NCAA Football Superlist

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, December 6, 2014 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.722    1.556    1.0     9     9    9    6
   2 Oregon           98.278    2.444    3.0     9     9    9    2
   3 TCU              97.833    3.333    3.0     9     9    9    0
   4 Baylor           95.722    5.556    5.0     9     9    5    0
   5 Ohio St          95.667    5.667    5.0     9     8    6    0
   6 Mississippi St   93.944    7.111    7.0     9     9    1    0
   7 Florida St       93.722    7.556    7.0     9     7    4    1
   8 Mississippi      92.889    8.222    8.0     9     7    1    0
   9 Michigan St      92.000    9.000    9.0     9     7    1    0
  10 Georgia          89.833   11.333   11.0     9     4    0    0
  11 Auburn           89.222   12.556   11.0     9     4    0    0
  12 Kansas St        88.611   12.778   12.0     9     2    0    0
  13 LSU              85.500   16.000   15.0     9     0    0    0
  14 Arizona          85.500   17.000   14.0     8     2    0    0
  15 UCLA             85.333   15.333   16.0     9     2    0    0
  16 Georgia Tech     84.500   16.000   17.0     9     1    0    0
  17 Missouri         83.500   18.000   17.0     9     0    0    0
  18 Wisconsin        82.222   18.556   19.0     9     1    0    0
  19 Arkansas         81.111   20.778   19.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Arizona St       80.944   20.111   20.0     9     0    0    0
  21 Clemson          79.833   21.333   21.0     9     0    0    0
  22 Oklahoma         79.389   20.222   23.0     9     0    0    0
  23 USC              79.278   21.444   22.0     9     0    0    0
  24 Boise St         76.611   23.778   25.0     6     0    0    0
  25 Louisville       76.222   24.556   25.0     8     0    0    0
  26 Nebraska         73.167   27.667   28.0     8     0    0    0
  27 Utah             72.556   29.889   27.0     6     0    0    0
  28 Stanford         71.833   28.333   30.0     6     0    0    0
  29 West Virginia    71.611   28.778   30.0     7     0    0    0
  30 Texas A&M        70.889   31.222   29.0     5     0    0    0
  31 Florida          70.611   30.778   30.0     5     0    0    0
  32 Marshall         70.556   30.889   30.0     5     0    0    0
  33 Minnesota        68.167   32.667   33.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Colorado St      67.444   34.111   33.0     3     0    0    0
  35 Washington       65.722   35.556   35.0     0     0    0    0
  36 Notre Dame       62.889   39.222   37.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Tennessee        62.167   38.667   39.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Memphis          60.944   40.111   40.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Texas            60.944   41.111   39.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Boston College   59.389   41.222   42.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Duke             59.389   42.222   41.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Miami FL         57.556   43.889   43.0     0     0    0    0
  43 South Carolina   54.611   46.778   46.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Cincinnati       54.278   46.444   47.0     0     0    0    0
  45 BYU              54.056   45.889   48.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Utah St          52.500   48.000   49.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Iowa             51.167   50.667   49.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Maryland         51.000   50.000   50.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Air Force        50.500   51.000   50.0     1     0    0    0
  50 Oklahoma St      49.722   52.556   50.0     1     0    0    0
  51 Louisiana Tech   49.389   51.222   52.0     0     0    0    0
  52 UCF              48.889   52.222   52.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Virginia Tech    48.722   53.556   51.0     0     0    0    0
  54 NC State         48.222   52.556   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 N Illinois       47.000   55.000   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 North Carolina   43.389   59.222   56.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Virginia         43.389   57.222   58.0     0     0    0    0
  58 East Carolina    42.444   59.111   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Rutgers          41.222   59.556   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Nevada           40.944   60.111   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 California       40.667   58.667   62.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Pittsburgh       39.667   63.667   59.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Kentucky         38.444   63.111   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Ga Southern      36.889   64.222   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Penn St          36.833   63.333   65.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Michigan         36.556   64.889   64.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Northwestern     34.444   67.111   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Illinois         33.833   68.333   66.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Toledo           32.111   69.778   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Navy             31.278   69.444   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Oregon St        29.556   70.889   72.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Texas Tech       29.111   74.778   69.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Washington St    28.778   75.444   69.0     0     0    0    0
  74 San Diego St     27.833   72.333   74.0     0     0    0    0
  75 W Kentucky       27.778   72.444   74.0     0     0    0    0
  76 W Michigan       25.667   73.667   77.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Rice             24.778   76.444   76.0     0     0    0    0
  78 ULL              23.611   77.778   77.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Houston          22.889   77.222   79.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Fresno St        22.667   76.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  81 UTEP             20.111   80.778   81.0     0     0    0    0
  82 UAB              18.889   82.222   82.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Temple           17.778   83.444   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Arkansas St      16.889   82.222   86.0     0     0    0    0
  85 MTSU             16.111   84.778   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Syracuse         14.944   87.111   85.0     0     0    0    0
  87 C Michigan       13.611   86.778   88.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Iowa St          13.500   90.000   85.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Colorado         13.278   88.444   87.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Indiana          13.167   87.667   88.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Kansas           12.333   87.333   90.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Appalachian St   11.111   87.778   92.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Purdue            9.333   92.333   91.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Texas St          6.778   92.444   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Wyoming           4.556   97.889   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 South Alabama     4.500   96.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Bowling Green     4.444   96.111   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Old Dominion      4.389   97.222   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 New Mexico        4.000   97.000   97.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Hawaii            1.111   99.778  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Ohio              0.944  101.111   99.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Wake Forest       0.333  101.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Ball St           0.278  100.444  101.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Vanderbilt       -0.833  102.667  101.0     0     0    0    0
 105 UT San Antonio   -1.833  102.667  103.0     0     0    0    0
 106 Florida Intl     -4.444  103.889  107.0     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -4.778  104.556  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 San Jose St      -6.333  107.667  107.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Tulane           -6.500  107.000  108.0     0     0    0    0
 110 South Florida    -6.889  107.778  108.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Akron            -8.889  108.778  111.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Buffalo          -9.944  108.889  113.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Southern Miss   -10.333  110.667  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 FL Atlantic     -10.444  110.889  112.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Army            -11.000  111.000  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 North Texas     -11.333  110.667  114.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Massachusetts   -16.278  116.556  118.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Tulsa           -17.167  118.333  118.0     0     0    0    0
 119 UNLV            -17.333  118.667  118.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Kent            -19.778  120.556  121.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Miami OH        -20.222  120.444  122.0     0     0    0    0
 122 Connecticut     -20.556  121.111  122.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Troy            -21.444  121.889  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 SMU             -23.444  124.889  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Idaho           -24.167  125.333  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 New Mexico St   -24.333  124.667  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 E Michigan      -25.389  125.778  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Georgia St      -26.056  127.111  127.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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