NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Todd Beck's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Steve Wrathell and Dunkel Sports represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are: 1) Dunkel, 2) Tempo Free, 3) Nutshell Sports, 4) Covers.com, 5) Kambour. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour received the most awards in these categories at six - again.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 9, 2017 (7 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Clemson          99.714    1.571    1.0     7     7    7    4
   2 Alabama          99.214    1.571    2.0     7     7    7    3
   3 Ohio St          97.571    3.857    3.0     7     7    5    0
   4 Washington       96.929    4.143    4.0     7     7    7    0
   5 Florida St       95.000    6.000    6.0     7     7    3    0
   6 Oklahoma         93.857    7.286    7.0     7     7    1    0
   7 USC              93.643    7.714    7.0     7     5    1    0
   8 Wisconsin        92.286    8.429    9.0     7     7    0    0
   9 Penn St          91.000   11.000    9.0     7     6    1    0
  10 Michigan         89.857   10.286   12.0     7     3    3    0
  11 LSU              87.357   15.286   12.0     6     2    0    0
  12 Florida          87.357   13.286   14.0     7     0    0    0
  13 Stanford         86.429   16.143   13.0     7     2    0    0
  14 Miami FL         86.214   14.571   15.0     7     0    0    0
  15 Virginia Tech    85.929   15.143   15.0     7     0    0    0
  16 Oklahoma St      83.929   16.143   18.0     7     1    0    0
  17 W Michigan       83.357   18.286   17.0     7     1    0    0
  18 Colorado         82.000   18.000   20.0     7     0    0    0
  19 Tennessee        81.929   19.143   19.0     6     0    0    0
  20 Auburn           80.929   20.143   20.0     6     1    0    0
  21 West Virginia    79.071   21.857   22.0     7     0    0    0
  22 Louisville       77.500   23.000   24.0     6     0    0    0
  23 Kansas St        77.214   24.571   23.0     5     0    0    0
  24 Georgia Tech     75.500   26.000   25.0     6     0    0    0
  25 Pittsburgh       73.714   28.571   26.0     4     0    0    0
  26 WKU              71.643   31.714   27.0     4     0    0    0
  27 Minnesota        71.643   29.714   29.0     5     0    0    0
  28 South Florida    71.571   29.857   29.0     4     0    0    0
  29 Nebraska         69.786   31.429   31.0     2     0    0    0
  30 North Carolina   69.643   30.714   32.0     3     0    0    0
  31 Appalachian St   69.143   32.714   31.0     3     0    0    0
  32 Washington St    68.643   32.714   32.0     3     0    0    0
  33 Iowa             66.929   33.143   35.0     2     0    0    0
  34 Texas A&M        66.429   34.143   35.0     2     0    0    0
  35 Georgia          65.929   36.143   34.0     1     0    0    0
  36 Utah             65.643   36.714   34.0     2     0    0    0
  37 NC State         65.214   35.571   36.0     2     0    0    0
  38 Boise St         64.286   35.429   38.0     2     0    0    0
  39 Northwestern     62.857   38.286   38.0     1     0    0    0
  40 San Diego St     59.857   40.286   42.0     2     0    0    0
  41 BYU              59.714   41.571   41.0     1     0    0    0
  42 Temple           58.786   40.429   44.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Tulsa            58.714   43.571   41.0     0     0    0    0
  44 Air Force        55.929   45.143   45.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Troy             53.357   44.286   51.0     2     0    0    0
  46 Arkansas         53.143   48.714   47.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Houston          52.286   47.429   50.0     1     0    0    0
  48 Boston College   51.786   50.429   48.0     0     0    0    0
  49 Wake Forest      51.214   50.571   49.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Kentucky         49.571   50.857   52.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Baylor           47.429   54.143   53.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Vanderbilt       47.357   53.286   54.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Mississippi      46.000   56.000   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Toledo           45.571   57.857   53.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Mississippi St   45.429   55.143   56.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Memphis          43.786   57.429   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Idaho            43.571   59.857   55.0     0     0    0    0
  58 TCU              43.000   58.000   58.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Navy             41.571   58.857   60.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Old Dominion     41.071   61.857   58.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Louisiana Tech   39.643   61.714   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 California       38.714   63.571   61.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Wyoming          37.643   60.714   66.0     1     0    0    0
  64 South Carolina   36.429   65.143   64.0     0     0    0    0
  65 New Mexico       34.857   68.286   64.0     0     0    0    0
