NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 9, 2017 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.500    1.500    1.5     8     8    8    4
   2 Clemson          99.438    1.625    1.5     8     8    8    4
   3 Ohio St          97.625    3.750    3.0     8     8    6    0
   4 Washington       96.875    4.250    4.0     8     8    8    0
   5 Florida St       94.375    6.750    6.5     8     7    3    0
   6 Oklahoma         94.062    6.875    7.0     8     8    2    0
   7 USC              93.562    7.875    7.0     8     6    1    0
   8 Wisconsin        92.625    8.250    8.5     8     8    0    0
   9 Michigan         91.625    9.750    9.0     8     4    3    0
  10 Penn St          90.562   11.875    9.0     8     6    1    0
  11 LSU              87.875   14.750   11.5     7     2    0    0
  12 Florida          86.688   14.625   14.0     8     0    0    0
  13 Virginia Tech    85.438   15.625   15.5     8     0    0    0
  14 Miami FL         85.438   16.125   15.0     8     0    0    0
  15 Stanford         84.938   16.625   15.5     8     2    0    0
  16 Oklahoma St      84.875   15.750   16.5     8     1    0    0
  17 W Michigan       83.875   17.250   17.0     8     2    0    0
  18 Colorado         83.125   17.750   18.0     8     0    0    0
  19 Auburn           82.000   19.500   18.5     7     1    0    0
  20 Tennessee        81.312   20.375   19.0     7     0    0    0
  21 West Virginia    80.125   21.250   20.5     8     0    0    0
  22 Louisville       79.438   21.125   22.0     7     1    0    0
  23 Kansas St        77.312   24.375   23.0     6     0    0    0
  24 Georgia Tech     73.750   28.500   26.0     6     0    0    0
  25 South Florida    71.938   29.625   28.5     5     0    0    0
  26 Pittsburgh       71.875   29.750   28.5     4     0    0    0
  27 North Carolina   71.750   30.000   28.5     4     0    0    0
  28 WKU              71.000   31.500   28.5     5     0    0    0
  29 Washington St    70.312   31.375   30.0     4     0    0    0
  30 Minnesota        70.062   32.375   29.5     5     0    0    0
  31 Nebraska         69.812   31.375   31.0     2     0    0    0
  32 Texas A&M        68.250   32.500   33.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Appalachian St   68.000   34.000   32.0     3     0    0    0
  34 Utah             66.812   35.375   33.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Iowa             66.500   33.500   35.5     2     0    0    0
  36 Georgia          65.000   37.500   34.5     1     0    0    0
  37 Boise St         64.750   35.000   37.5     2     0    0    0
  38 NC State         63.312   37.875   37.5     2     0    0    0
  39 Northwestern     61.500   39.500   39.5     1     0    0    0
  40 BYU              60.188   40.625   41.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Tulsa            59.500   43.000   40.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Temple           59.062   40.375   43.5     1     0    0    0
  43 San Diego St     58.812   40.875   43.5     2     0    0    0
  44 Houston          56.375   43.250   46.0     2     0    0    0
  45 Arkansas         55.750   47.000   43.5     0     0    0    0
  46 Air Force        53.938   46.625   47.5     1     0    0    0
  47 Troy             52.000   46.000   52.0     2     0    0    0
  48 Mississippi      49.125   54.250   49.5     0     0    0    0
  49 Boston College   48.875   54.750   49.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Wake Forest      48.438   52.625   52.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Kentucky         48.438   52.625   52.5     0     0    0    0
  52 Baylor           48.312   52.875   52.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Toledo           46.375   56.750   52.5     0     0    0    0
  54 Vanderbilt       45.688   55.125   55.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Memphis          45.062   55.375   56.5     0     0    0    0
  56 TCU              45.062   55.375   56.5     0     0    0    0
  57 Navy             44.688   55.625   57.0     0     0    0    0
  58 Mississippi St   44.125   55.750   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Louisiana Tech   41.875   60.250   58.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Old Dominion     38.750   63.500   61.0     0     0    0    0
  61 California       38.562   63.375   61.5     0     0    0    0
  62 Idaho            38.500   63.500   61.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Wyoming          36.062   61.875   68.0     1     0    0    0
  64 New Mexico       35.438   67.625   63.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Texas            34.812   66.375   66.0     0     0    0    0
  66 South Carolina   34.688   66.125   66.5     0     0    0    0
  67 UCLA             34.375   66.250   67.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Indiana          34.000   66.500   67.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Texas Tech       33.750   66.500   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Oregon           32.750   71.000   65.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Arkansas St      31.562   72.875   66.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Colorado St      31.438   68.625   70.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Arizona St       31.250   71.000   68.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Notre Dame       30.812   68.875   71.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Army             30.750   68.000   72.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Duke             28.875   70.250   74.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Missouri         26.062   73.875   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Maryland         24.000   77.500   76.5     0     0    0    0
  79 UCF              23.562   76.875   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Oregon St        21.375   77.750   81.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Ohio             19.688   80.625   82.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Syracuse         19.250   81.500   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 MTSU             18.562   81.375   83.5     0     0    0    0
  84 Southern Miss    16.625   82.750   86.0     0     0    0    0
  85 SMU              16.500   85.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Ga Southern      15.438   86.625   84.5     0     0    0    0
  87 Michigan St      15.000   86.500   85.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Iowa St          13.438   87.625   87.5     0     0    0    0
  89 E Michigan       11.375   89.750   89.5     0     0    0    0
  90 N Illinois       11.062   89.875   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Hawaii           10.312   91.875   89.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Arizona           9.062   92.875   91.0     0     0    0    0
  93 ULL               8.375   93.250   92.0     0     0    0    0
  94 UT San Antonio    7.688   92.125   94.5     0     0    0    0
  95 C Michigan        6.938   94.625   93.5     0     0    0    0
  96 Miami OH          5.812   95.375   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Illinois          5.375   96.250   95.0     0     0    0    0
  98 South Alabama     5.188   96.625   95.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Cincinnati        4.812   94.875   97.5     0     0    0    0
 100 Tulane            3.812   96.875   97.5     0     0    0    0
 101 Virginia          2.062  100.875   97.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Utah St          -1.062  102.625  101.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Akron            -1.938  102.875  103.0     0     0    0    0
 104 East Carolina    -2.000  103.000  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Purdue           -2.938  102.875  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 San Jose St      -4.188  105.375  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Nevada           -4.312  104.625  106.0     0     0    0    0
 108 North Texas      -6.938  107.375  108.5     0     0    0    0
 109 UNLV             -8.250  109.000  109.5     0     0    0    0
 110 ULM              -9.750  110.000  111.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Connecticut     -10.250  111.000  111.5     0     0    0    0
 112 Rutgers         -11.812  111.625  114.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Bowling Green   -11.875  113.250  112.5     0     0    0    0
 114 Georgia St      -12.188  112.375  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Ball St         -12.312  113.125  113.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Florida Intl    -13.125  113.250  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Kansas          -14.625  114.750  116.5     0     0    0    0
 118 New Mexico St   -14.625  115.250  116.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Charlotte       -15.875  115.750  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Massachusetts   -16.562  116.125  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kent            -17.188  117.875  118.5     0     0    0    0
 122 UTEP            -19.438  119.375  121.5     0     0    0    0
 123 Marshall        -19.938  119.875  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Rice            -20.938  121.375  122.5     0     0    0    0
 125 FL Atlantic     -22.312  123.625  123.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Buffalo         -25.500  126.000  127.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Fresno St       -25.875  126.750  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Texas St        -26.312  126.625  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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