NCAA Football Superlist

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 12, 2015 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Ohio St          99.833    1.333    1.0     9     9    9    7
   2 Oregon           98.611    2.778    2.0     9     9    8    0
   3 TCU              97.167    3.667    4.0     9     9    7    2
   4 Alabama          97.167    3.667    4.0     9     9    8    0
   5 Michigan St      96.000    5.000    5.0     9     9    7    0
   6 Baylor           93.000    8.000    8.0     9     7    1    0
   7 Georgia          92.667    7.667    9.0     9     9    2    0
   8 Florida St       92.278   10.444    7.0     9     7    3    0
   9 Mississippi      90.611   10.778   10.0     9     5    0    0
  10 Mississippi St   89.667   12.667   10.0     9     5    0    0
  11 UCLA             89.000   13.000   11.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Georgia Tech     88.833   12.333   12.0     9     4    0    0
  13 Clemson          87.278   14.444   13.0     9     2    0    0
  14 Missouri         87.222   14.556   13.0     9     0    0    0
  15 Wisconsin        86.167   14.667   15.0     9     1    0    0
  16 Auburn           83.722   17.556   17.0     9     1    0    0
  17 Arizona St       81.944   19.111   19.0     9     1    0    0
  18 USC              81.722   19.556   19.0     9     0    0    0
  19 Arkansas         81.222   19.556   20.0     9     0    0    0
  20 Kansas St        80.778   19.444   21.0     9     0    0    0
  21 Boise St         80.222   20.556   21.0     8     1    0    0
  22 Arizona          79.889   22.222   20.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Stanford         78.778   22.444   22.0     8     0    0    0
  24 Marshall         77.556   22.889   24.0     8     0    0    0
  25 Utah             76.722   24.556   24.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Texas A&M        76.722   25.556   23.0     7     0    0    0
  27 LSU              76.333   23.333   26.0     8     0    0    0
  28 Louisville       72.722   27.556   29.0     7     0    0    0
  29 Florida          71.833   29.333   29.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Oklahoma         70.722   29.556   31.0     4     0    0    0
  31 Nebraska         70.167   30.667   31.0     4     0    0    0
  32 Notre Dame       68.167   33.667   32.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Tennessee        66.944   34.111   34.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Minnesota        66.000   35.000   35.0     1     0    0    0
  35 West Virginia    64.222   37.556   36.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Memphis          63.556   35.889   39.0     3     0    0    0
  37 Louisiana Tech   61.167   41.667   38.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Colorado St      60.667   39.667   41.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Washington       60.500   42.000   39.0     0     0    0    0
  40 South Carolina   60.167   41.667   40.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Duke             56.389   45.222   44.0     0     0    0    0
  42 NC State         55.389   46.222   45.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Utah St          54.722   45.556   47.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Texas            54.222   48.556   45.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Virginia Tech    53.722   46.556   48.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Miami FL         53.611   48.778   46.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Boston College   53.000   47.000   49.0     1     0    0    0
  48 Oklahoma St      51.778   49.444   49.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Air Force        51.444   48.111   51.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Rutgers          49.611   51.778   51.0     2     0    0    0
  51 Maryland         48.000   53.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  52 BYU              47.611   52.778   54.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Cincinnati       46.611   52.778   56.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Penn St          46.167   54.667   55.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Iowa             46.000   56.000   54.0     0     0    0    0
  56 N Illinois       43.167   58.667   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 UCF              42.778   56.444   60.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Virginia         42.722   58.556   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 East Carolina    40.333   60.333   61.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Kentucky         40.056   61.889   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Michigan         39.778   61.444   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 California       39.667   59.667   63.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Navy             38.333   62.333   63.0     0     0    0    0
  64 North Carolina   37.056   64.889   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 ULL              36.500   65.000   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Ga Southern      36.500   66.000   63.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Rice             36.222   64.556   65.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Toledo           33.722   67.556   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Northwestern     33.667   66.667   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Pittsburgh       33.556   68.889   66.0     0     0    0    0
  71 W Kentucky       31.944   68.111   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Oregon St        30.611   69.778   71.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Nevada           30.167   69.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Illinois         28.500   73.000   72.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Houston          28.444   71.111   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Texas Tech       25.556   78.889   72.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Washington St    24.944   76.111   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 San Diego St     22.944   77.111   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 UAB              20.889   80.222   80.0     0     0    0    0
  80 UTEP             20.667   80.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 W Michigan       20.500   77.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Temple           20.500   80.000   81.0     0     0    0    0
  83 MTSU             18.278   83.444   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Indiana          16.889   84.222   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Fresno St        16.389   83.222   86.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Arkansas St      12.833   87.333   89.0     0     0    0    0
  87 C Michigan       12.000   88.000   90.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Iowa St          11.889   92.222   86.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Purdue           11.222   91.556   88.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Kansas           11.111   89.778   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Syracuse         10.667   89.667   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Appalachian St    9.389   90.222   93.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Bowling Green     9.167   92.667   91.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Colorado          8.944   91.111   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Old Dominion      6.722   94.556   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Texas St          6.333   93.333   96.0     0     0    0    0
  97 New Mexico        4.278   96.444   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Wyoming           3.611   98.778   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Vanderbilt        1.833  101.333   97.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Ball St           1.722   99.556   99.0     0     0    0    0
 101 South Alabama     1.000   99.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Hawaii            0.722  100.556  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Ohio              0.611  100.778  100.0     0     0    0    0
 104 UT San Antonio    0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Wake Forest      -0.222  102.444  100.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Florida Intl     -3.056  103.111  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -5.500  106.000  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Tulane           -6.611  107.222  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 South Florida    -7.500  108.000  109.0     0     0    0    0
 110 FL Atlantic      -8.778  109.556  110.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Buffalo          -9.000  108.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 San Jose St      -9.167  109.333  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Akron            -9.556  108.111  113.0     0     0    0    0
 114 North Texas     -10.556  110.111  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Southern Miss   -10.889  111.778  112.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Army            -11.056  110.111  114.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Massachusetts   -15.778  116.556  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Tulsa           -16.833  117.667  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 UNLV            -18.167  119.333  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Miami OH        -19.722  120.444  121.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kent            -19.722  120.444  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Connecticut     -20.778  121.556  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Troy            -20.833  121.667  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 SMU             -23.167  124.333  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -23.889  124.778  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Idaho           -24.833  125.667  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 E Michigan      -25.389  125.778  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -26.611  127.222  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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