NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Sunday, October 15, 2017 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.375    2.250    1.0     8     8    7    5
   2 Georgia          98.375    2.750    2.5     8     8    8    3
   3 Penn St          97.312    3.875    3.5     8     8    7    0
   4 Clemson          94.438    7.125    6.0     8     6    4    0
   5 TCU              94.125    6.750    7.0     8     8    2    0
   6 Notre Dame       93.438    7.125    8.0     8     6    3    0
   7 Miami FL         93.312    8.375    7.0     8     6    3    0
   8 Ohio St          92.812    9.375    7.0     8     5    3    0
   9 Wisconsin        90.188   10.625   11.0     8     4    0    0
  10 USC              89.250   11.500   12.0     8     3    0    0
  11 Michigan         87.750   14.000   12.5     8     1    0    0
  12 Oklahoma St      87.750   13.000   13.5     8     3    0    0
  13 UCF              87.688   14.625   12.0     7     4    3    0
  14 Michigan St      85.250   17.000   14.5     7     3    0    0
  15 Oklahoma         84.875   16.750   15.5     8     2    0    0
  16 Stanford         84.750   16.000   16.5     8     0    0    0
  17 Virginia Tech    84.750   17.000   15.5     8     0    0    0
  18 Washington       84.125   17.250   16.5     8     2    0    0
  19 NC State         83.375   18.250   17.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Washington St    83.000   18.000   18.0     8     0    0    0
  21 Florida St       78.000   23.500   22.5     7     0    0    0
  22 Auburn           77.750   23.000   23.5     6     2    0    0
  23 Iowa             76.625   24.750   24.0     6     0    0    0
  24 South Florida    75.562   26.875   24.0     6     0    0    0
  25 San Diego St     75.312   28.375   23.0     5     0    0    0
  26 Texas A&M        73.312   27.375   28.0     7     0    0    0
  27 West Virginia    69.312   31.375   32.0     4     0    0    0
  28 Texas Tech       68.625   33.250   31.5     4     0    0    0
  29 LSU              68.562   33.375   31.5     4     0    0    0
  30 Mississippi St   68.250   32.500   33.0     2     0    0    0
  31 Wake Forest      67.812   33.375   33.0     1     0    0    0
  32 South Carolina   67.812   32.875   33.5     3     0    0    0
  33 Virginia         67.188   36.125   31.5     3     0    0    0
  34 Boise St         66.188   34.625   35.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Memphis          66.125   36.750   33.0     4     1    0    0
  36 Iowa St          64.000   39.000   35.0     3     0    0    0
  37 Utah             63.188   38.125   37.5     1     0    0    0
  38 California       61.875   39.250   39.0     0     0    0    0
  39 Florida          61.688   40.125   38.5     0     0    0    0
  40 Oregon           60.375   40.750   40.5     1     0    0    0
  41 Navy             60.375   41.750   39.5     3     0    0    0
  42 Georgia Tech     59.875   40.250   42.0     3     0    0    0
  43 Toledo           59.312   40.875   42.5     2     0    0    0
  44 Indiana          58.938   42.125   42.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Arizona St       58.500   42.500   42.5     0     0    0    0
  46 Texas            57.375   43.750   43.5     2     0    0    0
  47 Duke             54.688   48.125   44.5     0     0    0    0
  48 Kentucky         54.625   45.750   47.0     1     0    0    0
  49 Louisville       52.750   47.500   49.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Northwestern     51.062   50.375   49.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Purdue           50.375   50.750   50.5     1     0    0    0
  52 Syracuse         49.312   50.375   53.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Arizona          49.000   50.000   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 UCLA             48.750   53.500   51.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Houston          47.188   53.625   54.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Boston College   45.688   56.125   54.5     0     0    0    0
  57 W Michigan       44.688   55.625   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Maryland         44.562   58.375   54.5     0     0    0    0
  59 SMU              41.125   59.250   60.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Marshall         40.000   60.500   61.5     0     0    0    0
  61 Minnesota        39.938   62.125   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 N Illinois       39.500   61.500   61.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Colorado St      39.062   60.375   63.5     0     0    0    0
  64 Mississippi      38.500   62.000   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Tennessee        38.375   61.750   63.5     0     0    0    0
  66 Fresno St        36.938   63.625   64.5     0     0    0    0
  67 Colorado         35.312   66.875   64.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Appalachian St   33.250   67.500   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Nebraska         31.500   69.500   69.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Army             30.562   70.375   70.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Arkansas         30.375   70.250   71.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Kansas St        30.312   66.375   75.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Troy             29.062   71.875   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Vanderbilt       28.500   72.500   72.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Pittsburgh       25.562   75.875   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Tulane           24.812   76.375   76.0     0     0    0    0
  77 North Texas      23.500   77.500   77.5     0     0    0    0
  78 Wyoming          23.000   78.500   77.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Tulsa            20.062   81.375   80.5     0     0    0    0
  80 FL Atlantic      19.938   81.125   81.0     0     0    0    0
  81 North Carolina   18.062   83.375   82.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Ohio             16.812   84.375   84.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Louisiana Tech   15.938   85.125   85.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Air Force        15.812   85.375   85.0     0     0    0    0
  85 New Mexico       15.500   86.500   84.5     0     0    0    0
  86 Southern Miss    15.125   83.250   88.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Akron            14.375   86.750   86.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Arkansas St      12.500   89.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Buffalo          11.125   89.750   90.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Utah St           9.062   91.875   92.0     0     0    0    0
  91 MTSU              8.875   93.250   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 UT San Antonio    7.875   94.250   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Temple            7.688   94.125   92.5     0     0    0    0
  94 Florida Intl      7.500   94.500   92.5     0     0    0    0
  95 Rutgers           6.812   94.875   93.5     0     0    0    0
  96 New Mexico St     5.750   96.000   94.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Cincinnati        5.750   94.500   96.0     0     0    0    0
  98 WKU               4.750   96.500   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 E Michigan        4.562   95.875   97.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Missouri          3.750   98.000   96.5     0     0    0    0
 101 UAB               1.375  100.250   99.0     0     0    0    0
 102 South Alabama    -1.188  102.875  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Illinois         -1.188  101.375  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 C Michigan       -2.125  104.250  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 UNLV             -6.250  107.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 106 ULL              -6.688  106.875  108.5     0     0    0    0
 107 Idaho            -6.812  108.625  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Connecticut      -7.750  107.500  110.0     0     0    0    0
 109 ULM              -8.125  107.750  110.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Georgia St       -9.125  109.250  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Oregon St       -10.750  112.000  111.5     0     0    0    0
 112 BYU             -10.750  109.500  114.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Hawaii          -11.125  112.250  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Kent            -11.312  111.625  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Miami OH        -11.375  111.750  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Baylor          -12.250  110.000  116.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Old Dominion    -12.812  113.125  114.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Nevada          -13.250  113.000  115.5     0     0    0    0
 119 East Carolina   -13.438  112.875  116.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Bowling Green   -16.312  116.625  118.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Ball St         -17.688  118.375  119.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Kansas          -20.562  121.625  121.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Rice            -21.688  122.375  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Massachusetts   -22.938  121.875  126.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Coastal Car     -23.625  124.750  124.5     0     0    0    0
 126 San Jose St     -23.750  125.000  124.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Ga Southern     -23.875  123.750  126.0     0     0    0    0
 128 UTEP            -26.000  127.000  127.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Texas St        -26.312  127.125  127.5     0     0    0    0
 130 Charlotte       -27.000  128.000  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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