NCAA Football Superlist

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Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Retrodictives

Jay Coleman's and Bruce Payne's systems are a couple of the very most retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.

The Predictives

This season Edward Kambour and Nutshell Sports once again represent the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are in the same order as last season, though most had less points (that means they had better win some awards): 1) Edward Kambour, 2) Nutshell Sports, 3) StatFox, 4) Sagarin Overall, 5) Pigskin. The totals were from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to the tenth season back. Edward Kambour also received the most awards in these categories at six.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last season, both were for most retrodictive wins.

This season's contributors currently are:

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 9, 2012 (9 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Alabama          99.833    1.333    1.0     9     9    9    6
   2 LSU              99.167    1.667    2.0     9     9    9    3
   3 Oklahoma St      97.500    4.000    3.0     9     9    7    0
   4 Oregon           96.333    5.333    4.0     9     9    5    0
   5 Arkansas         95.667    5.667    5.0     9     8    7    0
   6 Stanford         94.278    6.444    7.0     9     8    3    0
   7 Boise St         93.611    8.778    6.0     9     6    2    0
   8 Oklahoma         92.944    8.111    8.0     9     8    1    0
   9 South Carolina   92.000    9.000    9.0     9     7    0    0
  10 USC              90.389   11.222   10.0     9     4    1    0
  11 Wisconsin        89.500   12.000   11.0     9     3    0    0
  12 Michigan St      86.722   15.556   13.0     9     0    0    0
  13 Baylor           86.444   17.111   12.0     8     3    0    0
  14 TCU              85.500   16.000   15.0     9     0    0    0
  15 Georgia          85.333   17.333   14.0     9     0    0    0
  16 Houston          85.222   14.556   17.0     9     2    0    0
  17 Michigan         84.611   16.778   16.0     8     1    0    0
  18 Kansas St        84.111   15.778   18.0     9     2    1    0
  19 Texas            80.389   20.222   21.0     9     0    0    0
  20 Missouri         79.611   23.778   19.0     8     0    0    0
  21 Texas A&M        78.778   24.444   20.0     8     0    0    0
  22 Florida St       77.278   25.444   22.0     7     1    0    0
  23 Auburn           77.167   24.667   23.0     7     0    0    0
  24 Nebraska         75.889   24.222   26.0     8     1    0    0
  25 West Virginia    75.444   26.111   25.0     8     0    0    0
  26 Southern Miss    75.222   27.556   24.0     5     0    0    0
  27 Virginia Tech    73.500   24.000   31.0     8     0    0    0
  28 Notre Dame       73.056   28.889   27.0     6     0    0    0
  29 Florida          71.722   29.556   29.0     5     0    0    0
  30 Mississippi St   70.833   30.333   30.0     5     0    0    0
  31 Cincinnati       69.778   34.444   28.0     4     0    0    0
  32 Clemson          69.722   28.556   34.0     6     0    0    0
  33 Penn St          69.667   30.667   32.0     6     0    0    0
  34 BYU              66.333   36.333   33.0     0     0    0    0
  35 Tulsa            65.000   37.000   35.0     0     0    0    0
  36 Rutgers          62.111   40.778   37.0     0     0    0    0
  37 California       60.444   41.111   40.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Utah             60.278   38.444   43.0     2     0    0    0
  39 Toledo           59.389   47.222   36.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Iowa St          58.944   42.111   42.0     1     0    0    0
  41 Louisiana Tech   58.278   47.444   38.0     0     0    0    0
  42 Vanderbilt       57.444   48.111   39.0     0     0    0    0
  43 Iowa             57.056   42.889   45.0     1     0    0    0
  44 N Illinois       56.889   47.222   41.0     1     0    0    0
  45 Washington       54.722   43.556   49.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Tennessee        53.556   50.889   44.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Ohio St          53.222   47.556   48.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Miami FL         50.611   49.778   51.0     1     0    0    0
  49 NC State         50.222   55.556   46.0     0     0    0    0
  50 SMU              50.056   54.889   47.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Arizona St       49.944   50.111   52.0     1     0    0    0
  52 Texas Tech       49.833   52.333   50.0     0     0    0    0
  53 North Carolina   49.611   48.778   54.0     0     0    0    0
  54 Georgia Tech     48.944   48.111   56.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Virginia         47.500   50.000   57.0     2     0    0    0
  56 Temple           46.333   56.333   53.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Louisville       45.667   55.667   55.0     0     0    0    0
  58 UCLA             41.833   57.333   61.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Illinois         41.556   56.889   62.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Pittsburgh       40.111   61.778   60.0     0     0    0    0
