NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Saturday, December 4, 2021 (6 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Georgia          99.333    1.833    1.5     6     6    6    3
   2 Alabama          99.000    2.000    2.0     6     6    6    2
   3 Michigan         98.083    2.833    3.0     6     6    6    0
   4 Cincinnati       96.667    4.167    4.5     6     6    5    1
   5 Ohio St          96.333    4.833    4.5     6     6    5    0
   6 Notre Dame       95.000    6.000    6.0     6     6    2    0
   7 Oklahoma St      93.083    8.333    7.5     6     5    0    0
   8 Mississippi      92.083    8.833    9.0     6     6    0    0
   9 Baylor           90.917   11.167    9.0     6     4    0    0
  10 Pittsburgh       90.167   10.667   11.0     6     3    0    0
  11 Oklahoma         89.833   11.333   11.0     6     1    0    0
  12 Michigan St      88.083   14.333   11.5     6     2    0    0
  13 Utah             86.833   14.333   14.0     6     0    0    0
  14 Wisconsin        86.250   15.500   14.0     6     1    0    0
  15 Clemson          83.917   16.167   18.0     6     1    0    0
  16 Penn St          83.083   19.333   16.5     6     0    0    0
  17 Iowa             82.500   20.500   16.5     5     0    0    0
  18 Texas A&M        80.750   20.500   20.0     5     1    0    0
  19 Arkansas         79.500   21.500   21.5     6     0    0    0
  20 NC State         78.333   22.333   23.0     6     0    0    0
  21 Iowa St          78.167   23.167   22.5     4     0    0    0
  22 Purdue           77.667   23.167   23.5     5     0    0    0
  23 Wake Forest      77.333   24.333   23.0     5     0    0    0
  24 Kentucky         77.083   24.333   23.5     5     0    0    0
  25 BYU              75.083   28.333   23.5     4     0    0    0
  26 Auburn           73.083   29.333   26.5     4     0    0    0
  27 Oregon           72.833   28.833   27.5     5     0    0    0
  28 Tennessee        71.083   30.333   29.5     3     0    0    0
  29 Mississippi St   70.667   30.667   30.0     3     0    0    0
  30 Minnesota        70.333   30.333   31.0     3     0    0    0
  31 Louisiana        69.833   29.333   33.0     3     0    0    0
  32 Houston          68.167   32.167   33.5     2     0    0    0
  33 LSU              66.750   36.000   32.5     2     0    0    0
  34 Appalachian St   65.167   36.667   35.0     2     0    0    0
  35 UCLA             64.833   35.833   36.5     2     0    0    0
  36 UT San Antonio   63.750   35.000   39.5     2     0    0    0
  37 Miami FL         63.333   37.333   38.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Boise St         62.250   38.500   39.0     1     0    0    0
  39 Air Force        61.417   40.667   38.5     0     0    0    0
  40 Fresno St        59.667   41.667   41.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Kansas St        59.583   40.333   42.5     1     0    0    0
  42 Texas            58.833   42.833   41.5     0     0    0    0
  43 San Diego St     57.917   43.667   42.5     2     0    0    0
  44 Arizona St       55.583   44.833   46.0     0     0    0    0
  45 Nevada           54.167   46.667   47.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Army             53.833   48.833   45.5     0     0    0    0
  47 Utah St          53.250   48.500   47.0     1     0    0    0
  48 Louisville       52.000   49.500   48.5     0     0    0    0
  49 SMU              50.750   51.000   49.5     0     0    0    0
  50 Coastal Car      50.583   52.833   48.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Nebraska         50.333   53.833   47.5     0     0    0    0
  52 West Virginia    50.167   51.167   50.5     0     0    0    0
  53 Florida          49.250   48.500   55.0     1     0    0    0
  54 North Carolina   48.500   51.000   54.0     1     0    0    0
  55 Oregon St        48.333   52.333   53.0     0     0    0    0
  56 Washington St    47.417   53.167   54.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Virginia         46.000   55.000   55.0     0     0    0    0
  58 WKU              45.750   54.500   56.0     0     0    0    0
  59 Texas Tech       44.750   57.500   55.0     0     0    0    0
  60 Maryland         40.000   59.500   62.5     0     0    0    0
  61 UAB              38.417   64.167   61.0     0     0    0    0
  62 UCF              38.333   61.833   63.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Virginia Tech    37.583   64.333   62.5     0     0    0    0
  64 Florida St       37.333   64.833   62.5     0     0    0    0
  65 South Carolina   35.500   65.500   65.5     0     0    0    0
  66 C Michigan       34.750   67.500   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 Illinois         33.167   67.167   68.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Missouri         33.000   69.500   66.5     0     0    0    0
