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Waits/Wilson/Huckaby
Nutshell Sports Superlist
(The Superlist systems are selected by Ray Waits.)
The Superlist will this season consist of a better formulation - the
Five Core Systems, two high-quality Retrodictives, and two high-quality
Predictives.
The Five Core Systems
James Howell, Kenneth Massey, David Rothman, David Wilson and Peter Wolfe have
contributed considerably to the world of sports ratings. Their systems are
reliable and well-established. Unfortunately, David Rothman is no longer with
us but his ratings will continue through Dr. Peter Wolfe's thoughtful
maintenance. I have faithfully followed David Wilson's ratings over the years.
They have always been among the handful I check every week. (Another system I
check every week is one David maintains for me. If you ever ask me what team
was the best in a given year, that's the one I go to.)
The Retrodictives
Jay Coleman's and Bruce Payne's systems are a couple of the very most
retrodictive, meaning they had the highest number of games in which the
winner is the higher rated of the two teams playing.
The Predictives
This season Edward Kambour and Nutshell Sports once again represent
the predictive ratings. These were chosen by tallying up four
categories of awards for the past ten seasons on Todd Beck's
Prediction Tracker (link = http://www.thepredictiontracker.com). The top five systems are in the
same order as last season, though most had less points (that means
they had better win some awards): 1) Edward Kambour, 2) Nutshell
Sports, 3) StatFox, 4) Sagarin Overall, 5) Pigskin. The totals were
from four categories - straight up for season, straight up for second
half, against the spread for season, and against the spread for
second half. Last season's winner in each category received ten
points, the previous season's winner received nine, and so on down to
the tenth season back. Edward Kambour also received the most awards
in these categories at six.
The third name in these ratings is Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings.
He helped me work out the final kinks in the formula. The second name
is David Wilson, who actually maintains the Superlists now. Where I
only kept the top twenty-five, David increased the Superlist to
include all the 1-A teams. The first name in the Superlist is just
some guy that thought up the idea (me!).
The Superlist won its second Todd Beck Prediction Tracker award last
season, both were for most retrodictive wins.
This season's contributors currently are:
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The idea behind the Superlist is to get
nine great minds together
to do what those poor BCS guys can't figure out.
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The actual positions of the teams in the
various ratings are not revealed here. For
that information please go to their sites. After all, the purpose
of the Superlist is to
promote the various ratings around the Internet.
The Superlist
The Superlist
Monday, January 9, 2012 (9 systems)
You can link to the Superlist or get permission to post it on your
site as soon as it is completed. A link to the Superlist page is
required.
The Superlist rankings are computed by David Wilson using the rankings
for the selected systems on Kenneth Massey's Ratings Comparison Page.
In the following list you will see all the 1-A teams as calculated by
the Superlist formula from this year's members. Each team's rating is
shown, followed by the average rank, followed by the median rank,
followed by the number of systems that put the team in the top thirty,
top ten, top five and top position.
If you wish to use the Superlist to guess the margin of victory of a
given game, subtract the lower team rating from the greater team
rating, then divide by two and add three points to the home team, if
any. That will give you an idea of the expected outcome based on past
performance. If you are a serious gambler, I would suggest you don't
confuse this system with a truly predictive one.
rank team rating average median top30 top10 top5 top1
1 Alabama 99.833 1.333 1.0 9 9 9 6
2 LSU 99.167 1.667 2.0 9 9 9 3
