0 0 0
96 UT San Antonio 4.500 95.500 97.5 0 0 0 0
97 Miami OH 4.438 95.125 98.0 0 0 0 0
98 W Michigan 3.562 96.875 98.0 0 0 0 0
99 North Texas 2.312 98.875 98.5 0 0 0 0
100 Wyoming 0.125 100.250 101.5 0 0 0 0
101 Boston College -0.312 101.125 101.5 0 0 0 0
102 Buffalo -1.312 103.625 101.0 0 0 0 0
103 Florida Intl -2.375 103.250 103.5 0 0 0 0
104 Texas St -3.250 104.000 104.5 0 0 0 0
105 Colorado St -3.312 103.625 105.0 0 0 0 0
106 Illinois -4.062 105.125 105.0 0 0 0 0
107 Kansas -4.250 102.500 108.0 0 0 0 0
108 Memphis -4.312 106.125 104.5 0 0 0 0
109 UTEP -6.938 106.875 109.0 0 0 0 0
110 Army -8.500 108.000 111.0 0 0 0 0
111 E Michigan -8.625 108.250 111.0 0 0 0 0
112 FL Atlantic -10.438 110.875 112.0 0 0 0 0
113 UAB -11.812 113.125 112.5 0 0 0 0
114 New Mexico -12.062 112.125 114.0 0 0 0 0
115 Hawaii -13.625 113.750 115.5 0 0 0 0
116 Colorado -14.125 114.250 116.0 0 0 0 0
117 Tulane -14.875 115.750 116.0 0 0 0 0
118 UNLV -15.062 115.125 117.0 0 0 0 0
119 South Alabama -17.250 118.000 118.5 0 0 0 0
120 Southern Miss -18.750 118.000 121.5 0 0 0 0
121 Idaho -20.000 121.000 121.0 0 0 0 0
122 Akron -20.875 121.750 122.0 0 0 0 0
123 Massachusetts -20.938 121.875 122.0 0 0 0 0
124 New Mexico St -22.062 123.125 123.0 0 0 0 0
The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.
rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula. If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.
rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)
average = average ranking by the systems.
median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position. Examples:
4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
The systems included in the Superlist are:
Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm
UCS Kickoff Rankings Data missing
http://collegefootball.home.comcast.net/~collegefootball/
NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm
Tempo-Free Gridiron
http://blog.tempo-free-gridiron.com/
Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6
F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt
Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp
David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html
2010 College Football
4;80Rhttp://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm
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The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports
Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the
property
of Ray Waits and
David Wilson.
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:
http://www.nutshellsports.com/
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
_________________________________________
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.
Sports pages you just can't miss:
David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/
Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/
Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/
Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html
Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html
Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
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