NCAA Football Superlist

When the Superlist changes, notify me or send it to me. Historic Superlists: 2004 2009 2011

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Raters' interviews are now accessed through David Wilson


Waits/Wilson/Huckaby Nutshell Sports Superlist

(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.) The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality Predictives.

The Five Core Systems

James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years. They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)

The Predictives

I've dropped the retrodictive open spots since the permanent ones are retrodictive. Starting this year I am using the best all-around - a combination of best straight up, against the line, absolute error, and mean square error as tracked by Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). . The system also must be listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Composite as that is the source of the Superlist. The Superlist is non-biased and does its components are not chosen by personal preference.

The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just some guy that thought up the idea (me!).

This season's contributors currently are:

Update ratings.

The idea behind the Superlist is to get nine great minds together to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.

The actual positions of the teams in the various ratings are not revealed here. For that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose of the Superlist is to promote the various ratings around the Internet.

The Superlist 

The Superlist
Monday, January 13, 2020 (8 systems)


You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.

The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.

In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.

If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if 
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance.  If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.

rank team             rating  average  median top30 top10 top5 top1

   1 LSU             100.000    1.000    1.0     8     8    8    8
   2 Ohio St          98.500    2.500    2.5     8     8    8    0
   3 Clemson          98.500    2.500    2.5     8     8    8    0
   4 Georgia          96.438    4.625    4.5     8     8    7    0
   5 Alabama          95.750    5.500    5.0     8     8    4    0
   6 Penn St          95.125    6.250    5.5     8     8    4    0
   7 Florida          93.500    7.500    7.5     8     8    0    0
   8 Oklahoma         92.562    8.375    8.5     8     7    0    0
   9 Oregon           92.438    8.625    8.5     8     6    1    0
  10 Notre Dame       90.750   10.500   10.0     8     5    0    0
  11 Auburn           89.562   11.375   11.5     8     2    0    0
  12 Wisconsin        88.812   12.875   11.5     8     2    0    0
  13 Michigan         86.438   14.625   14.5     8     0    0    0
  14 Iowa             85.062   15.875   16.0     8     0    0    0
  15 Baylor           84.750   16.500   16.0     8     0    0    0
  16 Minnesota        84.562   16.375   16.5     8     1    0    0
  17 Memphis          84.250   17.000   16.5     8     0    0    0
  18 Utah             83.000   18.000   18.0     8     0    0    0
  19 Navy             81.875   19.250   19.0     8     0    0    0
  20 Appalachian St   80.188   20.125   21.5     8     0    0    0
  21 Texas            79.812   20.875   21.5     8     1    0    0
  22 Cincinnati       78.688   22.625   22.0     8     0    0    0
  23 Texas A&M        78.375   22.750   22.5     8     0    0    0
  24 Air Force        77.062   24.875   23.0     6     0    0    0
  25 UCF              76.875   24.250   24.0     7     0    0    0
  26 Washington       75.562   24.875   26.0     7     0    0    0
  27 Boise St         74.438   27.125   26.0     6     0    0    0
  28 USC              72.000   28.500   29.5     6     0    0    0
  29 Oklahoma St      69.875   31.250   31.0     4     0    0    0
  30 Iowa St          69.312   32.375   31.0     4     0    0    0
  31 Kansas St        69.250   31.500   32.0     3     0    0    0
  32 FL Atlantic      68.875   32.250   32.0     3     0    0    0
  33 SMU              68.625   32.250   32.5     3     0    0    0
  34 Louisiana        67.375   33.750   33.5     3     0    0    0
  35 Tennessee        66.500   34.500   34.5     1     0    0    0
  36 Virginia         66.125   34.750   35.0     0     0    0    0
  37 Arizona St       64.125   37.750   36.0     1     0    0    0
  38 Kentucky         61.812   38.375   40.0     0     0    0    0
  39 California       60.688   42.625   38.0     0     0    0    0
  40 Michigan St      59.938   41.125   41.0     0     0    0    0
  41 Louisville       59.000   42.000   42.0     0     0    0    0
  42 North Carolina   58.438   41.125   44.0     1     0    0    0
  43 Indiana          58.250   43.500   42.0     0     0    0    0
  44 TCU              55.000   47.500   44.5     0     0    0    0
  45 San Diego St     54.750   46.500   46.0     0     0    0    0
  46 Mississippi St   54.312   47.375   46.0     0     0    0    0
  47 Tulane           52.188   48.625   49.0     0     0    0    0
  48 South Carolina   51.938   50.625   47.5     0     0    0    0
  49 Hawaii           49.562   54.875   48.0     0     0    0    0
  50 Virginia Tech    49.188   52.125   51.5     0     0    0    0
  51 Washington St    48.438   53.125   52.0     0     0    0    0
  52 Wake Forest      48.125   53.750   52.0     0     0    0    0
  53 Missouri         46.312   53.875   55.5     1     0    0    0
  54 Pittsburgh       44.812   55.375   57.0     0     0    0    0
  55 Oregon St        44.750   57.500   55.0     0     0    0    0
  56 West Virginia    41.125   62.750   57.0     0     0    0    0
  57 BYU              41.125   62.250   57.5     0     0    0    0
  58 Temple           41.125   60.250   59.5     0     0    0    0
  59 Wyoming          41.125   59.250   60.5     0     0    0    0
  60 Florida St       40.688   60.125   60.5     0     0    0    0
  61 Nebraska         37.938   63.125   63.0     0     0    0    0
  62 Colorado         36.812   66.875   61.5     0     0    0    0
  63 WKU              36.250   64.000   65.5     0     0    0    0