3 Oklahoma St 97.500 4.000 3.0 9 9 7 0
4 Oregon 96.333 5.333 4.0 9 9 5 0
5 Arkansas 95.667 5.667 5.0 9 8 7 0
6 Stanford 94.278 6.444 7.0 9 8 3 0
7 Boise St 93.611 8.778 6.0 9 6 2 0
8 Oklahoma 92.944 8.111 8.0 9 8 1 0
9 South Carolina 92.000 9.000 9.0 9 7 0 0
10 USC 90.389 11.222 10.0 9 4 1 0
11 Wisconsin 89.500 12.000 11.0 9 3 0 0
12 Michigan St 86.722 15.556 13.0 9 0 0 0
13 Baylor 86.444 17.111 12.0 8 3 0 0
14 TCU 85.500 16.000 15.0 9 0 0 0
15 Georgia 85.333 17.333 14.0 9 0 0 0
16 Houston 85.222 14.556 17.0 9 2 0 0
17 Michigan 84.611 16.778 16.0 8 1 0 0
18 Kansas St 84.111 15.778 18.0 9 2 1 0
19 Texas 80.389 20.222 21.0 9 0 0 0
20 Missouri 79.611 23.778 19.0 8 0 0 0
21 Texas A&M 78.778 24.444 20.0 8 0 0 0
22 Florida St 77.278 25.444 22.0 7 1 0 0
23 Auburn 77.167 24.667 23.0 7 0 0 0
24 Nebraska 75.889 24.222 26.0 8 1 0 0
25 West Virginia 75.444 26.111 25.0 8 0 0 0
26 Southern Miss 75.222 27.556 24.0 5 0 0 0
27 Virginia Tech 73.500 24.000 31.0 8 0 0 0
28 Notre Dame 73.056 28.889 27.0 6 0 0 0
29 Florida 71.722 29.556 29.0 5 0 0 0
30 Mississippi St 70.833 30.333 30.0 5 0 0 0
31 Cincinnati 69.778 34.444 28.0 4 0 0 0
32 Clemson 69.722 28.556 34.0 6 0 0 0
33 Penn St 69.667 30.667 32.0 6 0 0 0
34 BYU 66.333 36.333 33.0 0 0 0 0
35 Tulsa 65.000 37.000 35.0 0 0 0 0
36 Rutgers 62.111 40.778 37.0 0 0 0 0
37 California 60.444 41.111 40.0 1 0 0 0
38 Utah 60.278 38.444 43.0 2 0 0 0
39 Toledo 59.389 47.222 36.0 0 0 0 0
40 Iowa St 58.944 42.111 42.0 1 0 0 0
41 Louisiana Tech 58.278 47.444 38.0 0 0 0 0
42 Vanderbilt 57.444 48.111 39.0 0 0 0 0
43 Iowa 57.056 42.889 45.0 1 0 0 0
44 N Illinois 56.889 47.222 41.0 1 0 0 0
45 Washington 54.722 43.556 49.0 0 0 0 0
46 Tennessee 53.556 50.889 44.0 0 0 0 0
47 Ohio St 53.222 47.556 48.0 0 0 0 0
48 Miami FL 50.611 49.778 51.0 1 0 0 0
49 NC State 50.222 55.556 46.0 0 0 0 0
50 SMU 50.056 54.889 47.0 0 0 0 0
51 Arizona St 49.944 50.111 52.0 1 0 0 0
52 Texas Tech 49.833 52.333 50.0 0 0 0 0
53 North Carolina 49.611 48.778 54.0 0 0 0 0
54 Georgia Tech 48.944 48.111 56.0 0 0 0 0
55 Virginia 47.500 50.000 57.0 2 0 0 0
56 Temple 46.333 56.333 53.0 0 0 0 0
57 Louisville 45.667 55.667 55.0 0 0 0 0
58 UCLA 41.833 57.333 61.0 0 0 0 0
59 Illinois 41.556 56.889 62.0 0 0 0 0
60 Pittsburgh 40.111 61.778 60.0 0 0 0 0
61 Northwestern 40.056 62.889 59.0 0 0 0 0
62 Nevada 39.167 65.667 58.0 0 0 0 0
63 Purdue 38.667 60.667 64.0 0 0 0 0
64 Ohio 38.389 62.222 63.0 0 0 0 0
65 Arkansas St 37.833 58.333 68.0 0 0 0 0
66 South Florida 35.278 66.444 65.0 0 0 0 0
67 Kentucky 33.333 69.333 66.0 0 0 0 0
68 Wake Forest 33.111 68.778 67.0 0 0 0 0
69 San Diego St 33.056 66.889 69.0 0 0 0 0
70 Marshall 30.778 68.444 72.0 0 0 0 0
71 Arizona 30.611 70.778 70.0 0 0 0 0
72 Air Force 27.722 72.556 74.0 0 0 0 0
73 Navy 27.611 75.778 71.0 0 0 0 0
74 Connecticut 27.556 73.889 73.0 0 0 0 0
75 Wyoming 26.667 72.667 76.0 0 0 0 0
76 ULL 26.444 70.111 79.0 0 0 0 0
77 W Michigan 25.389 73.222 78.0 0 0 0 0
78 Utah St 24.278 78.444 75.0 0 0 0 0
79 Oregon St 21.722 78.556 80.0 0 0 0 0
80 Boston College 21.222 82.556 77.0 0 0 0 0
81 Syracuse 20.500 77.000 84.0 0 0 0 0
82 UCF 17.611 83.778 83.0 0 0 0 0
83 East Carolina 17.167 81.667 86.0 0 0 0 0
84 Minnesota 17.111 85.778 82.0 0 0 0 0
85 San Jose St 15.889 89.222 81.0 0 0 0 0
86 Washington St 15.778 83.444 87.0 0 0 0 0
87 Ball St 15.500 86.000 85.0 0 0 0 0
88 W Kentucky 14.611 82.778 90.0 0 0 0 0
89 Florida Intl 12.167 84.667 93.0 0 0 0 0
90 Kansas 11.556 86.889 92.0 0 0 0 0
91 Bowling Green 10.833 89.333 91.0 0 0 0 0
92 Mississippi 10.667 92.667 88.0 0 0 0 0
93 Colorado 10.667 91.667 89.0 0 0 0 0
94 Rice 8.000 90.000 96.0 0 0 0 0
95 Hawaii 7.556 92.889 94.0 0 0 0 0
96 UTEP 6.000 95.000 95.0 0 0 0 0
97 Fresno St 4.444 96.111 97.0 0 0 0 0
98 E Michigan 3.333 96.333 99.0 0 0 0 0
99 Duke 3.222 94.556 101.0 0 0 0 0
100 Miami OH 2.833 98.333 98.0 0 0 0 0
101 Kent 2.389 97.222 100.0 0 0 0 0
102 Maryland 0.333 99.333 102.0 0 0 0 0
103 North Texas -0.722 98.444 105.0 0 0 0 0
104 Army -1.722 101.444 104.0 0 0 0 0
105 ULM -2.778 101.556 106.0 0 0 0 0
106 New Mexico St -3.056 105.111 103.0 0 0 0 0
107 C Michigan -7.222 108.444 108.0 0 0 0 0
108 UAB -7.667 107.333 110.0 0 0 0 0
109 Idaho -8.111 111.222 107.0 0 0 0 0
