NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 10, 2022 (6 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 Georgia         100.000    1.000    1.0     6     6    6    6
   2 Alabama          99.000    2.000    2.0     6     6    6    0
   3 Michigan         96.917    4.167    4.0     6     6    5    0
   4 Ohio St          96.667    4.667    4.0     6     6    5    0
   5 Oklahoma St      95.333    5.833    5.5     6     6    3    0
   6 Cincinnati       94.833    6.833    5.5     6     5    3    0
   7 Baylor           93.750    7.500    7.0     6     5    2    0
   8 Oklahoma         92.917    8.167    8.0     6     6    0    0
   9 Notre Dame       91.833    8.833    9.5     6     6    0    0
  10 Michigan St      91.333   10.333    9.0     6     5    0    0
  11 Clemson          88.417   12.167   13.0     6     1    0    0
  12 Mississippi      87.250   13.500   14.0     6     0    0    0
  13 Wisconsin        86.667   15.167   13.5     6     0    0    0
  14 Arkansas         85.083   14.833   17.0     6     1    0    0
  15 Pittsburgh       84.333   16.833   16.5     6     0    0    0
  16 Utah             82.167   19.167   18.5     6     0    0    0
  17 Purdue           81.500   20.000   19.0     6     0    0    0
  18 Kentucky         80.500   21.000   20.0     6     0    0    0
  19 Texas A&M        79.167   22.667   21.0     5     0    0    0
  20 Wake Forest      79.167   21.167   22.5     6     0    0    0
  21 Houston          78.083   23.333   22.5     5     0    0    0
  22 Penn St          77.583   24.833   22.0     4     0    0    0
  23 Iowa             76.667   24.167   24.5     5     0    0    0
  24 Iowa St          76.583   24.333   24.5     4     1    0    0
  25 Louisiana        76.000   24.500   25.5     3     0    0    0
  26 Minnesota        75.250   25.000   26.5     6     0    0    0
  27 NC State         74.500   25.500   27.5     5     0    0    0
  28 Kansas St        72.500   28.500   28.5     3     0    0    0
  29 Auburn           68.917   33.167   31.0     3     0    0    0
  30 Tennessee        67.750   35.000   31.5     3     0    0    0
  31 San Diego St     67.583   33.833   33.0     3     0    0    0
  32 BYU              67.000   36.000   32.0     2     0    0    0
  33 Oregon           66.833   34.833   33.5     1     0    0    0
  34 Texas Tech       66.500   37.000   32.0     1     0    0    0
  35 Air Force        65.417   35.167   36.0     2     0    0    0
  36 Boise St         63.167   38.667   37.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Utah St          62.500   40.000   37.0     2     0    0    0
  38 Texas            61.750   38.500   40.0     2     0    0    0
  39 Mississippi St   58.833   41.833   42.5     0     0    0    0
  40 WKU              58.333   42.833   42.5     1     0    0    0
  41 UCLA             58.250   43.000   42.5     1     0    0    0
  42 Appalachian St   57.667   43.667   43.0     0     0    0    0
  43 UT San Antonio   57.333   41.333   46.0     2     0    0    0
  44 Miami FL         56.417   44.667   44.5     0     0    0    0
  45 LSU              54.667   47.167   45.5     0     0    0    0
  46 Fresno St        54.333   44.833   48.5     2     0    0    0
  47 SMU              52.083   48.833   49.0     0     0    0    0
  48 Army             51.333   51.333   48.0     0     0    0    0
  49 UCF              51.333   49.333   50.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Maryland         51.333   50.333   49.0     0     0    0    0
  51 Louisville       50.333   52.333   49.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Coastal Car      50.000   50.500   51.5     0     0    0    0
  53 South Carolina   49.917   51.667   50.5     0     0    0    0
  54 Nebraska         49.500   54.500   48.5     0     0    0    0
  55 Arizona St       49.167   51.667   52.0     0     0    0    0
  56 West Virginia    47.833   51.333   55.0     0     0    0    0
  57 Liberty          46.667   55.667   53.0     0     0    0    0
  58 UAB              46.000   54.500   55.5     0     0    0    0
  59 Nevada           44.583   56.333   56.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Florida          42.333   55.833   61.5     1     0    0    0
  61 W Michigan       40.917   61.167   59.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Virginia         39.500   61.500   61.5     0     0    0    0
  63 Oregon St        39.500   61.000   62.0     0     0    0    0
  64 North Carolina   36.750   63.000   65.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Washington St    36.000   65.500   64.5     0     0    0    0
  66 C Michigan       35.917   65.167   65.0     0     0    0    0
  67 TCU              34.667   67.167   65.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Tulsa            34.583   67.333   65.5     0     0    0    0