  66 Texas            33.786   68.429   66.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Army             33.643   66.714   68.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Indiana          33.214   67.571   68.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Texas Tech       32.500   68.000   69.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Colorado St      32.429   67.143   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 UCLA             32.071   67.857   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Oregon           31.500   72.000   67.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Arkansas St      31.071   73.857   66.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Arizona St       30.286   72.429   69.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Duke             30.071   68.857   73.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Notre Dame       26.929   71.143   77.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Missouri         25.571   73.857   77.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Maryland         24.500   77.000   76.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Syracuse         23.071   79.857   76.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Oregon St        21.929   77.143   81.0     0     0    0    0
  81 UCF              21.643   77.714   81.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Ohio             19.000   81.000   83.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Southern Miss    17.429   82.143   85.0     0     0    0    0
  84 SMU              17.286   83.429   84.0     0     0    0    0
  85 Ga Southern      16.143   86.714   83.0     0     0    0    0
  86 MTSU             15.929   83.143   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Michigan St      13.000   88.000   88.0     0     0    0    0
  88 E Michigan       12.929   87.143   89.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Hawaii           11.571   90.857   88.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Iowa St          11.071   89.857   90.0     0     0    0    0
  91 ULL               9.714   92.571   90.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Arizona           9.500   93.000   90.0     0     0    0    0
  93 N Illinois        9.143   90.714   93.0     0     0    0    0
  94 UT San Antonio    9.071   90.857   93.0     0     0    0    0
  95 South Alabama     8.143   95.714   90.0     0     0    0    0
  96 C Michigan        5.857   96.286   94.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Miami OH          5.500   96.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  98 Tulane            5.071   95.857   96.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Illinois          4.714   96.571   96.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Cincinnati        4.071   95.857   98.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Virginia          0.786  102.429   98.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Utah St          -1.500  103.000  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Purdue           -2.214  102.429  104.0     0     0    0    0
 104 East Carolina    -2.429  103.857  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Akron            -3.500  104.000  105.0     0     0    0    0
 106 San Jose St      -4.214  105.429  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 Nevada           -4.500  105.000  106.0     0     0    0    0
 108 North Texas      -5.286  106.571  106.0     0     0    0    0
 109 UNLV             -8.500  109.000  110.0     0     0    0    0
 110 ULM              -8.857  108.714  111.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Rutgers          -9.929  110.857  111.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Connecticut     -11.786  111.571  114.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Georgia St      -12.071  112.143  114.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Bowling Green   -12.357  113.714  113.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Kansas          -12.500  114.000  113.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Florida Intl    -13.000  113.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 New Mexico St   -13.500  114.000  115.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Ball St         -13.714  113.429  116.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Charlotte       -14.214  114.429  116.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Massachusetts   -16.857  116.714  119.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Kent            -17.429  117.857  119.0     0     0    0    0
 122 UTEP            -18.929  118.857  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Marshall        -20.714  120.429  123.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Rice            -21.214  121.429  123.0     0     0    0    0
 125 FL Atlantic     -22.429  123.857  123.0     0     0    0    0
 126 Buffalo         -25.429  125.857  127.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Fresno St       -25.929  126.857  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Texas St        -26.214  126.429  128.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

CPA Rankings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/wrathell.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Performanz Ratings
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaperformanz.php

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Dunkel Index Data missing
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football.asp

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2013 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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