  69 East Carolina    32.750   68.500   68.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Liberty          32.083   67.833   70.0     0     0    0    0
  71 Marshall         28.917   71.667   72.5     0     0    0    0
  72 TCU              27.833   72.333   74.0     0     0    0    0
  73 Syracuse         27.667   74.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  74 W Michigan       27.250   73.000   74.5     0     0    0    0
  75 California       27.167   75.667   72.0     0     0    0    0
  76 Boston College   27.000   75.000   73.0     0     0    0    0
  77 Toledo           26.750   74.000   74.5     0     0    0    0
  78 Tulsa            24.667   76.167   76.5     0     0    0    0
  79 N Illinois       24.083   73.833   80.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Rutgers          23.917   76.667   77.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Georgia St       22.583   77.333   79.5     0     0    0    0
  82 Memphis          21.167   79.667   80.0     0     0    0    0
  83 USC              19.667   79.667   83.0     0     0    0    0
  84 Miami OH         16.417   84.667   84.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Washington       15.750   85.500   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 Wyoming          14.917   86.167   86.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Georgia Tech     11.917   88.667   89.5     0     0    0    0
  88 Ball St          11.667   88.667   90.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Indiana           9.833   91.333   91.0     0     0    0    0
  90 E Michigan        8.250   90.000   95.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Hawaii            8.167   93.667   92.0     0     0    0    0
  92 Navy              8.167   93.167   92.5     0     0    0    0
  93 Colorado          8.083   92.333   93.5     0     0    0    0
  94 Kent              7.583   90.833   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Stanford          7.000   93.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  96 MTSU              6.500   94.000   95.0     0     0    0    0
  97 North Texas       5.833   95.333   95.0     0     0    0    0
  98 San Jose St       3.333   98.833   96.5     0     0    0    0
  99 FL Atlantic       1.833   98.833   99.5     0     0    0    0
 100 Old Dominion      1.750   97.500  101.0     0     0    0    0
 101 Northwestern      1.500   98.500  100.5     0     0    0    0
 102 Tulane            1.000   99.500  100.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Troy              0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Colorado St      -0.167  100.333  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 UTEP             -0.500   99.500  103.5     0     0    0    0
 106 South Alabama    -3.250  105.000  103.5     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -6.500  108.500  106.5     0     0    0    0
 108 South Florida    -8.333  109.167  109.5     0     0    0    0
 109 UNLV             -9.250  110.000  110.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Kansas           -9.417  110.333  110.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Buffalo         -10.250  111.500  111.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Louisiana Tech  -11.667  111.833  113.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Arizona         -12.083  114.167  112.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Duke            -12.083  113.667  112.5     0     0    0    0
 115 Charlotte       -13.333  114.167  114.5     0     0    0    0
 116 Rice            -13.917  114.333  115.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Ga Southern     -14.333  115.167  115.5     0     0    0    0
 118 Vanderbilt      -14.833  116.167  115.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Bowling Green   -15.417  116.833  116.0     0     0    0    0
 120 Texas St        -16.583  117.167  118.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Ohio            -17.750  118.500  119.0     0     0    0    0
 122 New Mexico      -20.083  121.167  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Southern Miss   -20.917  121.833  122.0     0     0    0    0
 124 Arkansas St     -21.083  122.167  122.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Temple          -23.333  123.667  125.0     0     0    0    0
 126 New Mexico St   -24.917  125.833  126.0     0     0    0    0
 127 Akron           -25.917  126.833  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Connecticut     -27.000  128.000  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Florida Intl    -27.917  128.833  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 Massachusetts   -29.000  130.000  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football Data missing
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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