  69 Florida St       33.083   68.833   67.0     0     0    0    0
  70 Georgia St       32.500   69.000   68.0     0     0    0    0
  71 East Carolina    31.833   68.333   70.0     0     0    0    0
  72 Illinois         31.417   68.667   70.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Missouri         30.500   71.000   70.0     0     0    0    0
  74 Marshall         28.583   73.333   71.5     0     0    0    0
  75 Virginia Tech    26.417   74.667   74.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Wyoming          23.250   77.000   78.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Syracuse         22.500   79.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  78 Memphis          22.333   78.333   79.0     0     0    0    0
  79 Miami OH         22.333   79.333   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Boston College   21.000   80.500   79.5     0     0    0    0
  81 Rutgers          20.750   80.000   80.5     0     0    0    0
  82 California       20.083   81.333   80.5     0     0    0    0
  83 N Illinois       19.667   78.167   84.5     0     0    0    0
  84 Toledo           18.417   82.667   82.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Navy             16.667   83.667   85.0     0     0    0    0
  86 USC              15.417   84.167   87.0     0     0    0    0
  87 MTSU             14.750   85.500   87.0     0     0    0    0
  88 Washington       12.583   88.833   88.0     0     0    0    0
  89 Indiana          10.583   91.333   89.5     0     0    0    0
  90 Hawaii            9.000   93.000   91.0     0     0    0    0
  91 Georgia Tech      8.917   91.667   92.5     0     0    0    0
  92 Kent              6.917   93.167   95.0     0     0    0    0
  93 Ball St           6.750   93.500   95.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Stanford          5.917   95.667   94.5     0     0    0    0
  95 Colorado          5.833   95.833   94.5     0     0    0    0
  96 E Michigan        5.750   94.000   96.5     0     0    0    0
  97 Tulane            4.083   96.833   97.0     0     0    0    0
  98 FL Atlantic       3.833   97.333   97.0     0     0    0    0
  99 North Texas       3.417   98.167   97.0     0     0    0    0
 100 UTEP              2.583   97.333   99.5     0     0    0    0
 101 San Jose St       2.500   99.000   98.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Northwestern      1.833   98.333  100.0     0     0    0    0
 103 Old Dominion      1.750   98.500  100.0     0     0    0    0
 104 Troy             -0.083  100.167  102.0     0     0    0    0
 105 Colorado St      -1.083  101.167  103.0     0     0    0    0
 106 South Alabama    -3.417  104.833  104.0     0     0    0    0
 107 ULM              -6.417  107.833  107.0     0     0    0    0
 108 Kansas           -6.833  107.667  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 South Florida    -8.333  109.167  109.5     0     0    0    0
 110 UNLV             -9.583  110.667  110.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Buffalo         -11.000  112.000  112.0     0     0    0    0
 112 Louisiana Tech  -11.583  112.667  112.5     0     0    0    0
 113 Charlotte       -12.000  112.500  113.5     0     0    0    0
 114 Rice            -12.333  112.667  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 Ga Southern     -13.250  114.500  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 Arizona         -14.333  116.167  114.5     0     0    0    0
 117 Duke            -14.417  115.833  115.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Vanderbilt      -15.583  116.667  116.5     0     0    0    0
 119 Texas St        -16.583  116.667  118.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Bowling Green   -16.750  118.500  117.0     0     0    0    0
 121 Ohio            -18.667  119.333  120.0     0     0    0    0
 122 New Mexico      -19.833  120.667  121.0     0     0    0    0
 123 Southern Miss   -20.500  121.500  121.5     0     0    0    0
 124 Arkansas St     -21.083  122.167  122.0     0     0    0    0
 125 Temple          -22.667  122.833  124.5     0     0    0    0
 126 New Mexico St   -24.500  125.500  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Akron           -26.167  127.333  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 Connecticut     -26.917  127.833  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Florida Intl    -27.833  128.667  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 Massachusetts   -29.000  130.000  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings Data missing
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football Data missing
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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