NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 12, 2015 (7 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Ohio St          99.857    1.286    1.0     7     7    7    6
   2 Oregon           98.571    2.857    2.0     7     7    6    0
   3 Alabama          97.714    3.571    3.0     7     7    6    0
   4 TCU              96.929    4.143    4.0     7     7    5    1
   5 Michigan St      96.143    4.714    5.0     7     7    6    0
   6 Florida St       93.286    8.429    7.0     7     6    3    0
   7 Baylor           92.714    8.571    8.0     7     5    1    0
   8 Georgia          92.643    7.714    9.0     7     7    1    0
   9 Mississippi      90.714   10.571   10.0     7     4    0    0
  10 Georgia Tech     90.143   11.714   10.0     7     4    0    0
  11 UCLA             89.571   11.857   11.0     7     3    0    0
  12 Clemson          88.786   12.429   12.0     7     2    0    0
  13 Mississippi St   87.643   13.714   13.0     7     3    0    0
  14 Missouri         87.571   13.857   13.0     7     0    0    0
  15 Wisconsin        86.071   14.857   15.0     7     0    0    0
  16 Auburn           83.857   17.286   17.0     7     0    0    0
  17 Arizona St       82.357   18.286   19.0     7     1    0    0
  18 USC              81.500   20.000   19.0     7     0    0    0
  19 Boise St         80.929   19.143   21.0     7     1    0    0
  20 Arkansas         80.714   20.571   20.0     7     0    0    0
  21 Kansas St        79.643   21.714   21.0     7     0    0    0
  22 Arizona          79.571   22.857   20.0     6     0    0    0
  23 Utah             78.143   22.714   23.0     6     0    0    0
  24 Stanford         77.929   23.143   23.0     6     0    0    0
  25 Texas A&M        77.643   23.714   23.0     6     0    0    0
  26 Marshall         77.143   23.714   24.0     6     0    0    0
  27 LSU              75.786   24.429   26.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Louisville       73.214   26.571   29.0     6     0    0    0
  29 Florida          71.643   29.714   29.0     4     0    0    0
  30 Notre Dame       69.429   32.143   31.0     3     0    0    0
  31 Oklahoma         68.929   32.143   32.0     2     0    0    0
  32 Nebraska         68.714   31.571   33.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Tennessee        66.714   34.571   34.0     1     0    0    0
  34 Minnesota        65.429   36.143   35.0     0     0    0    0
  35 Memphis          63.286   36.429   39.0     2     0    0    0
  36 West Virginia    62.643   39.714   37.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Colorado St      62.500   38.000   39.0     1     0    0    0
  38 South Carolina   60.143   41.714   40.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Washington       57.786   43.429   43.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Duke             57.429   45.143   42.0     0     0    0    0
  41 NC State         57.143   43.714   44.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Air Force        56.857   43.286   45.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Rutgers          56.643   46.714   42.0     2     0    0    0
  44 Louisiana Tech   56.571   43.857   45.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Utah St          54.786   45.429   47.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Oklahoma St      54.786   49.429   43.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Virginia Tech    54.500   45.000   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Boston College   53.071   46.857   49.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Miami FL         52.714   50.571   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Maryland         51.286   52.429   47.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Penn St          50.786   52.429   48.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Texas            49.357   51.286   52.0     0     0    0    0
  53 BYU              46.571   52.857   56.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Cincinnati       45.643   54.714   56.0     0     0    0    0
  55 N Illinois       44.286   56.429   57.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Iowa             43.500   59.000   56.0     0     0    0    0
  57 UCF              40.857   58.286   62.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Virginia         40.714   60.571   60.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Kentucky         40.500   61.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Michigan         39.786   61.429   61.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Navy             39.500   61.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Rice             39.000   61.000   63.0     0     0    0    0
  63 North Carolina   38.786   64.429   60.0     0     0    0    0
  64 California       38.429   61.143   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 ULL              38.000   62.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 East Carolina    35.286   62.429   69.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Toledo           33.786   67.429   67.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Northwestern     32.857   67.286   69.0     0     0    0    0
  69 W Kentucky       32.286   67.429   70.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Nevada           31.000   68.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Oregon St        30.643   69.714   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Illinois         30.500   72.000   69.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Ga Southern      30.429   67.143   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Pittsburgh       28.643   73.714   71.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Houston          27.143   73.714   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Texas Tech       25.500   79.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Washington St    24.429   77.143   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 San Diego St     22.357   78.286   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 UTEP             21.643   79.714   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 UAB              20.143   81.714   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 W Michigan       19.786   78.429   84.0     0     0    0    0
  82 MTSU             19.643   81.714   81.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Temple           18.357   82.286   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Fresno St        17.071   81.857   86.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Indiana          17.000   84.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Kansas           13.500   89.000   86.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Iowa St          13.071   90.857   85.0     0     0    0    0
  88 C Michigan       11.929   88.143   90.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Bowling Green    11.286   90.429   89.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Arkansas St      11.000   89.000   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Syracuse         10.214   90.571   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Old Dominion      8.571   91.857   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Colorado          7.786   93.429   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Appalachian St    7.643   92.714   94.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Purdue            6.214   93.571   96.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Texas St          5.714   92.571   98.0     0     0    0    0
  97 New Mexico        5.714   95.571   95.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Wyoming           2.857  100.286   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 South Alabama     2.286   97.429  100.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Vanderbilt        2.071  100.857   97.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Ball St           1.929   99.143   99.0     0     0    0    0
 102 UT San Antonio    1.357   98.286  101.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Ohio              1.214   99.571  100.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Wake Forest      -0.286  102.571  100.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Hawaii           -1.214  101.429  103.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Florida Intl     -4.714  104.429  107.0     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -6.286  106.571  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Tulane           -7.429  108.857  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Akron            -7.714  106.429  111.0     0     0    0    0
 110 South Florida    -7.786  108.571  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Buffalo          -8.643  107.286  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 San Jose St      -9.071  109.143  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 FL Atlantic      -9.286  110.571  110.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Southern Miss   -10.143  110.286  112.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Army            -10.571  109.143  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 North Texas     -10.714  110.429  113.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Tulsa           -16.857  117.714  118.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Massachusetts   -16.929  116.857  119.0     0     0    0    0
 119 UNLV            -17.643  119.286  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Kent            -19.143  120.286  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Miami OH        -19.786  120.571  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Troy            -20.571  121.143  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Connecticut     -21.000  122.000  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 SMU             -23.000  124.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -23.786  124.571  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 E Michigan      -24.643  125.286  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Idaho           -25.571  126.143  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -26.643  127.286  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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