NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Richard Billingsley's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Justin Moore and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 6, 2014 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Florida St      100.000    1.000    1.0     9     9    9    9
   2 Auburn           98.556    2.889    2.0     9     9    8    0
   3 Michigan St      96.889    5.222    3.0     9     8    8    0
   4 Alabama          95.778    5.444    5.0     9     9    5    0
   5 Missouri         94.889    6.222    6.0     9     8    4    0
   6 Stanford         94.722    6.556    6.0     9     8    3    0
   7 South Carolina   94.222    7.556    6.0     9     8    2    0
   8 Oregon           92.722    8.556    8.0     9     6    2    0
   9 Oklahoma         91.611    9.778    9.0     9     5    2    0
  10 Clemson          90.778   10.444   10.0     9     5    0    0
  11 Baylor           89.944   11.111   11.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Ohio St          88.056   13.889   12.0     9     3    0    0
  13 LSU              87.667   13.667   13.0     9     1    0    0
  14 Oklahoma St      86.444   14.111   15.0     9     2    0    0
  15 UCLA             86.389   15.222   14.0     9     1    0    0
  16 UCF              85.222   14.556   17.0     9     3    1    0
  17 Louisville       84.000   18.000   16.0     9     1    0    0
  18 Arizona St       83.111   17.778   18.0     9     0    0    0
  19 Texas A&M        83.056   17.889   18.0     9     0    0    0
  20 Washington       80.556   20.889   20.0     9     0    0    0
  21 USC              79.889   22.222   20.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Wisconsin        79.389   21.222   22.0     8     1    1    0
  23 Notre Dame       76.389   24.222   25.0     9     0    0    0
  24 Georgia          76.167   26.667   23.0     7     0    0    0
  25 Mississippi      76.056   24.889   25.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Kansas St        73.056   27.889   28.0     6     0    0    0
  27 Texas            71.944   29.111   29.0     7     0    0    0
  28 Vanderbilt       71.500   30.000   29.0     5     0    0    0
  29 Arizona          71.500   31.000   28.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Mississippi St   69.500   32.000   31.0     4     0    0    0
  31 Duke             67.389   34.222   33.0     4     0    0    0
  32 Iowa             67.222   33.556   34.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Texas Tech       66.500   36.000   33.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Nebraska         65.556   35.889   35.0     2     0    0    0
  35 BYU              64.667   36.667   36.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Fresno St        64.167   37.667   36.0     2     0    0    0
  37 Miami FL         62.556   40.889   36.0     0     0    0    0
  38 N Illinois       60.556   37.889   43.0     3     0    0    0
  39 Utah St          60.389   42.222   39.0     1     0    0    0
  40 Oregon St        60.333   41.333   40.0     2     0    0    0
  41 Virginia Tech    59.722   43.556   39.0     1     0    0    0
  42 Georgia Tech     59.056   41.889   42.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Michigan         56.722   44.556   44.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Penn St          54.333   47.333   46.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Minnesota        54.278   48.444   45.0     0     0    0    0
  46 North Carolina   53.278   46.444   49.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Pittsburgh       51.889   48.222   50.0     0     0    0    0
  48 East Carolina    51.500   49.000   50.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Bowling Green    51.444   46.111   53.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Navy             50.667   49.667   51.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Washington St    50.444   51.111   50.0     1     0    0    0
  52 Utah             50.222   49.556   52.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Houston          47.556   51.889   55.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Boise St         47.389   52.222   55.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Syracuse         47.167   55.667   52.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Rice             45.889   56.222   54.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Marshall         44.889   56.222   56.0     0     0    0    0
  58 North Texas      43.111   56.778   59.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Cincinnati       41.000   59.000   61.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Tennessee        40.778   57.444   63.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Indiana          40.000   62.000   60.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Florida          39.889   63.222   59.0     0     0    0    0
  63 TCU              39.778   61.444   61.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Boston College   39.667   62.667   60.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Ball St          37.944   62.111   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Toledo           37.333   63.333   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Northwestern     37.056   65.889   62.0     0     0    0    0
  68 San Diego St     36.278   63.444   66.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Arkansas St      31.000   69.000   71.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Maryland         30.667   72.667   68.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Buffalo          29.389   73.222   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 ULL              29.278   69.444   74.0     0     0    0    0
  73 UT San Antonio   28.222   71.556   74.0     0     0    0    0
  74 W Kentucky       27.611   71.778   75.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Colorado St      26.278   74.444   75.0     0     0    0    0
  76 San Jose St      25.444   75.111   76.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Middle Tenn St   25.222   76.556   75.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Iowa St          22.111   79.778   78.0     0     0    0    0
  79 South Alabama    20.611   80.778   80.0     0     0    0    0
  80 UNLV             18.389   82.222   83.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Illinois         18.333   81.333   84.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Tulane           18.278   82.444   83.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Arkansas         18.222   81.556   84.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Wake Forest      17.722   83.556   83.0     0     0    0    0
  85 FL Atlantic      17.111   83.778   84.0     0     0    0    0
  86 West Virginia    16.500   82.000   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Colorado         16.222   84.556   85.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Rutgers          15.222   84.556   87.0     0     0    0    0
  89 ULM              14.222   87.556   86.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Troy             12.444   86.111   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 SMU              11.278   88.444   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Ohio              8.500   90.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Nevada            7.833   92.333   94.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Kansas            6.111   96.778   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 NC State          5.444   95.111   96.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Akron             4.278   98.444   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Virginia          4.056   96.889   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Texas St          2.056   99.889   98.0     0     0    0    0
  99 C Michigan        1.833   99.333   99.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Kent              1.444   99.111  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Connecticut       0.889  100.222  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Kentucky          0.889  100.222  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Tulsa             0.278   99.444  102.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Memphis          -0.444  101.889  101.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Wyoming          -1.167  102.333  102.0     0     0    0    0
 106 California       -3.778  105.556  104.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Temple           -5.222  104.444  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 New Mexico       -5.944  106.889  107.0     0     0    0    0
 109 South Florida    -6.056  107.111  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Purdue           -9.389  109.778  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Louisiana Tech   -9.833  109.667  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Hawaii          -10.000  111.000  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Army            -10.944  111.889  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Air Force       -12.722  113.444  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 UAB             -14.500  116.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 116 UTEP            -14.667  115.333  116.0     0     0    0    0
 117 New Mexico St   -15.444  115.889  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Idaho           -17.111  117.222  119.0     0     0    0    0
 119 E Michigan      -18.111  119.222  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Southern Miss   -18.889  119.778  120.0     0     0    0    0
 121 W Michigan      -19.611  120.222  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Georgia St      -20.500  121.000  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Florida Intl    -21.778  122.556  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Massachusetts   -21.944  122.889  123.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Miami OH        -23.778  124.556  125.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

College Football Research Center Rankings
http://www.cfrc.com//

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Tempo-Free Gridiron
http://blog.tempo-free-gridiron.com/

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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