  64 Louisiana Tech   35.750   63.000   67.5     0     0    0    0
  65 Miami FL         33.562   65.875   69.0     0     0    0    0
  66 UCLA             33.312   68.875   66.5     0     0    0    0
  67 Mississippi      33.250   68.000   67.5     0     0    0    0
  68 Buffalo          32.812   67.375   69.0     0     0    0    0
  69 Utah St          32.312   69.875   67.5     0     0    0    0
  70 Boston College   31.625   69.250   69.5     0     0    0    0
  71 Texas Tech       31.625   71.250   67.5     0     0    0    0
  72 Tulsa            29.938   71.625   70.5     0     0    0    0
  73 Marshall         29.812   68.875   73.5     0     0    0    0
  74 Stanford         28.375   73.250   72.0     0     0    0    0
  75 Illinois         26.875   74.750   73.5     0     0    0    0
  76 Duke             26.062   73.375   76.5     0     0    0    0
  77 Purdue           25.312   76.875   74.5     0     0    0    0
  78 Miami OH         24.312   74.875   78.5     0     0    0    0
  79 Ga Southern      24.000   76.000   78.0     0     0    0    0
  80 Arkansas St      22.875   77.250   79.0     0     0    0    0
  81 Houston          22.625   76.750   80.0     0     0    0    0
  82 Ohio             22.000   79.000   79.0     0     0    0    0
  83 Kent             20.312   79.375   82.0     0     0    0    0
  84 W Michigan       20.125   80.250   81.5     0     0    0    0
  85 Syracuse         17.938   81.625   84.5     0     0    0    0
  86 Southern Miss    17.875   83.250   83.0     0     0    0    0
  87 Arizona          17.438   83.625   83.5     0     0    0    0
  88 UAB              11.500   87.500   91.5     0     0    0    0
  89 C Michigan       10.812   89.375   91.0     0     0    0    0
  90 Liberty          10.562   90.375   90.5     0     0    0    0
  91 Northwestern     10.312   90.375   91.0     0     0    0    0
  92 ULM               8.062   93.375   92.5     0     0    0    0
  93 Nevada            7.250   96.500   91.0     0     0    0    0
  94 Ball St           6.688   92.625   96.0     0     0    0    0
  95 Maryland          6.500   95.000   94.0     0     0    0    0
  96 Georgia St        6.250   95.500   94.0     0     0    0    0
  97 South Florida     6.125   95.250   94.5     0     0    0    0
  98 Fresno St         4.312   95.875   97.5     0     0    0    0
  99 Kansas            3.938   97.625   96.5     0     0    0    0
 100 San Jose St       0.188  101.625  100.0     0     0    0    0
 101 E Michigan        0.000  101.000  101.0     0     0    0    0
 102 Charlotte        -1.062  100.625  103.5     0     0    0    0
 103 Toledo           -2.062  103.625  102.5     0     0    0    0
 104 Troy             -2.250  103.500  103.0     0     0    0    0
 105 NC State         -2.688  103.875  103.5     0     0    0    0
 106 Army             -3.188  103.375  105.0     0     0    0    0
 107 N Illinois       -6.250  107.000  107.5     0     0    0    0
 108 Colorado St      -6.562  107.125  108.0     0     0    0    0
 109 Florida Intl     -6.812  107.125  108.5     0     0    0    0
 110 Vanderbilt       -6.812  108.125  107.5     0     0    0    0
 111 Georgia Tech     -7.000  108.500  107.5     0     0    0    0
 112 Coastal Car      -7.625  108.250  109.0     0     0    0    0
 113 MTSU            -10.625  109.250  114.0     0     0    0    0
 114 Arkansas        -11.562  111.125  114.0     0     0    0    0
 115 UNLV            -12.562  113.125  114.0     0     0    0    0
 116 North Texas     -15.062  114.625  117.5     0     0    0    0
 117 East Carolina   -15.688  116.375  117.0     0     0    0    0
 118 Rutgers         -16.188  117.375  117.0     0     0    0    0
 119 Texas St        -16.500  117.500  117.5     0     0    0    0
 120 Rice            -17.938  118.375  119.5     0     0    0    0
 121 South Alabama   -19.875  120.750  121.0     0     0    0    0
 122 UT San Antonio  -21.312  122.125  122.5     0     0    0    0
 123 New Mexico      -21.500  122.500  122.5     0     0    0    0
 124 Bowling Green   -22.500  123.000  124.0     0     0    0    0
 125 New Mexico St   -24.500  125.500  125.5     0     0    0    0
 126 Connecticut     -24.625  125.750  125.5     0     0    0    0
 127 Old Dominion    -25.375  125.750  127.0     0     0    0    0
 128 UTEP            -26.875  127.750  128.0     0     0    0    0
 129 Massachusetts   -28.125  129.250  129.0     0     0    0    0
 130 Akron           -28.812  129.625  130.0     0     0    0    0

The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.

rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula.  If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.

   rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)

average = average ranking by the systems.

median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position.  Examples:

4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
 
The systems included in the Superlist are:

NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm

Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6

F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt

David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html

2017 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm

Time Travel Sports
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt

Atomic Football
http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-ratings.html

Accuratings Data missing
http://accuratings.webs.com/ncaaf.html

Power Ratings
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/col-foot.htm

 
_________________________________________
 
The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the property of Ray Waits and David Wilson.
 
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:

http://www.nutshellsports.com/
 
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
 
_________________________________________
 
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.

Sports pages you just can't miss:

David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/

Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html

Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html

Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:

ray@ebarrelracing.com

 

 

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