  61 Northwestern     40.056   62.889   59.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Nevada           39.167   65.667   58.0     0     0    0    0
  63 Purdue           38.667   60.667   64.0     0     0    0    0
  64 Ohio             38.389   62.222   63.0     0     0    0    0
  65 Arkansas St      37.833   58.333   68.0     0     0    0    0
  66 South Florida    35.278   66.444   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Kentucky         33.333   69.333   66.0     0     0    0    0
  68 Wake Forest      33.111   68.778   67.0     0     0    0    0
  69 San Diego St     33.056   66.889   69.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Marshall         30.778   68.444   72.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Arizona          30.611   70.778   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Air Force        27.722   72.556   74.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Navy             27.611   75.778   71.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Connecticut      27.556   73.889   73.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Wyoming          26.667   72.667   76.0     0     0    0    0
  76 ULL              26.444   70.111   79.0     0     0    0    0
  77 W Michigan       25.389   73.222   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Utah St          24.278   78.444   75.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Oregon St        21.722   78.556   80.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Boston College   21.222   82.556   77.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Syracuse         20.500   77.000   84.0     0     0    0    0
  82 UCF              17.611   83.778   83.0     0     0    0    0
  83 East Carolina    17.167   81.667   86.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Minnesota        17.111   85.778   82.0     0     0    0    0
  85 San Jose St      15.889   89.222   81.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Washington St    15.778   83.444   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Ball St          15.500   86.000   85.0     0     0    0    0
  88 W Kentucky       14.611   82.778   90.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Florida Intl     12.167   84.667   93.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Kansas           11.556   86.889   92.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Bowling Green    10.833   89.333   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Mississippi      10.667   92.667   88.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Colorado         10.667   91.667   89.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Rice              8.000   90.000   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Hawaii            7.556   92.889   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 UTEP              6.000   95.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 Fresno St         4.444   96.111   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 E Michigan        3.333   96.333   99.0     0     0    0    0
  99 Duke              3.222   94.556  101.0     0     0    0    0
 100 Miami OH          2.833   98.333   98.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Kent              2.389   97.222  100.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Maryland          0.333   99.333  102.0     0     0    0    0
 103 North Texas      -0.722   98.444  105.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Army             -1.722  101.444  104.0     0     0    0    0
 105 ULM              -2.778  101.556  106.0     0     0    0    0
 106 New Mexico St    -3.056  105.111  103.0     0     0    0    0
 107 C Michigan       -7.222  108.444  108.0     0     0    0    0
 108 UAB              -7.667  107.333  110.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Idaho            -8.111  111.222  107.0     0     0    0    0
 110 Buffalo          -9.000  111.000  109.0     0     0    0    0
 111 Troy             -9.722  108.444  113.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Colorado St      -9.778  110.556  111.0     0     0    0    0
 113 Indiana         -10.500  111.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 UNLV            -11.500  111.000  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Middle Tenn St  -14.222  112.444  118.0     0     0    0    0
 116 New Mexico      -14.889  116.778  115.0     0     0    0    0
 117 Memphis         -15.611  117.222  116.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Tulane          -15.833  116.667  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 FL Atlantic     -16.556  116.111  119.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Akron           -19.000  120.000  120.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm

Bruce Payne's Ratings
http://knology.net/~brucepayne/PayneRatings.htm

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.kambour.net/football.html

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

Nutshell Sports
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2010 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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