110 Buffalo -9.000 111.000 109.0 0 0 0 0
111 Troy -9.722 108.444 113.0 0 0 0 0
112 Colorado St -9.778 110.556 111.0 0 0 0 0
113 Indiana -10.500 111.000 112.0 0 0 0 0
114 UNLV -11.500 111.000 114.0 0 0 0 0
115 Middle Tenn St -14.222 112.444 118.0 0 0 0 0
116 New Mexico -14.889 116.778 115.0 0 0 0 0
117 Memphis -15.611 117.222 116.0 0 0 0 0
118 Tulane -15.833 116.667 117.0 0 0 0 0
119 FL Atlantic -16.556 116.111 119.0 0 0 0 0
120 Akron -19.000 120.000 120.0 0 0 0 0
The Superlist is compiled from excellent computer rating systems.
Retrodictive systems judge all games are treated equally through the
season and margins of victory are not included. Predictive means that
games are weighted toward the end of the season to reflect their
current strength instead of their average strength throughout the
season as retrodictive ones do. Predictive systems do consider margins
of victory. These are only general observations of retrodictive and
predictive systems. Individual systems may not fit this description
exactly.
rating = the fabricated points issued to each team according to the
Superlist formula. If a team wins the number one position in all
rating systems it will score 100. If a team wins all number two
positions it will score 99. With all number thirty positions a team
would score 71.
rating = 101 - 0.5*(average + median)
average = average ranking by the systems.
median = the middle point at which half the systems awarding the team
a position would show a higher position and half would award it a
lower one. For example, if there were three systems and a team had
positions 18, 24, and 25, the median position would be the middle one
- 24. If there are an even number of systems the two middle numbers
are averaged for the median. That moves one system above the median
and one system below the median unless both systems assign the team
the same position. Examples:
4, 5, 8, and 9 would yield a median of 6.5.
4, 6, 6, and 20 would become 6.
The systems included in the Superlist are:
Minimum Violations (MinV) College Football Ranking
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/minv.htm
Bruce Payne's Ratings
http://knology.net/~brucepayne/PayneRatings.htm
NCAA Division IA Football Power Ratings
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm
The Dr. Edward Kambour NCAA Football Ratings
http://www.kambour.net/football.html
Massey Ratings
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=IA&mid=6
F.A.C.T.
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/rothman.txt
Nutshell Sports
http://www.nutshellsports.com/ncaafb.html
David Wilson's Performance Ratings
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/perform/byrate.html
2010 College Football
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/home.htm
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The Superlist was conceived and formulated by Ray Waits of Nutshell Sports
Ratings and consultant Stewart Huckaby of ARGH Ratings. It is the
property
of Ray Waits and
David Wilson.
YourLinx Ratings can be found at:
http://www.nutshellsports.com/
Your comments are welcomed:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
_________________________________________
Feel free to distribute this to your friends. Better yet, tell them
where they can subscribe. They will receive sports ratings year round.
Sports pages you just can't miss:
David Wilson's American College Football - Rankings List
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/oth_sites/rate/
Everything you ever wanted to know about College Football
http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/rsfc/
Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Kenneth Massey's College Basketball Ranking Comparison
http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm
NFL and NCAA Football Prediction Trackers
http://tbeck.freeshell.org/
Jon Dokter's Players' Poll Proposal
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/~dokter/sw/newpoll.html
Ray Wait's MegaRanking (BCS alternative)
http://www.nutshellsports.com/bcs.html
Know of another great sports page that should be listed here? Send it
to me at:
ray@ebarrelracing.com
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